Much of Bytown’s hockey punditry thinks the Ottawa Senators should move on from restricted free agent (RFA) Erik Brannstrom this summer. The gist of their argument for parting ways with the young Swedish blue liner is that he never did and never will live up to the hype on which he rode into town in early 2019 as part of the infamous trade that sent Mark Stone to the Vegas Golden Knights.
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For them, his rights should be traded, and if that doesn’t happen, the Senators should under no circumstances give him a qualifying offer (QO) to keep him around. I say that would be a mistake. If he’s not dealt in a trade that makes sense, then the Senators’ president of hockey operations and general manager (GM), Steve Staios, needs to extend a QO to him.
Absent a trade for his rights, that needs to happen before 5 p.m. on June 30th. Otherwise, Brannstrom will leave Ottawa, and the Senators will gain only $2 million in cap space. They can do better.
Brannstrom’s Value to the Senators
Love him or hate him, Brannstrom is a key part of the Senators’ current blue line. This season, he had a career-best 20 points, making him the fifth-highest points-getter in Ottawa’s defencemen. That’s yawn-worthy, especially for a defender touted for his offense when he took residence on the Rideau Canal. Yet his critics must remember that he saw little time on the powerplay and was relegated all season to the third pairing.
This season, his plus/minus of plus-5 puts him alongside Jake Sanderson (plus-8) and Artem Zub (plus-5). While his average time on the ice per game (ATOI) at 16:35 was about what you’d expect to see of a blueliner playing on the third pairing, he managed to put up respectable numbers for blocked shots and hits. For a small player, he punches above his weight.
Brannstrom has also been effective on the penalty kill (PK) skating on the second PK unit. That’s important to a team that ranked 30th in the league this season with a PK percentage of just 74.1%. Were he used more on the PK next season, the Senators could take some pressure off Chabot, who, some say, could be better if he weren’t logging so many minutes.
He’s versatile and capable of playing both sides of the blue line at both ends of the rink. His breakouts are a massive asset to the Senators and arguably he‘s one of the few Senators defencemen who can clear the zone well. He’s so adaptable that he can even play on the wing when called upon, as he was this season. He’s also capable of skating among the top four to cover injuries, which may continue to plague the Senators next season if history is any guide.
I won’t dispute that the gushing praise former Senators general manager (GM) Pierre Dorion heaped upon him when he was acquired has never been justified by what fans have seen from him on the ice. Yet he has proven himself a steady journeyman blueliner who has done everything the Senators have asked of him these last two seasons. Moreover, given what he brings to the team, he skates for $2 million, and that’s a good value.
Am I saying the Senators couldn’t do better than Brannstrom? No, but for now, he is not a liability on the team’s back end and is not the most pressing problem Staios faces.
Senators Have Bigger Problems on Blue Line Than Brannstrom
The more troubling problem the Senators face on the blue line is Jakob Chychrun. Even though he scored 41 points and recorded the second-highest number of hits and blocked shots among Ottawa defenders this season, his defensive play was awful.
If he owned a bakery in Ottawa, it would be famous for its turnovers, judging by how many he made this season on the ice. His passes to nowhere in particular and missed assignments often left fans gobsmacked. All of it combined to equal minus-30 on the stats sheet. To put that into perspective, only seven NHL defencemen had a worse plus/minus this season. Four of those players skated for the San Jose Sharks – a team that would get beaten up by most minor league squads.
If all that’s not a good enough reason to focus on moving him before Brannstrom, then a season-end press conference should be. That’s when Chychrun couldn’t bring himself to express even mild interest in staying in Ottawa, explaining, “It’s a tough question. (explaining his long-term interest in staying in Ottawa). I mean, I don’t know, I haven’t thought about it. I honestly have not thought about that. I know I have one more year left. And, like I said, there haven’t even been talks about an extension or anything. So, I haven’t really gotten my head wrapped around that idea. So it’s tough for me to sit here and act like I have. I’ve got to kind of take it day by day and see if we have those talks and go from there.”
Senators May Need Brannstrom
Aside from Jake Sanderson and Artem Zub, nobody on the Ottawa blueline has a lock on a position next season. Given that he’s never lived up to the lofty expectations the Senators had for him, Chabot could be part of a compelling trade package, while Jacob Bernard-Docker has yet to prove himself a true NHLer.
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So, facing all that uncertainty, why would Staios prioritize moving Brannstrom? Moving Chychrun with his $4.6 million annual salary would open more cap space. Not only that, but he’s likely to fetch more on the open market than Brannstrom – perhaps even a top-notch goaltender like Linus Ullmark, as I’ve discussed in a previous article.
Staios needs to recognize that Brannstrom is now his fifth-best defenceman—certainly better than Travis Hamonic and Bernard-Docker. If he moves Chychrun, Brannstrom becomes his fourth-best and arguably one of just four NHL-caliber defenders remaining on his roster.
If that’s the case, he’ll need a solid third pairing, and I can’t think of a better one than Brannstrom teamed with up-and-comer Tyler Kleven. Brannstrom’s offensive skills and veteran experience, combined with Kleven’s size and mile-wide mean streak, could make a potent third defense pairing.
Brannstrom would indeed be expendable if a better defenceman came along – either through free agency or a trade. But why would Staios move him now before he lassos said defenceman? Staios should give Brannstrom the required qualifying offer of $2 million and give himself some time to deal with the more significant problems he faces in constructing a better roster. With a qualifying offer, Brannstrom becomes a more valuable trade chip if that’s the route Staios decides to go.
Staios Can’t Let Brannstrom Leave Ottawa for Nothing
Absent a deal for his rights that Staios likes, Brannstrom walks out the door as an unrestricted free agent in three weeks. Staios needs to find a way to get more than that for Brannstrom, and the only way to do it is to extend a qualifying offer to him. Time’s ticking away.
