Revisiting the Predators & Devils P.K. Subban Trade

When P.K. Subban was traded to the Nashville Predators for long-time defenseman and captain Shea Weber on July 1, 2016, his offensive skills, especially on the power play, were supposed to put Nashville over the top.

The season after they acquired Subban, the Predators made it to the 2017 Stanley Cup Final. Sure, they were a wild-card team entering the postseason, but Subban, who put up 40 points in 66 regular-season games, had 12 points through 22 playoff games. In 2017-18, Subban had 59 points in 82 games, helping the Predators win the Presidents’ Trophy. He was a finalist for the Norris Trophy, finishing third in voting.

Unfortunately, by 2018-19, the Predators were still a very good team, but they had flaws. Most notably, their power-play was atrocious, with a 12.9% success rate that ranked dead last in the league. Subban’s production dropped to 31 points in 63 games, and he had just 10 on the power play. In the playoffs, the Dallas Stars upset the Predators in the first round, and Nashville’s power play, which went 0-for-18 in the series, was a big reason why.

As a result, the Predators traded Subban to the New Jersey Devils on June 22, 2019, for defenseman Steven Santini, prospect Jeremy Davies, a 2019 second-round pick, and a 2020 second-round pick. Some people called it a weak return for Subban and a disappointing end to what could’ve been a partnership equal to his time with the Montreal Canadiens. However, there was a different motivation behind this deal.

Subban’s Trade Netted Matt Duchene

The Predators didn’t get much in return for Subban, but they did get valuable cap space. Subban was signed to an eight-year contract worth $9 million a season in 2014-15. The freed-up space allowed management to go big-game hunting, as they tried to find a center to flesh out their top six.

The Kyle Turris trade didn’t work out (he was eventually bought out), and Mikhael Granlund didn’t show results early on, while players like Nick Bonino, Calle Jarnkrok, and Colton Sissons were more bottom-six additions.

Matt Duchene was a pending unrestricted free agent and a perfect target. He had a tumultuous season in 2018-19. The Ottawa Senators traded a haul to get him in 2017 (including Turris going to Nashville), but finished 2nd last in the league in 2017-18.

As a result, they traded Duchene to the Columbus Blue Jackets at the 2019 Trade Deadline, and he proved critical in the playoffs, with 10 points in 10 games, including seven in the Blue Jackets’ upset of the Presidents’ Trophy-winning Tampa Bay Lightning in Round 1.

Throughout the madness of the 2018-19 season, Duchene still notched 31 goals and 39 assists through 73 games. That was appealing to the Predators, and the team signed him to a seven-year deal worth $8 million annually on July 1, 2019.

The deal was a swing-and-a-miss. Duchene was solid for Nashville, scoring 197 points in 249 games. However, he was thrust into a role that didn’t suit him, constantly asked to facilitate the offense as more of a complementary player. The marriage ended after four seasons, and Nashville bought him out in the 2023 offseason. The Duchene and Turris buyouts are still on the books this season.

P.K. Subban Fell Off In New Jersey

With the Devils, the hope was for Subban to bounce back on an emerging squad. They drafted Jack Hughes with the No. 1 pick in the 2019 NHL Draft, and with a forward core that included 2017-18 Hart Trophy winner Taylor Hall, sturdy veterans (Kyle Palmieri, Blake Coleman, Wayne Simmonds) and talented young contributors (Nico Hischier, Jesper Bratt, Pavel Zacha), they were looking to head back to the playoffs after missing them in 2018-19. A bounce-back from Subban would be a big part of that.

That’s not what happened. The Devils had one of the worst records in the 2019-20 season, becoming one of just seven teams to miss the round-robin playoffs. Hall was shipped off mid-season to the Arizona Coyotes, Jack Hughes wasn’t ready for the NHL, and forwards like Bratt and Zacha didn’t develop.

However, the biggest disappointment was Subban, whose offensive contributions dropped to 18 points in 68 games, including a 21-game pointless streak. The way the Devils deployed him was bizarre, too. Subban was known as an offensive defenseman, and it was unwise to put him on the penalty kill. But Devils head coach John Hynes and crew put him on PK (no pun intended) duties for an average of 1:38 minutes per game.

Hynes and general manager Ray Shero were fired midway through the 2019-20 season, but Subban never rediscovered his abilities. He had just 19 points in 44 games in 2020-21 and 22 points through 77 games in 2021-22. He announced his retirement in the 2022 offseason.

Subban proved critical to Jack Hughes’s development, and he won the King Clancy Memorial Trophy in 2022 for his impact off the ice. However, his on-ice impact was limited, and he was a shell of his former self in New Jersey.

The Actual Return for Nashville

Many people criticized the Predators’ weak return for Subban, and they’ve been proven right over time. Santini became a fringe NHLer, and Jeremy Davies became a mainstay in the American Hockey League. Both of them were off the roster by the 2022-23 NHL season.

The picks could’ve been interesting, but Nashville traded those picks away for worse prospects. The 2019 second-rounder could’ve netted them Bobby Brink, a nice middle-six winger, at No. 34, but they traded down to get a second and a third from the Philadelphia Flyers. The second became Egor Afanasyev, who’s played just 19 NHL games, and Alexander Campbell, who never made the NHL.

The 2020 second-rounder was used to draft Marat Khusnutdinov, a winger who broke out with the Boston Bruins, No. 37 overall. Sadly, Nashville never reaped the rewards. Instead, on draft day, they traded that pick, along with Nick Bonino and the No. 70 pick, to the Minnesota Wild for Luke Kunin and pick No. 101. Kunin was a pending restricted free agent at the time, and the Predators wanted to get out of the Nick Bonino contract.

Kunin was coming off a career-high 16-goal, 15-assist season with the Wild, but he never approached that production in Nashville. He had 41 points in 120 games before the Predators traded him to the San Jose Sharks in the 2022 offseason. Pick No. 101 was used to draft Adam Wilsby, and he’s still on the Predators. Wilsby had 16 points through 58 games last season, and he should make the NHL roster again this season. He will be a restricted free agent at the end of this season.

It’s Hard to Pick a Winner in the Subban Deal

The Predators come out of the Subban deal significantly worse. They didn’t keep those two second-round picks, which could’ve netted them two quality middle-six forwards (Brink, Khusnutdinov). Of the players they ended up with, only Wilsby looks like he could become a full-time NHLer. They also used Subban’s cap space to sign Matt Duchene, a buyout they’re still paying to this day.

But the Devils didn’t do much better. Subban wasn’t the same player in Jew Jersey, and they could have kept those second-rounders. However, due to Subban’s leadership and the developmental help he gave Hughes early on, the Devils could be considered the winners of the deal. But it’s hard to argue that New Jersey got what they wanted out of the deal.