It’s early in the 2024-25 NHL season. Very early. But even then, there are a few teams off to concerning starts. The Nashville Predators spent a bajillion dollars in free agency and are 0-5-0. Meanwhile, the Colorado Avalanche are 2-4-0, though they have won two games in a row.
There were high expectations in Buffalo, but the Sabres have gotten off to a slow start, and the same is true for the Detroit Red Wings. Nobody should full-blown panic after five or six games, but it’s fair to have some concerns.
The question is, how concerned should you be?
Colorado Avalanche
It’s not like the Avalanche have a perfect team. While they still have plenty of high-end talent, they have a top-heavy roster and some issues in net. In fact, their goaltending looks like their most significant concern to begin the season, and it’s not particularly close.
Alexandar Georgiev has given up 9.9 goals above expected through five games. For context’s sake, Arvid Soderblom gave up 18.2 goals above expected last season, the worst mark in the NHL. Georgiev is on pace to surpass that comfortably, but the positive spin here is that you have to think he’ll level off at some point.
Related: NHL 2024-25 Power Rankings: Week 2
Georgiev may not be the best goalie in the world, but he’s not an .811 save percentage bad goaltender. That number is almost guaranteed to tick up at some point, as his goals saved above expected number. Otherwise, the Avalanche’s five-on-five numbers look excellent through six games; their 57.34 expected goals share (xG%) ranks third in the NHL to the Carolina Hurricanes and Edmonton Oilers. They’ll get it together, especially if Justus Annunen or Kaapo Kähkönen can provide a spark as a 1B to Georgiev.
Concern level: 2.5/10
Buffalo Sabres
There’s pressure in Buffalo to at least compete for a playoff spot this season. Lindy Ruff is back for his second stint as the Sabres’ head coach, but so far, the Sabres don’t like a team ready to compete for a playoff spot in the Atlantic, where the same contenders year in and year out still look like contenders.
The Sabres’ five-on-five numbers aren’t awful, nor are they great. Their 49.2 xG% ranks 17th in the NHL, and for the most part, they look like a Lindy Ruff-coached team. They’re generating quality offense at a decent clip (2.57 xGs/60) but are giving most of it back (2.63 xGs against per 60). Of course, it’s still small-sample-size season, but those raise the concern levels for what this team could be moving forward.
It also doesn’t help the Sabres aren’t getting saves. Devon Levi has allowed 3.3 goals above expected, a bottom-10 number league-wide. His development hasn’t gone as hoped so far, but he’s still a young goalie. I wouldn’t be concerned about him yet.
Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen has been fine, giving up 0.9 goals above expected. He’s generally saving what’s expected of him, but with how the Sabres are playing defensively to start the season, he’ll need to be better than average if Levi doesn’t turn it around. My biggest concerns with the Sabres are on defense and in net. And they might be long-term issues to deal with, too.
Concern level: 6/10
Nashville Predators
The Predators had perhaps the splashiest offseason of any team in the NHL, but it also wasn’t the offseason that many thought it was. That’s at least proving to be the case to begin 2024-25, as the Predators are 0-5-0 and have a goal differential of minus-13.
Unlike the Avalanche, the Predators’ five-on-five numbers suggest they might have some problems. Their 46.4 xG% ranks 24th in the NHL, and they’re having a tough time generating quality looks at five-on-five, averaging just 2.18 expected goals per 60 minutes. Their top free-agent acquisitions this summer — Steven Stamkos and Jonathan Marchessault — have just two goals combined.
Stamkos, in particular, has struggled, with just one goal and no assists in five games. His five-on-five production had been declining for a couple of years in Tampa — there’s a reason Lightning general manager Julien Brisebois opted to replace him with Jake Guentzel. So, his poor start may not be a mirage.
It also doesn’t help that the Predators got older and slower this offseason. Stamkos and Marchessault are 34 and showing signs of slowing down, especially Stamkos. The Predators roster has an average age of 28.96, the third oldest in the NHL. Only the Oilers and Pittsburgh Penguins have older rosters.
There are legitimate reasons to be concerned in Nashville because of how old their roster is but also because if they end up starting 0-7-0, 1-7-1, or whatever, their season could be over before it even really begins.
Concern level: 8/10
Edmonton Oilers
So we’re doing this again, huh? The Oilers got off to an inauspicious 2-9-1 start in 2023-24 before rallying for 50 wins and coming one victory shy of claiming the Stanley Cup. They’re 2-4-0 to begin this season, but I’m not concerned that this will spiral out of control as it did in 2023-24.
The Oilers’ 58.3 xG% is second to the Hurricanes, and they’re defending quite well, allowing 2.18 xGs per 60 minutes. They’re also generating plenty of offense, averaging 3.82 xGs per 60 minutes. I’m not sure how sustainable that latter number is, but there are the makings of another excellent team.
Like the Avalanche, the Oilers’ biggest concern is in net. Stuart Skinner has given up five goals above expected, the second most to Georgiev. If that sorts itself out, the Oilers should be fine. Skinner doesn’t need to be spectacular for the Oilers to get to where they need to be during the regular season. As long as he’s average, which he’s shown he can be during the regular season, the Oilers will win plenty of games.
Concern level: 2.5/10
Detroit Red Wings
The Detroit Red Wings are 2-3-0, but there are already some red flags in their game. Their 43.96 xG% ranks 29th in the NHL, and they’re bleeding quality chances, allowing 3.00 expected goals per 60 minutes. The concern is that those underlying numbers look very similar to last season.
I know the Red Wings came a point away from qualifying for the playoffs, but they rode some unsustainable percentages to get there, specifically with their shooting percentage. Shooting percentages are increasing across the league, so higher shooting percentages are becoming more sustainable. Still, you need to have the right process, and the Red Wings’ process already looks problematic.
The Red Wings have some decent top-six talent with Lucas Raymond, Dylan Larkin, Patrick Kane and Alex DeBrincat, but I see an incredibly flawed roster, especially on defense and in net. Head coach Derek Lalonde may fall on the sword if things go south, but Steve Yzerman’s seat should be getting warm if it isn’t already. Things could get worse quickly based on how the Red Wings’ five-on-five numbers already look.
Concern level: 8/10
There isn’t much reason to be concerned for the Avalanche and Oilers, but it’s a different story for the Predators, Sabres, and Red Wings. The Predators, in particular, might be in trouble if they don’t string some wins together this week. It could be getting late early in some NHL markets like Nashville, Buffalo, and perhaps Detroit if things continue to go south.
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Advanced stats from Natural Stat Trick, MoneyPuck
