Despite a star-studded cast, including four $10-million AAV forwards — Auston Matthews, Mitch Marner, William Nylander, and John Tavares — the Toronto Maple Leafs’ power play sits at a below-average 19.8% success rate. Sure, they still sit first in the Atlantic Division with a 19-10-2 record — good for a .645 win percentage — but, their record is thanks to great defence more than the offensive dominance that fans have grown accustomed to. The Maple Leafs allow the sixth-fewest goals against in the league but are scoring at a clip that is only good enough for 19th. A big reason for that is their lacklustre power play, which, should it be improved, would bolster the team’s success.
Maple Leafs Five Forward Experiment Did Not Work
For a few games, the Maple Leafs tried an experiment; they sent the usual power-play quarterback Morgan Rielly down to the second unit and stuck the Core Four with Matthew Knies, running a five-forward unit. The setup was more or less conventional, except that Marner took over the quarterback position rather than a defenseman. That experiment is generating over two expected goals (xG) less per 60 minutes than on the season. On top of that, they only had a 60% goal share (GF%), indicating that 40% of the goals when that unit was on the ice were for the opposition — they only outscored opponents 3-2.
Related: Is the Maple Leafs’ Heavy Second Line Built for the Playoffs?
Thankfully, this experiment came to an end in the Maple Leafs’ last game, and the power play improved drastically. They scored a power-play goal on four opportunities, which, while perhaps not ideal, is already an improvement on the 19.8% clip they’ve been operating at all season. It’s undoubtedly the right move, moving Marner back to the flank and putting Rielly back in the quarterback position — Rielly is a better blue-line puck distributor and Marner can use his shot and cross-seam playmaking ability to more of an advantage.
Maple Leafs Underlying Numbers Suggest Positive Regression
That said, the Maple Leafs’ power play as a whole has some good underlying statistics this season. Despite the middling ranking in scoring efficiency, they rank fourth in the NHL in expected goals for per 60 minutes (xGF/60) at 9.18, which is very close to second in the league — the Tampa Bay Lightning at 9.54. They’re generating the second-most scoring chances per 60 minutes (SCF/60) and second-most high-danger scoring chances per 60 minutes (HDCF/60), both to the New Jersey Devils.
With certain players, the power play looks even more dominant. While Rielly has been the team’s undisputed power-play quarterback over the past few seasons, I think Oliver Ekman-Larsson is worth those duties. With him and the Core Four on the ice on the power play, the Maple Leafs are generating over 13 xGF/60, which would rank first in the NHL.
A lot of the issue also boils down to shooting. With some of the best shooters in the NHL in Matthews, Marner, and Nylander and one of the league’s best puck-tippers in Tavares, one would expect their power-play shooting percentage would be higher than 21st-ranked. A big part of this can be attributed to Matthews’ nine-game absence due to injury, sure, but I think it is more a product of poor luck than anything else. Eventually, the results will follow the underlying statistics, and the Maple Leafs will climb up from their middling power-play percentage.
Maple Leafs’ Man Advantage Not a Worry Moving Forward
Now that everyone is healthy, Marner is putting up an MVP season, and Matthews is playing at a level closer to his status as a top-three NHL talent, there is no reason to worry about the the Maple Leafs’ power play. Sure, there are some things they can do to optimize their success — putting Ekman-Larsson as the quarterback over Rielly, for one — their season-long metrics show that there is much more in the tank than what the results show so far in 2024-25.
As a result of this likely improvement to the man-advantage percentage, their offensive output should improve on a game-to-game basis, and their record should continue to climb. Once they get their power play rolling, their status as true Cup contenders should be unquestioned.
