New York Rangers’ Bottom Six Still Has An Eeli Tolvanen Hole

Twenty-two days is a long time for a 27-year-old depth piece to sit as an unrestricted free agent. Teams looked at Eeli Tolvanen, and the New York Rangers were among them, and every one of them found a reason to pass. But just because you take a first look and pass doesn’t mean the Rangers shouldn’t circle back for a second look as the days tick on.

What The League Sees

I think the first thing we have to admit when taking a second look at Tolvanen is the fact that he doesn’t do much with the puck. THW’s Alex Chauvancy put it exactly that way in early July while ranking him among the best remaining free agents. He’s a finisher with a shot that often gets called underrated.

Seattle controlled 37.5 percent of the expected goals at five-on-five with Tolvanen on the ice, which is not a figure you explain away with bad luck or a bad team. He finished a career-worst minus-18. His last three seasons produced 41, 35 and 36 points, which puts him more in the category of a bottom-six forward, which is where he often sat for Seattle.

The Sporting News raised the other flag: at a listed 5-10 and 182 pounds, nobody’s confident about how a defensive-minded winger that size ages. Teams paying for depth want to know what kind of player they are getting if signed for multiple years.

Then there’s the term. David Pagnotta reported on July 1 that Tolvanen was weighing offers in the four- and five-year range with nothing close to done. Twenty-two days later, still nothing. So with that much time passing, you can start to see some wiggle room in the deal he wants.

The Nashville Predators drafted him 30th overall in 2017 after he set a Kontinental Hockey League (KHL) scoring record for an 18-year-old with Jokerit, and then waived him at 23. Ron Francis claimed him. He played for three head coaches in three-plus seasons in Seattle without ever being anybody’s plan. He’s been a useful answer to somebody else’s question for his entire professional life. That is also where I can begin to see Tolvanen as a depth piece that can slide into someone’s roster as a final addition. And here is why I see the Rangers as being the perfect team to make that final addition.

Why That Doesn’t Disqualify Him In New York

Back in May, Mike Sullivan and Chris Drury both named the same offseason priority. Sullivan said he was satisfied with his point producers and pointed at the bottom six and a puck-moving defenseman. Drury has since gone out and solved the blue line, bringing in Marcus Pettersson and Sean Durzi, re-signing Braden Schneider at $5.5 million, and drafting Alberts Smits fifth overall. He solved the top of the lineup by trading for Pavel Dorofeyev. He solved the crease by adding Joonas Korpisalo.

The bottom-six is the one thing on his own list he hasn’t touched. Oliver Bjorkstrand and Joseph Veleno are the additions, and lineup projections still show an open right wing on the third line.

Now consider what the Rangers actually need that player to do. Not drive a line. Dorofeyev, Mika Zibanejad, J.T. Miller, Alexis Lafreniere, and Gabe Perreault are the puck carriers. What they need is somebody in the bottom half of the lineup who finishes what gets created, kills penalties and doesn’t sink the shift. Tolvanen recorded 22 of his 36 points at five-on-five last season, and 77 of his 92 career goals are even-strength scores. He was second on Seattle with 187 hits. He’s missed six games in three years.

Also, there is the benefit of a veteran that can slide up the lines in times of crisis. The Rangers scored 238 goals last season and finished 23rd in the league. Miller dropped to 17 goals and a team-worst minus-30 in 68 games at 33. Adam Fox missed 27 games. Matt Rempe is on injured reserve right now with a thumb problem. Sullivan is going to hand meaningful minutes to Noah Laba, Jaroslav Chmelar, Perreault and Tye Kartye across an 84-game schedule that starts in late September, and at least one of them is going to struggle. A veteran who can slide up two lines without breaking anything is the cheapest way to survive that.

What He’s Worth

Chris Johnston ranked Tolvanen the 25th-best free agent this summer and projected two years at $7.2 million. Anthony Mantha, the other winger the Rangers poked around on, signed two years at $4.75 million in New Jersey. Vince Mercogliano reported Drury wanted a one-year deal in the $3 to $4 million range and spent it on Bjorkstrand at $4.5 million instead.

So the market on Tolvanen was mid-$3 million with term. He’s still available because he wanted more of it than anyone would give.

At $3.5 million, the Rangers would be paying that market price for a player the market just rejected, and doing it with $2,402,976 in space and 22 of 23 roster spots filled, meaning a trade first and then no room to carry a 23rd man. At $2.5 million, and a trade, leaves roughly $1.4 million, which covers a spare forward at minimum and accrues into February.

The $1 million between those numbers is the discount for everything in the first half of this article. Tolvanen’s camp will take it eventually, because a player without a job three weeks before camp will most likely sign the best one-year offer in front of him.

Drury told reporters after the July 1 flurry that he’s still tinkering and still looking, and that he’ll take any way he can find to help this team before opening night. There isn’t much left out there worth taking. Patrik Laine is a different kind of gamble at a similar price, and a Patrick Kane reunion isn’t happening. The one useful player still on the board is the one whose flaws are priced into the number, and the Rangers are the rare club with an open spot, money with nowhere else to go, and no reason to need him to be more than he is.