The Toronto Maple Leafs are navigating a pivotal offseason—one that might be remembered as the end of the “Core Four” era. Mitch Marner is gone. The return—while intriguing—doesn’t carry the same star wattage. In his place? More balance, more grit, and maybe a more straightforward path forward for young talents like Matthew Knies.
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This week’s roundup looks at where the Maple Leafs stand in the eyes of league analysts, highlights a key prospect signing, and celebrates a well-deserved nod for Knies. We’ll also check in on how the Montreal Canadiens and Ottawa Senators are repositioning themselves in the Atlantic Division pecking order.
Item One: The Marner Gap: Maple Leafs Slide in Offseason Net Rating
According to The Athletic’s offseason net rating analysis, the Maple Leafs suffered one of the most significant declines in the NHL this summer, posting a net rating of minus-13. The reason is simple: Marner is out, and no equivalent top-six forward is coming in.
Toronto did well to acquire Matias Maccelli and Nicolas Roy, both solid additions to the depth with offensive upside. But neither replaces Marner’s all-situations impact or creativity. The Maple Leafs now appear to be a solid playoff team, but one that has drifted out of the tier of Stanley Cup contenders. The piece suggests they’re now closer to rebuilding clubs like the Senators and the Canadiens than to rivals like the Florida Panthers and Tampa Bay Lightning—sobering stuff. If The Athletic is right, it could be a long season for the Maple Leafs. [Source: The Athletic, July 16, 2025 – Dom Luszczyszyn]
Item Two: Miroslav Holinka Signs Entry-Level Deal with the Maple Leafs
This week, the Maple Leafs added to their long-term pipeline by signing Miroslav Holinka to a three-year entry-level contract. The 19-year-old Czech forward was a fifth-round pick (151st overall) in the 2024 NHL Draft and had an impressive season with the Western Hockey League’s Edmonton Oil Kings, putting up 45 points in 47 games.
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Holinka is expected to return to junior for the 2025–26 season, but the organization likes his hockey sense and ability to find space in high-danger areas. This isn’t a headline-grabbing move, but it’s the kind of foundational development work every successful team needs to keep pace over the long haul.
Item Three: Knies Named a Top-10 Under-25 Forward by NHL.com
With Marner gone, Knies is stepping into the spotlight—and NHL.com has taken notice. The 22-year-old was named the No. 8 forward under 25 entering the 2025–26 season, joining a list that includes Tim Stützle, Jack Hughes, and Matthew Boldy.
(Photo by Maddie Meyer/Getty Images)
Knies is coming off a 29-goal, 58-point season in which he led the Maple Leafs in hits among forwards and scored five playoff goals. He’s quickly becoming the kind of power forward teams build around: skilled, physical, and increasingly confident. Now signed through 2031 at $7.75 million average annual value (AAV), Knies is being counted on not just to produce, but to lead.
Item Four: Checking in on Canada’s Atlantic Teams: Maple Leafs Holding Ground, Habs Rising, Senators Waiting
Among Canadian teams in the Atlantic Division, the Maple Leafs made the loudest noise with the Marner deal. As noted, they brought in Maccelli and Roy, retained John Tavares at a discount, and extended Knies. However, even with those moves, their ceiling appears to be lower than in recent years. They’re in the mix, but the path to dominance looks less clear.
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The Canadiens, on the other hand, are on the rise. They acquired top-pair defenceman Noah Dobson from the New York Islanders and added promising young forward Zach Bolduc. Combined with Calder Trophy winner Lane Hutson, Montreal’s rebuild may be arriving ahead of schedule.
The Senators are taking a more cautious approach. They brought back Fabian Zetterlund, added Jordan Spence, and appear to be saving their big swing for the 2026 free-agent class. They pushed the Maple Leafs to a six-game series last spring and could be building toward another step forward.
What’s Next for the Maple Leafs?
There’s still time to tweak the roster before training camp. The Maple Leafs may yet explore trade options or seek professional tryout (PTO) bargains as camps approach. But for now, Toronto is counting on internal growth—from Knies, Roy, Nicholas Robertson, and maybe even Easton Cowan—to help offset the loss of Marner.
It’s not the loudest offseason Toronto has had, but it may prove to be one of the more honest. Less flash, more function. The question now is whether that new direction will be enough to win come April.
