The Toronto Maple Leafs are coming off a disappointing loss to the Florida Panthers. The team has now dropped four of its last five games. Despite a strong start, with John Tavares scoring early in the first period, the Maple Leafs found themselves behind 3-1 after a pair of Florida power-play goals. They struggled to capitalize on their own power play, going 0-for-3. That proved to be the difference between winning and losing the game.
Max Domi, who scored Toronto’s second goal and was involved in a first-period fight, called it “as close to a playoff game as you’re going to get.” While Domi and his teammates battled hard, head coach Craig Berube acknowledged the need to clean up their penalty kill, particularly after late-period goals that can be “huge momentum killers.”
Item One: Against the Panthers: A Close, Hard-Fought Loss
The truth is that the Maple Leafs played a solid game against Florida, despite the close loss. Toronto opened the scoring, but the Panthers controlled the first period. The second period saw a more even matchup, with Toronto improving as the game went on. In the third period, the Maple Leafs dominated but failed to convert on their chances.
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If the goalposts and crossbars were the game’s objectives, Toronto would’ve won 3-1. Panthers goalie Sergei Bobrovsky also had a few fortunate saves where he looked in a different direction, and the puck hit him. On the other hand, Maple Leafs goalie Anthony Stolarz was caught looking the wrong way and allowed a shot to beat him. It happens.
Looking at the stats, in the first period, the Panthers led with 10-3 scoring chances and 3-1 high-danger chances. The second period was more balanced, with the Maple Leafs holding an 11-10 edge in scoring chances and 6-3 high-danger chances. The third period saw Toronto dominate with 11-4 scoring chances and 4-0 high-danger chances. The stats reflect a hard-fought game, but unfortunately, the Maple Leafs couldn’t score when they needed to. That’s an issue, but perhaps not as big as fans and hockey writers seem to believe.
Item Two: The Dilemma of Regular-Season Importance
As my often co-writer Stan Smith noted to me in an email exchange, why is it that the regular season doesn’t seem to matter when the Maple Leafs are on a hot streak? When the Maple Leafs are winning, it’s all about the playoffs. But when the team struggles or loses a game, suddenly, the regular season becomes crucial. It’s a perplexing double standard that many fans and analysts fall into.
(Jess Starr/The Hockey Writers)
Expectations can sometimes feel inconsistent, mainly when a team performs well but hits a rough patch. As Domi put it, that’s playoff hockey. Balancing the importance of regular-season success and playoff aspirations is a constant challenge. That said, in the end, both phases are crucial for building momentum and positioning.
Item Three: Matthews’ Struggles: What’s Going On?
What’s happening with Auston Matthews? Is he injured? Is the pressure of wearing the “C” getting to him? Why isn’t he scoring as he usually does? Matthews has been held off the scoresheet for the past two games, which is rare for him.
Before that, he had a 12-game point streak, putting up 18 points. That pace would project to 123 points over an entire 82-game season. However, he only scored three goals in that stretch, which is concerning for a player of his skillset. Despite this, his assists were impressive, projecting to over 100 in an 82-game season.
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Matthews’ 5-on-5 numbers have dipped slightly, with his Goals For Percentage dropping from 61.5% to 56% and his Expected Goals For Percentage falling from 56.4% to 53.7%. However, his Scoring Chances and High-Danger Chances have increased, suggesting he still gets opportunities. A significant factor in Matthews’ reduced scoring could be the system he’s playing under, with coach Berube placing a greater emphasis on defense. Matthews now spends more time killing penalties, which has reduced his 5-on-5 ice time by over a minute per game. Additionally, his faceoff percentage in the offensive zone has dropped from 58.7% to 55%.
We also know that Matthews has been dealing with some health issues recently, which could be affecting his performance. Nevertheless, if we look at his overall play, his numbers are still solid, except for the goals. Maybe it’s time to give him a break and let him work through these adjustments.
What’s Next for the Maple Leafs?
The Maple Leafs meet the Ottawa Senators tonight. Ottawa is on a roll and looking to extend their impressive five-game winning streak as they head into enemy territory. With playoff aspirations firmly in sight, the Senators are riding high after a dominant 6-3 victory over the Boston Bruins on Thursday. They have now gone 6-0-1 in their past seven games, further solidifying their bid for a postseason spot for the first time since 2017.
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In a significant confidence boost, Ottawa has already triumphed over the Maple Leafs in both games this season, outscoring their provincial rivals 3-0 in Toronto on Nov. 12 and securing a narrow 2-1 victory in Ottawa on Jan. 25. In fact, the Senators have won four straight games in this historic rivalry, much to the Maple Leafs’ dismay. Tonight’s battle should be a good one.
[Note: I want to thank long-time Maple Leafs fan Stan Smith for collaborating with me on this post. Stan’s Facebook profile can be found here.]
