The playoff picture has become a bit clearer for the Edmonton Oilers after Conor Garland scored twice to lead the Vancouver Canucks to a 4-3 victory over the Vegas Golden Knights at Rogers Arena on Monday (April 8).
While Edmonton’s odds of finishing atop the Pacific Division standings just got longer, the Oilers’ chances of securing home ice advantage in the opening round of the 2024 Stanley Cup Playoffs are now close to a lock.
Following Monday’s result, Vancouver (48-22-8) sits first in the Pacific with 104 points, followed by the Oilers (47-24-5) with 99 points, the Los Angeles Kings (41-25-11) with 93 points, and Vegas (42-27-8) with 92 points. Now that just 10 days remain in the 2023-24 NHL regular season, here is a look at where things stand.
Oilers Can Still Overtake Canucks
Even though they have to make up five points on Vancouver, the Oilers actually control their destiny for finishing first in the division.
Edmonton has six games left, while Vancouver will play only four more times. One of those remaining games will see the Oilers and Canucks play each other on Saturday (April 13) at Rogers Place.
Related: Oilers Reignite Division Title Hopes With Victory Over Flames
If Edmonton goes 6-0-0 and defeats the Canucks in regulation, the Oilers will finish with 111 points, while Vancouver could not finish with more than 110 even if it won its other three remaining games.
Should the Oilers and Canucks finish with the same number of points, the first tiebreaker would be regulation wins (RW). Vancouver has 42 RW, five more than the Oilers, meaning the Canucks clinch the tiebreaker with any combination of Vancouver RWs and Edmonton losses totalling two.
The next tiebreaker is wins excluding shootouts (ROW), in which Vancouver currently holds a 48-45 edge. The third tiebreaker is wins, which the Canucks presently lead 48-47. Finally, should a fourth tiebreaker be needed, Vancouver would win by virtue of its superior head-to-head record against the Oilers this season (in the team’s three prior meetings this season, the Canucks have gained six points compared to zero for Edmonton).
Oilers Close to Clinching Second
The top two teams in the Pacific receive home advantage in their Western Conference first round playoff series, and the Oilers can clinch no worse than second place in the division as soon as Thursday (April 11). Vancouver clinched a top-two spot in the Pacific with its win on Monday.
For that to happen, Edmonton must beat Vegas, either in regulation or in overtime/shootout, when the teams face off tomorrow (April 10) at Rogers Place, and Los Angeles must lose its next two games in regulation or overtime/shootout. The Kings visit the Anaheim Ducks tonight (April 9) and host the Calgary Flames on Thursday.
Vegas and Los Angeles both have five games left to play, but even if each team closes out its schedule going 5-0-0, the Oilers only need to pick up five points in their final six games to secure second place.
Oilers Have Tougher Schedule
Comparing the calendars for the Pacific Division’s four playoff contenders, no one has an easier finish to the season than Los Angeles. According to Tankathon, the Kings have a remaining strength of schedule (SOS) of just .411, with all five of their games coming against non-playoff teams. Vegas, meanwhile, has a .505 SOS with two of its five games against teams bound for the postseason.
Edmonton has a more difficult schedule, with a .522 SOS, and three games left to play against teams currently in a playoff position. The bright side is that things are even tougher for the Canucks: they has a .560 SOS, with half of their remaining games against playoff teams.
Finishing First is Important for Oilers
The team with the most points in the Pacific is guaranteed home ice for at least the first two rounds of the playoffs, and while there has been some discourse suggesting that it really doesn’t matter whether the Oilers finish first in the division, such sentiments disregard how dominant captain Connor McDavid and his teammates have been at Rogers Place this season.
With a point percentage in home games of .743, Edmonton ranks second in the entire NHL this season. Since Kris Knoblauch replaced Jay Woodcroft as Oilers head coach on Nov. 12, they have an incredible 25-4-2 record at Rogers Place.
On the other hand, the team that places atop the Pacific standings might actually find itself opening the postseason against an opponent with more points: if the playoffs started today, the No. 1 seed in the Pacific would face the best of the two Western Conference wild card teams, the Nashville Predators, who have 94 points; meanwhile, second place in the Pacific would play the division’s third-place team, Los Angeles, which has 93 points.
With much of great importance still to be decided, it could almost be said that the playoffs have already started in the Pacific Division. Then again, considering they were 10 points out of a playoff spot on US Thanksgiving, the Oilers have pretty much been playing postseason hockey for a few months now, and that level of performance will need to continue against Vegas on Wednesday.
