As the calendar changes from pumpkin-spice to peppermint hot chocolate, the only thing standing between us and 24-hour holiday music stations is the all-important month of November. The Devils finished October with an impressive 5-2-1 record. They were impressive in that they could glean 11 points out of eight games in which they largely played less than their best hockey. For years pundits have used American Thanksgiving as the point when teams must be ensconced in a playoff position or face an uphill climb to reach the postseason.
The Devils currently sit in third place in the Metropolitan Division but are second in points percentage due to having played fewer games than the teams ahead of them. The New York Rangers sit atop the division after an undefeated road trip through Seattle and Western Canada. The Devils now head out on the road for ten days, where they are thus far undefeated and have seemed to play more complete games over the last two seasons.
Hitting the Road
After an extended four-day break, the Devils will travel to Minnesota to take on the Wild starting a two-week run of games where they will play seven games in 15 days, six of which are on the road. The month easily breaks down into three sections, the first two weeks on the road, the middle of the month featuring a showdown with the current division-leading Rangers at home on Saturday, Nov. 18, then the final ten days of the month ending with the front half of a back-to-back.
In the first section of the month, the team travels to the American Midwest facing off against the Wild, St. Louis Blues, Chicago Blackhawks, and ending in Denver against the Colorado Avalanche six days later. Reports out of this week’s practices are that Nico Hischier will not join the team on the road, which will certainly impact all three phases of the Devils game. Other than the Avalanche, none of the teams are in the top 20 of the NHL in point percentage. The immediate rematch with the Wild is noteworthy as they are getting healthier as Matt Boldy is expected to return against New Jersey. The teams are a combined 6-4-1 at home thus far, and each team is currently coming off a loss in their prior game. With New Jersey’s penchant for playing well on the road, this is a great opportunity for them to continue to bank early points.
Toughest Matchup: Colorado Avalanche
Only one of the four teams has a winning record, the Avalanche. The 2022 Stanley Cup champions are off to a quick start and are undefeated at home. This coupled with playing at altitude in the fourth game in six days spells trouble for New Jersey. There will also likely be some extra motivation for former Devils Miles Wood and Tomas Tatar in the game as well.
Fun With Stats
The Avalanche, Blackhawks, and Blues are all in the top 14 in the NHL in penalty kill percentage, however, each of them is significantly better at the kill on the road, with the Blues coming in at just 42% at home, good enough to place 32nd in the league. The Wild have the opposite experience as their kill percentage rises 23% at home vs. the road. With the Devils sporting the top PP in the league, this will be an important stat to keep an eye on.
Prediction: Devils will go 3-1 with one victory coming in overtime.
Showdown Time
After four games in six days, the Devils will have two days off before returning home to face the Washington Capitals with a chance to find redemption from their poorest outing of the season. This is followed by a three-day weekend without a game then three games in five nights, including trips to Winnipeg then Pittsburgh, and ending with a Saturday night matchup with the current division-leading Rangers at the Prudential Center.
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Another chance at the Capitals is one that the Devils should have circled on their calendar. It will be their first home game in almost two weeks and they likely want to prove that they cannot be outworked again by an older, slower team in Washington. The ensuing road trip will take the Devils on an oddly-timed jaunt to Winnipeg followed by a reunion with old friend Ryan Graves in Pittsburgh. The Jets are currently in a playoff position and have thus far outperformed expectations, but the underlying numbers tell a different story as the team has a negative goal-differential. The Penguins are so far the biggest disappointment in the NHL, sitting dead last in the Eastern Conference with only six points in nine games. There is time to right the ship, but as Yogi Berra said, “It is getting late, early.”
The Rangers are thus far the class of the Metropolitan Division and new head coach Peter Laviolette has pushed all the right buttons. The rematch of last season’s first-round playoff series is the most anticipated game of the early season. The Rangers are currently riding a five-game winning streak and are three points clear of the Devils. There is a chance that their first contest is a battle for first in the division. The teams are very familiar with each other and will likely have to go through each other at some point on the path to the Eastern Conference Final.
Toughest Matchup: New York Rangers
The only team in this segment with a record better than the Devils. The cross-river rivals, on a Saturday night with a crowd likely 70/30 Devils fans should be an environment not to be missed. The Rangers will have a chip on their shoulder after losing to the Devils in last season’s playoffs, a loss the Rangers did not anticipate. The game will be a good early-season barometer for where the Devils are at this point.
Fun With Stats
The Penguins and Jets are a combined 4-6-1 at home. Those two games are huge opportunities for the Devils to bank early points and continue to put distance between themselves and the Penguins, a team they matched up well against last season. Both Winnipeg and Pittsburgh are net negative in goals and neither averages three goals per game.
Prediction: 3-0-1
The Home Stretch
The Devils close out the month with five games in eight days, three of which will be at home. The two road games are a Thanksgiving Eve tilt in Detroit and a Nov. 30 game in Philadelphia as the first half of a back-to-back concluding the next night at home against the currently winless San Jose Sharks. The highlights of this stretch are three games in four days where they will play back-to-back games on Black Friday afternoon against the Columbus Blue Jackets followed the next day by another visit from the Buffalo Sabres.
This schedule, much like the other parts of the month, offers early opportunities for rest followed by a frenzy of games in a short period of time. The team will benefit from the additional practice time and rest but will be challenged when playing Buffalo in the second half of a back-to-back followed by a physical Islanders team three nights later. The Buffalo game will come with significance as new villain Connor Clifton will make his first return to the Prudential Center after illegally hitting Nico Hischier in the head causing the captain to miss significant time and costing Clifton two games without pay. The crowd and his teammates will likely be out to settle a score with Clifton as he never saw the ice after his hit on Hischier.
The stretch of games will also feature the first return of defenseman Damon Severson to the Prudential Center alongside another Devils villain in Johnny Gaudreau. Last season the crowd mercilessly booed Gaudreau every time he touched the puck and the Devils blew out the Blue Jackets in Newark both times they played. The Devils will also get their first look at future Stadium Series opponent, the Philadelphia Flyers. The Flyers have so far been one of the positive surprises of the season as John Tortorella’s team has refused to just fit into the rebuilding box many placed them in. With the return of Sean Couturier and the growth of Owen Tippett, they have become a legitimate threat.
Toughest Matchup: New York Islanders
Stylistically the Islanders give the Devils fits. They attempt to impose their will on teams by keeping scores low and looking to counterattack. This year’s version of the Islanders is a little looser than the ones over the last few years but they still have Ilya Sorokin in net, which is how they can win games despite only scoring 21 goals in eight games.
Fun with Stats
If things do not change (which is unlikely) when the Devils take on the Detroit Red Wings, the game will feature four of the top seven in points in the NHL and two teams averaging more than four goals per game. The opening night contest was a bit wild and uneven but the skill on both sides is undeniable as is shown by both being in the top four in power play percentage.
Prediction: 3-1-1
November will go a long way in determining if the Devils are solidified as a playoff team or have to spend the winter chasing a ticket for the tournament. A month as predicted of 9-2-1 would go a long way towards putting them in the driver’s seat for contention.
