The NHL Trade Deadline is still about two months away, but there’ll be a wrinkle this season. For the first time in over a decade, NHLers will be participating in the Winter Olympics. With that comes another roster freeze, which takes effect on Feb. 4 and lasts until Feb. 22, when the Olympics conclude.
That will leave about two weeks until the official trade deadline. That’s not a lot of time for teams to get business done, so could Feb. 4 act as an unofficial early trade deadline? A couple of teams got business done ahead of the Christmas roster freeze on Dec. 19, and it wouldn’t be a shock if something similar occurred in the weeks ahead of Feb. 4.
The First Seller Will Reap the Rewards
If there’s one word to describe the NHL this season, it’s parity. Aside from a few teams, almost everyone remains in the playoff picture in the Eastern and Western Conferences. The only teams truly out of it in the West are the Vancouver Canucks, Winnipeg Jets, and Calgary Flames. The cutoff in the West could be as low as 85-90 points, so everyone still has a chance…sort of.
Though most teams are in it based on points, how likely are they to qualify? For example, the St. Louis Blues have a goal differential of -43. Are they going to qualify for the playoffs? Probably not. The Nashville Predators have righted the ship, but they still have a -22 goal differential and remain a long shot to qualify for the postseason.
In the East, every team remains at NHL .500 or better to begin the calendar year 2026. But like the West, who’s really in it? The New Jersey Devils have the worst goal differential in the East at -19, though that number skyrocketed after Jacob Markström allowed nine goals in a 9-0 loss to the New York Islanders. Meanwhile, the Columbus Blue Jackets are at -13. Neither team is out of it, but goal differential is usually quite predictive of future success.
Related: NHL Trade Bait List for 2026 Trade Deadline
Why does this matter? Because, barring something unforeseen, this will be a seller’s market this trade deadline, since so many teams remain in the hunt. The sooner some teams realize it’s best to sell, the more likely they are to reap the rewards, and that’s why they could look to deal before the Feb. 4 Olympic roster freeze.
Of course, it can sometimes be difficult to convince ownership to sell that far ahead of the trade deadline. But if you’re a bubble team that doesn’t have a realistic chance of making the playoffs or doing anything if you qualify, it might be best for the long-term future of that organization.
Take the New York Rangers, for example. A long-term injury to Adam Fox and a less serious one to Igor Shesterkin could be the nail in the coffin for their season. I wouldn’t expect them to sell now, but if they slip and are out of the playoff picture a week before Feb. 4, do they begin a sell-off? It’d probably be smart on their part if that’s how the next few weeks unfold.
It’s not just the Rangers who could be trending toward missing the postseason by then, either. There hasn’t been much separation in the standings so far, but that will change eventually. The math dictates that it will, and that will give us a clearer picture of who could decide to sell before Feb. 4.
Which Players Could Get Dealt Before Feb. 4?
I mentioned the Rangers, so let’s start with them. No, they will not be trading Fox, Shesterkin, or J.T. Miller, but Artemi Panarin is a pending UFA. He’s quietly just above a point per game this season, and if it looks clear that the Rangers and Panarin can’t agree to an extension, he’ll easily be the most valuable player available for a trade ahead of the March 7 deadline.
In Nashville, Steven Stamkos, Jonathan Marchessault, and Ryan O’Reilly have been the subject of trade rumors for most of this season. Even though they’ve gotten back in the playoff race, general manager Barry Trotz is reportedly still open to moving them to help the team get younger. Plenty of teams would covet O’Reilly, who’s not showing any signs of slowing down at 34. Stamkos has also come alive after a poor start, so there would likely be interest in him, too.
Rasmus Andersson also seems like an obvious trade candidate. Whether that comes before Feb. 4 remains to be seen, but odds are the Flames will trade him since he’s a pending UFA. He’s a top-four, right-handed defenseman, and teams always covet right-handed defensemen, whether it’s at the deadline or during the offseason.
Those are some of the bigger names that could potentially be available. However, historically speaking, the top players available ahead of a trade deadline tend to get dealt closer to deadline day itself. That doesn’t mean there can’t be trades before Feb. 4, though.
Andrew Mangiapane has been a healthy scratch on occasion in Edmonton, and the Oilers are reportedly OK with moving him if a deal they like comes along. He’s struggled this season, but it’s partly luck-based. He has one of the lowest on-ice shooting percentages in the NHL, so he could be a good change-of-scenery candidate.
Another player who’s been in trade rumors is Kiefer Sherwood. The Canucks are not going to make the playoffs, and though they’ve exchanged numbers with Sherwood’s camp, trading him instead of extending him is probably best for the club’s long-term future. He is one of the most physical players in the NHL, but he also has some scoring upside. Given where the Canucks are in the standings, he could get dealt before Feb. 4 if the right deal comes along.
An Unofficial NHL Trade Deadline
There’s also the buyer factor in this year’s trade market. Some buyers may not want to wait until early March for the trade deadline because they want to create separation from the pack sooner rather than later. That obviously depends on sellers deciding “OK, it’s time to punt on this season.” But some teams may enter sell mode in the week leading up to the Olympic roster freeze.
If so, there could be a flurry of trade activity before trades go on hold for the Olympic break. Teams may want to get some of their business done ahead of the Olympics, which could make Feb. 4 an early, unofficial trade deadline of sorts.
