In this edition of Toronto Maple Leafs News & Rumors, I’ll take a look at the following topics. First, I’ll share that the Maple Leafs’ odds of winning the Stanley Cup have decreased in the eyes of oddsmakers following the departure of several free agents. The team’s odds dropped from 10/1 to 14/1, reflecting their concerns about their roster changes and the potential impact on their strength and depth.
Second, I look at the Maple Leafs’ current negotiations with forward William Nylander. He is seeking a salary of $10 million or more, while the team aims to stay under $9 million. If an agreement is not reached before training camp in September, a trade might be considered.
Item One: Maple Leafs’ Odds of Winning Stanley Cup Dropped This Month
The Maple Leafs’ odds of winning the Stanley Cup experienced a significant drop in the eyes of oddsmakers following the departure of several free agents in early July. Initially, Betonline.ag had the Leafs at 10/1 odds. That placed them in the favourite position alongside the Colorado Avalanche and Edmonton Oilers. However, the team’s odds decreased to 14/1 within the past few weeks.
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The revised odds now put the Maple Leafs behind the Avalanche (8/1), the Carolina Hurricanes, New Jersey Devils, and the Oilers (all at 9/1). Finally, the reigning Stanley Cup champion Vegas Golden Knights (at 10/1) and the New York Rangers are listed at 12/1. The Maple Leafs are tied with the Tampa Bay Lightning at 14/1.
This significant change in what the oddsmakers think reflects the impact of the Maple Leafs losing key free agents. Now there are some concerns about the team’s strength and depth heading into the 2023-24 regular season. Interestingly, while the Maple Leafs’ fanbase seems pleased with the changes the team has made, the oddsmakers’ expectations are nowhere near as positive.
(The Hockey Writers)
Not that being chosen as the favourite to win the Cup is any kind of deal at all; however, it’s interesting to see how others see the team. There are still additional moves that new Maple Leafs’ general manager (GM) Brad Treliving is likely to make to improve the team. It will be interesting to see how the oddsmakers see their chances of winning the Stanley Cup when all is said and done in building this roster.
Item Two: Nylander and the Maple Leafs Keep Talking, But …
The Maple Leafs are currently engaged in contract negotiations with forward Nylander. Speculation suggests that he is seeking a salary of $10 million, while the team aims to stay under $9 million.
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During the previous contract negotiation, Nylander held out and missed the first two months of the season before signing a deal worth $6.9 million per season. In the end, this contract proved to be a bargain for the Maple Leafs because Nylander has consistently scored 30 or more goals and set career highs in goals and points over the past two years.
Finding that middle ground seems tough for the Maple Leafs and for Nylander. His past performance and his projected future contributions would seem to support his claim for more money than the team wishes to offer. However, it would seem that the Maple Leafs will hold fast – if only because they have to. In the end, the dollar figure might exceed what Toronto can afford within its salary cap constraints.
The Maple Leafs ideally want to keep the Swedish forward; however, it might be that he’d prefer to move on if he’s only to be the third wheel in Toronto and he could be the star on another team. If Nylander does re-sign here, it might be for a short contract. The fact is that there’s only one reason for him to rush into re-signing a new contract. That would be because he desperately wants to play in a blue and white jersey.
My guess is that, while he’d like to stay put, he isn’t willing to be subjugated to a lesser place on the team’s wish list. I fully expect Nylander to move either of his own accord (because he chooses to leave) or because GM Treliving isn’t one to allow contract talks to drag on and he’s been burned before. If an agreement isn’t reached before training camp in September, Nylander could be traded.
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That said, it will be challenging for the Maple Leafs to find equal value in return. Sure, trading Nylander will provide salary-cap relief, but the team might just keep him around for a while just in case they have a great season and want to head into the postseason with their big guns loaded. If they can’t get equal value for him in a trade, they might sign a strong free agent during the offseason using his potential salary should he walk.
What’s Next for the Maple Leafs?
One answer to what’s upcoming for the Maple Leafs is this summer’s Mitch Marner wedding. In a recent interview, Marner discussed his relationships with teammates Auston Matthews and Nylander. When asked about their contract negotiations, he shared that he had not spoken to them directly about it.
Instead, Marner seemed to prioritize their friendship with him over their roles as his teammates. He was concerned about whether his friends would be able to attend his upcoming wedding. However, he was optimistic that both Matthews and Nylander would be able to work things out positively in terms of their signings.