Casey Mittelstadt is a perfect case study for why you shouldn’t give up on a prospect too early. When the Buffalo Sabres drafted him in 2017, the expectation was that he could become an effective top-two center. After a rocky first few seasons, he is finally producing consistently.
In 2022-23, Mittelstadt had 19 points through the first 35 games. He appeared destined for another season at roughly a 40-point pace over 82 games. But then, something happened. Initially stapled to the third line with Victor Olofsson and Tyson Jost, Mittelstadt was given an opportunity to play top-line minutes after Tage Thompson sustained an injury.
Playing with more talented offensive players like Alex Tuch and Jeff Skinner was perfect for Mittelstadt, who remained in the top six even after Thompson returned from injury. He produced 40 points in the final 47 games of the season, shattering his career highs in goals, assists, and points.
So far in 2023-24, he has picked up right where he left off last season. Nearing the end of the first quarter of this season, he is on pace for another career-high in points. The Sabres are outshooting, out-chancing, and outscoring opponents at 5v5 with Mittelstadt on the ice, which has never happened over an entire season.
Mittelstadt’s Strengths
During his first few seasons, Mittlestadt struggled to find consistent offense. He had the ability to skate the puck through neutral ice and into the offensive zone, but his playmaking and scoring ability didn’t transfer as smoothly to the NHL. After a few seasons, he finally adjusted to NHL speed and began to produce.
Mittlestadt has carved out an excellent role for himself as a playmaker. He ranks well above average in shot assists, chance assists, and high-danger assists. He has figured out how to use his passing and vision to set up quality scoring chances.
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After finding his offensive groove in an elevated role last season, Mittelstadt has increased his 5v5 production again in 2023-24. His points per 60 (P/60) were at 1.21 in 2021-22 and nearly doubled to 2.26 in 2022-23. This season, he has 2.81 P/60 through 18 games.
Mittelstadt is excelling at his usual playmaking style, but he is also creating rebounds at almost double the rate he did last season, leading to more scoring opportunities. His shooting percentage of 15.79% this season is well above average for him, which has also helped his production early on.
Defense has never been a strong suit for Mittelstadt, but recently, he has started using some of his tools to help the team defensively. Last season, he developed enough speed to retrieve a lot of pucks in his own zone, but he had among the most botched zone exits on the team, with 26% of his zone exits being failed ones. This season, he is not only retrieving pucks at a high rate but his failed exit percentage has been reduced to just 12.8%. He is getting to loose pucks and getting them out of danger successfully, much more than he did early in his career. Mittelstadt’s development into a well-rounded player has been unexpected but certainly welcomed by a Sabres team with many issues in their own zone.
Mittelstadt’s Weaknesses
The offense at even strength has been on a consistent upward trajectory over the past few seasons for Mittelstadt, but he needs to be more consistent on the powerplay. He has never been a huge point producer on the man advantage, but he did pick up 16 points last season. So far, in 2023-24, Mittelstadt has only one powerplay point. True to his 5v5 style of play, he plays more of a distributing role on the powerplay. The Sabres haven’t been moving the puck with enough urgency, and he has been no exception to this issue. Buffalo has struggled to score powerplay goals all season, and Mittlestadt will need to get quicker passes off if he wants to help the team turn it around.
Shooting isn’t Mittelstadt’s strongest asset, either. He ranks 13th on the Sabres in shots per 60, and his shooting percentage will likely regress to his typical range as the season progresses. Because of his strong playmaking ability, the Sabres don’t need Mittelstadt to be a big goal scorer. However, developing from a pass-first forward into a duel threat could be how he reaches another step in his development.
Mittelstadt’s Future Outlook
The future is bright for Mittelstadt. His development has been a slow burn, but he has continually added new weapons, and he’s starting to put it all together. He succeeded with his playmaking in the offensive zone, then added more speed and defensive zone hustle. Now, he’s starting to win more battles and get pucks out of his own end more efficiently. If he can develop a lethal shot or find more success on the powerplay, he might still have 70-80-point potential.
Mittelstadt’s contract is up at the end of this season, and he deserves a massive raise from his current annual cap hit of $2.5 million. About a year ago, with the log jam of young center prospects in the Sabres organization, it looked like Mittelstadt was a prime candidate to be traded before his contract expired. With his meteoric rise over the past year, it doesn’t make sense for the Sabres to deal him anymore. Buffalo’s patience has paid off, and it would be in their best interest to lock him in long-term.
