It has been a work in progress to find the best line combinations at forward since head coach Kris Knoblauch arrived. Past problems have either included unproductive wingers for Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl while having a little better depth, or sacrificing depth and giving the Edmonton Oilers’ two stars as much help as they can get on their wings.
Through 18 games as the head coach, Knoblauch has found a combination that has been very impactful and successful at five-on-five for both of the top lines without damning the bottom-six. This top-six doesn’t include Evander Kane. The first step was realizing just how dominant the line of McDavid, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, and Zach Hyman was. As you can see in the graphic below, this line is leaps and bounds ahead of the rest when it comes to expected goal percentage.
Before finding the second-line combination of Draisaitl, Warren Foegele, and Ryan McLeod, Knoblauch felt the need to split up that top line to give Draisaitl some help. His line looked very ineffective up until then with Kane and a combination of right wingers on the line (from “Lowetide: Did the Oilers solve Leon Draisaitl’s winger issues in New Jersey?”, The Athletic, Dec. 22, 2023). The last time we saw the line of McDavid, Nugent-Hopkins, and Hyman split up was in the New York Islanders game. Lesson learned. The Oilers lost that game on Dec. 19 by a score of 3-1 and the offence wasn’t great. What happened in the following two games before the Christmas break? The Oilers defeated the New Jersey Devils and the New York Rangers with a combined 10 goals scored, all coming at five-on-five.
What has become abundantly clear is that the Oilers’ top-six can function very well without Kane, begging the question, do the Oilers even need him on the roster or are they better off moving him and opening up space?
Kane Negatively Impacting the Oilers’ Top-6
Kane started the season cold and struggled to produce. When McDavid got injured for a few games, that is when we finally saw Kane pick up his play. That strong play that helped drive the Oilers has since gone away and he has only negatively impacted the top-six. When looking at McDavid’s analytics with and without Kane as well as Draisaitl’s analytics with and without Kane at five-on-five this season, it is very clear who the problem on the top two lines has been. Per Natural Stattrick:
| McDavid with Kane | McDavid without Kane | |
| Corsi for percent (CF%) | 62.37 | 60.50 |
| Fenwick for percent (FF%) | 57.58 | 61.12 |
| Shots for percent (SF%) | 47.92 | 60.84 |
| Goals for percent (GF%) | 37.50 | 56.10 |
| Expected goals for percent (xGF%) | 55.25 | 63.37 |
| Scoring chances for percent (SCF%) | 57.69 | 61.32 |
| High danger chances for percent (HDCF%) | 60.00 | 63.03 |
| High danger goals for percent (HDGF%) | 42.86 | 66.67 |
McDavid and Kane have played nearly 100 minutes together at five-on-five compared to the 200 minutes Draisaitl has played with Kane at five-on-five. Even though there is more supporting evidence for keeping Kane away from Draisaitl, 100 minutes is a good amount of time to argue why Kane shouldn’t be on a line with McDavid either.
Since the first line has been established for longer, Draisaitl has been stuck with Kane and that line has clearly been struggling. In seven of the eight analytical categories, Draisaitl is better off with other linemates.
| Draisaitl with Kane | Draisaitl without Kane | |
| CF% | 47.10 | 57.89 |
| FF% | 45.72 | 57.84 |
| SF% | 43.95 | 55.90 |
| GF% | 40.00 | 50.00 |
| xGF% | 47.02 | 63.62 |
| SCF% | 45.59 | 58.12 |
| HDCF% | 50.00 | 58.54 |
| HDGF% | 33.33 | 33.33 |
Analytics are here for a reason, and they show exactly what is working for the Oilers through 31 games this season. This team isn’t in any place to be experimenting and continuing to try to get Kane top-six minutes as the Oilers are outside of the playoffs looking in at the Christmas break.
Kane was believed to be one part of the five-headed monster for the Oilers at forward. He’s not ineffective at scoring goals by any means as he has 13 goals and 23 points in 31 games. But more is expected of him based on the opportunities he’s continuously had alongside two of the best players in the world and his past play on the Oilers. He’s been too streaky. His goal against the Rangers on Dec. 22 was his first at even strength in 12 games (from “Player grades: Lightning strikes twice as Edmonton Oilers again pound in four third-period goals, beating New York Rangers”, Edmonton Journal, Dec. 22, 2023).
Related: Philip Broberg Likely Moved in an Oilers Trade of Jack Campbell
At this time, Kane is a third liner making $5.125 million average annual value (AAV) for two more years after this one. That is too expensive for my liking and could be used to help the team get a save. Whether he is moved this season, which would be somewhat surprising, or in the offseason, I don’t see him finishing his contract in Edmonton. The numbers don’t lie and the eye test doesn’t either. Keep an eye out for Kane entering the rumour mill soon because of this.
