There was an interesting debate between sports analysts, insiders, and hosts this week as TSN’s First Up crew contemplated who the Toronto Maple Leafs were more likely to sign. Assuming the team could only sign one, which player had the better chance of sticking with the team after this coming season? The hosts wanted hockey insider Chris Johnston to break the tie.
Both Tavares and Marner will see their respective contracts come to an end in 2024-25. Tavares just gave up his captaincy to Auston Matthews and might sign a team-friendly deal. Meanwhile, Marner has more prime years ahead of him, but likely wants big bucks. He’s the more elite player at this point in his career, but he’ll be costly.
Who does the organization keep?
Here are the arguments made for each and then a prediction as to who I believe might be a Maple Leaf in 2025 and beyond.
John Tavares Is More Affordable
Despite the fact he’s unlikely to produce at the same high level expected of Marner, John Tavares still offers production but at a reduced rate. The expectation is that he’ll sign a team-friendly deal, which could be a fraction of his current $11 million contract and that could be useful for the Leafs who want to properly juggle their salary cap situation.
Related: Maple Leafs’ Reputation Hinges on Their Treatment of Tavares
Chris Johnston chose Tavares because he wasn’t sure the Leafs could accommodate the kind of deal Marner might want. So too, Tavares was a gamer when he gave up his captaincy and showed such grace in doing so. Johnston suggested he handled it well and is highly motivated to stay in Toronto. There’s something to be said for rewarding a player who has shown nothing but loyalty and professionalism during his tenure, especially if he’s willing to keep making sacrifices.
Marner Is Too Good to Just Let Leave
Frank Corrado leaned towards Marner, suggesting his status as one the best right wingers in the NHL was reason enough to choose him over Tavares. If things change in the playoffs and the Maple Leafs find success, Marner will be a key contributor and make a case that he should get what he wants. Even if the Leafs don’t find success, there’s a fear that Marner will win with another franchise during their playoff run and that would be devastating for the Maple Leafs.
Corrado seems to be going with the FOMO (fear of missing out) theory. His argument that losing Marner’s production would be too costly for the Leafs is reason enough to meet Marner’s potentially high salary demands. Essentially, if you have the better player, do what you can to keep the better player.
Maple Leafs Likely Keep Tavares
Knowing I can’t choose both in this scenario (I probably would if allowed), I’ll choose Tavares as the player the Maple Leafs keep. As much as Marner says he wants to stay in Toronto, when push comes to shove and if money becomes the main hurdle in both sets of negotiations, Tavares will bend more.
The Maple Leafs don’t have to sign him to a long-term deal and they’ll get him at a highly-reduced number. This isn’t a Steven Stamkos situation in Tampa Bay where the player feels slighted. This is an understanding between two parties that finding an agreement is what both sides want, but the player is going to have to make a sacrifice to stay. Marmer may not be as agreeable with the number of teams that will come looking, a higher salary cap that will create an offer too tempting to ignore and one that the Maple Leafs potentially don’t match.
