American Thanksgiving is a key benchmark in the NHL season. About a quarter of games have already taken place, and playoff positioning matters. Around 77.5 percent of teams in a playoff spot at American Thanksgiving qualify for the postseason.
That doesn’t mean the season is over if your team is out of it, but there may be work to do since three-point games make it tough to make up ground later in the season. Which teams out of playoff spots yesterday are in the most trouble coming out of the holiday? And who might be in good shape to make a run?
Buffalo Sabres
The Sabres were this close to being in a playoff spot on Thanksgiving. Had they beaten the Minnesota Wild and the Boston Bruins lost on Nov. 27, the Sabres would be third in the Atlantic Division. Being one point out of a playoff spot on Thanksgiving is far from a death knell, so do the Sabres have a chance?
Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen has given the Sabres solid goaltending, which is always a plus. It doesn’t look like his 2023-24 was a fluke, but the Sabres have struggled to generate offense at five-on-five. They’re averaging just 2.38 expected goals per 60 minutes, ranked 21st in the NHL. That’s a bit surprising for a Lindy Ruff-coached team, so we’ll see if that improves as the season progresses.
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If the Sabres can find more offense, they have a chance to end their playoff drought. The Bruins, like the Sabres, can’t generate offense, and their offensive issues look more problematic than the Sabres’. They have no center depth, as Elias Lindholm, Pavel Zacha and Charlie Coyle are all struggling.
And it’s not like the Tampa Bay Lightning have been a wagon. The Sabres may be out of a playoff spot on Thanksgiving, but it’s only by one point. They have as good an opportunity to be among the 23 percent of teams to qualify for the postseason after being out of the top eight on Thanksgiving since the Atlantic Division does not look particularly good.
Nashville Predators
The Predators had one of the most talked about offseasons of any NHL team, but it’s blown up in their faces to begin 2024-25. They entered Thanksgiving with a 7-12-4 record and in last place in the Central Division. Even by points percentage, they’re second to last in the Western Conference.
I don’t want to say the Predators’ season is over yet, but it’s looking bleak. Steven Stamkos and Jonathan Marchessault — their two marquee free-agent signings — are barely averaging half a point per game, and Brady Skjei has struggled mightily on the back end.
There’s not much to suggest the Predators will turn it around, too. They have an expected goals share (xG%) of 47.86 percent at five-on-five, ranked 23rd in the NHL. The team isn’t playing well, and they have the second-oldest roster in the league. Their playoff odds are already down to 15.2 percent on MoneyPuck, so it might be time to start looking at the 2025 draft if you’re a Predators fan.
New York Islanders
The Islanders had a good run to start this decade, but it looks like their playoff window may be closing. Their underlying numbers look fine; they have an xG% of 51.4 percent. Still, there are a couple of concerns with this team.
One) The Islanders cannot score. Part of that is injury-related since Mathew Barzal and Anthony Duclair have already missed significant time. But this is an offensively-starved team outside of Bo Horvat, Kyle Palmieri and Brock Nelson.
Two) I don’t think I can recall a team as bad as the Islanders are in the third period. They’ve given up a league-high 36 goals in the third period and have a goal differential of minus-16 in the final frame. It’s costing them games, something they struggled with dating back to last season. At 8-10-5, the clock might be ticking to get themselves back in the picture in the Metropolitan Division.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Let’s stick with the Metropolitan Division for another minute. By no means did I think the Penguins were a lock to be a playoff team, but I did think they’d be in contention. After all, they were a .537 team in points percentage last season and only missed the postseason by three points.
However, the Penguins have taken a big step back. They’re one of the worst defensive teams in the NHL, allowing 2.91 expected goals per 60 minutes at five-on-five. Only the Anaheim Ducks and Montreal Canadiens are giving up more quality chances than the Penguins, and they will be lottery teams in the 2025 draft.
Making matters worse for the Penguins is their goaltending isn’t holding up. It’s difficult for most goaltenders to stop pucks when the team in front is giving up as many chances as the Penguins unless you have Connor Hellebuyck or Igor Shesterkin, and Tristan Jarry is very much not that. It’s hard to imagine the Penguins getting it together, so it’s probably time to look at 2025 draft prospects in Pittsburgh.
Ottawa Senators
I hate to do this to you Senators fans, but here we are again. The Senators sit at 10-11-1 for 21 points, placing them just outside the playoffs in the East. It’s an all too familiar place for the Senators. However, I’m here to offer you some hope, too.
The Senators may not be in a playoff spot right now, but this team looks improved from a season ago. They have a 51.1 xG% and are allowing 2.24 expected goals per 60 minutes at five-on-five. They look like a solid defensive team, but they aren’t getting saves from Linus Ullmark.
If Ullmark turns it around, which I suspect he will, given his track record, the Senators can make a playoff push. Will he continue to post an .886 save percentage for the rest of this season? I would bet that improves, especially since the Senators are playing well defensively. If it does, don’t be surprised if they make a run.
Edmonton Oilers
The bad news for the Oilers? They’re out of a playoff spot for the second consecutive year at American Thanksgiving. The good news? The situation is far less dire than it was a year ago. They’re 11-9-2 and just one point behind the Vancouver Canucks for eighth in the Western Conference.
While this Oilers team has some concerns (goaltending & special teams), there’s not enough for me to think they won’t make the playoffs. Only the Los Angeles Kings and Carolina Hurricanes have a better five-on-five xG% than the Oilers. That’s usually a good predictor of future success, and they have arguably the two best players in the world. They’ll most likely be fine by season’s end.
Detroit Red Wings
It’s been a long and painful rebuild in Detroit. The Red Wings came close to qualifying for the playoffs in 2023-24, but they look further away this season. Their biggest concern is they’ve been the worst offensive team in the NHL at five-on-five.
The Red Wings are averaging just 2.07 expected goals per 60 minutes at five-on-five, ranked 32nd. Not even the Chicago Blackhawks have been worse, and they’ll be in the lottery for Porter Martone, Matthew Schaefer, etc. in the 2025 draft.
The only thing propping up the Red Wings is their goaltending. Cam Talbot has a .923 save percentage, while Alex Lyon has a .911 SV%. That will keep them in the race, as will the Atlantic Division not being particularly great, but this team does not look playoff-caliber offensively. You need to score goals to make the postseason, and they can’t do it consistently enough.
More Parity Than Usual Could Make Things Interesting
Some teams made it to American Thanksgiving in a playoff spot by the skin of their teeth. The Bruins, Canucks, Lightning, and Colorado Avalanche are in playoff spots by one to two points. There seems to be quite a bit of parity in the NHL this season, so I expect these playoff races to remain tight. And perhaps that means more teams than usual will work their way back into the playoffs after being out of it at Thanksgiving.
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