Ryan Lindgren is back with the New York Rangers – but the deal might not be as long as some fans were hoping for. The new contract will be for one year at $4.5 million, which makes the 2016 second-round pick eligible for unrestricted free agency after the 2024-25 season.
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There are two things to consider when looking at the deal. For one, the average annual value (AAV) might seem high. Vincent Mercogliano of USA Today Network previously reported that the anticipation was that the number would land around the qualifying offer of $3.6 million and no higher than $4 million (from ‘What Braden Schneider’s new contract means for Rangers’ D corps, salary cap,’ The Journal News, July 15, 2024).
But it seemed that the Rangers never wanted to commit long-term dollars. Now, maybe general manager and president Chris Drury should have fought a little harder for another year on the contract – this way he could have been dealt by the 2025 Trade Deadline or next offseason for higher compensation.
Why It Makes Sense for Drury
But still, the Rangers aren’t necessarily losers despite the higher-than-expected AAV and the risk of losing him for nothing in free agency next season.
The cap hit is still very manageable for a top-pairing defenseman. Sure, Norris Trophy-caliber defenseman Adam Fox has been the play driver – but Lindgren has done his part through the majority of his Blueshirts tenure of being that steady partner, who lets Fox play to his strengths.
While admiring Lindgren’s Rangers career, that doesn’t mean we should ignore his concerning 2023-24 campaign. Last season, he played 76 games and was the team’s worst defenseman in terms of expected goals (xGF), according to Natural Stat Trick. And the postseason wasn’t great either. Only Barclay Goodrow finished with a lower xGF than the defenseman, amongst Rangers that played at least four games in the postseason. Additionally, Lindgren was on the ice for the most high-danger opportunities allowed in the playoffs. His struggles got exposed in the Florida Panthers series in Round 3 especially when going up against a heavy forecheck. Injuries were also an issue for the 26-year-old, who suffered a broken rib in Game 6 of the Round 2 series against the Carolina Hurricanes, and a lower-body injury in the regular season, which forced him to miss some time.
Regardless, it wasn’t a great season for Lindgren anyway you look at it. That doesn’t mean he can’t rebound into the player he’s been for most of his Blueshirts tenure – but the one-year contract tells you the Rangers are at least concerned. If he continues last season’s trend, Drury will either deal him at the deadline or let him walk in free agency. Either way, the Rangers aren’t stuck with long-term obligations on the books.
Rangers Must Commit to Plan
Of course, the other scenario is that Lindgren plays well, and he’s able to land a bigger contract in free agency. If that’s the case, Drury must have a plan for it. A decision has to have been made by now on how much term he would be willing to commit to the pending unrestricted free agent. Drury cannot overpay. He also needs to consider the hard-noised style, which relies on shot blocking and taking hits to make plays, Lindgren plays and how that will impact his body going forward.
Also, the team must decide on what his role will be in 2024-25. We’ve made the argument that Lindgren should be among the players that should see reduced minutes this season. Perhaps take away some responsibility and see how he performs in either a third or second pairing role, instead of getting the toughest matchups with Fox. It’s worth giving K’Andre Miller a look on the top pair.
Perhaps Drury has plans to move Lindgren at the trade deadline and shake up his defensive core. He could trade him away for compensation to gear up for a bigger move. Somebody like Michael Matheson, who has two years left on his contract at about $4.9 million per season, would look great next to Fox should the Montreal Canadiens make him available. The 30-year-old had a career year last season with the Habs, exploding for 62 points in 82 games.
Of course, not every defenseman needs to hit Bobby Orr’s level of production – but Lindgren isn’t known for his scoring. In fact, in his NHL career, he has never exceeded more than 18 points in a single season. But the bigger issue is management with the puck. Lindgren needs to get back to making seamless plays while trusting his talented teammates to do the rest.
That said, it does seem like the Rangers are prepared for the marriage to end after this season or even earlier. Committing long-term was risky, and Drury was right to avoid it. While Lindgren plays through a lot of pain and injuries, the investment may not have made enough sense for three or four years. Drury will need to explore all opportunities at the trade deadline.
