Tommy “Thomas” Novak is having an exceptional season for the Nashville Predators. He is proving to be a prominent scoring option for a team that desperately lacks offensive production. Many NHL fans may be unaware of him, as the St. Paul native only has 74 games under his belt throughout two seasons. Despite this, his production throughout the back half of the season helped mitigate the mass amounts of injuries plaguing the Preds.
Novak Before The Predators
Before his first full season with the Predators, Novak spent seven years developing before his NHL debut. Drafted in the third round of the illustrious 2015 NHL Draft, which continues to improve by the season, he grasped every opportunity to further his odds of making the show. Following four years at the Univerisity of Minnesota, the forward took his talents to the Predators’ American Hockey League (AHL) affiliate, the Milwaukee Admirals. During his first season in the AHL, he had 11 goals and 31 points, for 42 points in 60 games. In his final season, he put up 34 points in 42 games. While solid for a third-round pick, these totals gave no signs of the breakout season he would have in the 2022-23 NHL season.
Novak’s first stint with the Predators in the 2021-22 season did not fare so well. One goal, six assists, for seven points in 27 games did not fill head coach John Hynes with confidence in the forward. Additionally, the 27 games voided his Calder Trophy eligibility for this season. While not too crucial for Novak, this fact is part of why many NHL fans are unaware of his production, as he cannot be in the Calder race for his fantastic season. Once given the opportunity, he proved why he would be a significant factor in the Predators’ final games in the season and looks to be a force in the future.
Novak’s Stats This Year
In 47 games for the Predators this season, Novak has 17 goals and 24 assists for 41 points in 47 games; this number is good for fourth on the team. This scoring pace places him first in points-per-game on the Preds with 0.87. He would be a contender for the Calder Trophy at the NHL Awards if eligible. His offensive production this season came out of nowhere to many fans around the NHL, as no scouts touted him to be this great in his first full season.
Aside from Novak’s astounding numbers that meet the eye test, he also shows promising signs elsewhere. He has a 56% Corsi for, and a 54.5% on-ice expected goals, according to MoneyPuck.com, and an excellent penalty differential, taking only eight penalty minutes to 22 drawn. The only downside to his game is on the defensive side. He ranks in the zero percentile for defensive wins-above-replacement (WAR), one of the worst in the NHL (from JFresh’s subscription-based Patreon). Despite this, the defensive-minded Predators can absorb his inadequate defensive play, making it a perfect match for him to excel as he emerges as a second-line center.
Novak Going Forward
Novak will be crucial for the Predators as they attempt to establish their new identity. The future is looking bright, along with the likes of Cody Glass, Luke Evangelista, Joakim Kemell, and whichever prospect they choose in the first round of the 2023 NHL Entry Draft.
Given the small sample size, projecting Novak as a first-line center is too generous. However, he can easily fill a much-needed second-line role on the Preds, providing scoring and flashing his excellent penalty-drawing skills. Even if regression hits, the floor should be a third-line center with scoring upside. His ceiling is high on the Predators, as they have proven to be one of the worst offensive teams in the NHL this season, meaning more opportunity for Novak to flash his offensive prowess.
Related: Predators’ Cody Glass Finally Getting NHL Opportunity
The development staff of the Predators should take full credit for the revelation that is Novak, as their patience has paid off. After seven years, hundreds of games spanning three leagues and four teams, he is now an NHL player living his childhood dream.
