In some respects, the New Jersey Devils have an embarrassment of riches on their blue line. A bonafide Norris Trophy contender in Dougie Hamilton, a proper top-pair counterbalance in Brenden Dillon, a stalwart defensive-defenseman in Jonas Siegenthaler, two top-four selections in Luke Hughes and Simon Nemec, a complete, two-way top-three defenseman in Brett Pesce, and great depth in newcomer Jonathan Kovacevic and rookie Seamus Casey. Despite all that talent, head coach Sheldon Keefe has the challenge of finding a way to get the best out of his deep defensive corps by finding the correct matches like a hockey sommelier.
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In four games, the Devils have gotten mixed results from their defense. Hamilton and Dillon have already set the course to become one of the elite pairs in the NHL; while Siegenthaler and Kovacevic have been a steady defense-first pair and the combination of Casey and Nemec has had difficulty in their zone. Concern about the pair structure may become moot as Pesce appears set to return within the next week, and Hughes has already begun skating with the team, though he is likely three to four weeks away from a return.
Finding (a Role for) Nemo
Second-year player Nemec has had a rollercoaster start to his career. Last season, as a 19-year-old, he was pressed into regular duty at nearly 20 minutes a night when Hamilton was lost for the season just 20 games in. He played so well at the start that he forced the Devils to keep him in the NHL. Like most rookies, he seemed to wear down physically and mentally as the season continued, eventually falling out of favor with interim head coach Travis Green upon the latter’s elevation. He finished the season tasked with working on his decision-making at both ends of the ice. His ability remains unquestioned. Rare is it to find a right-hand shot defenseman with his skills and calmness with the puck, let alone one that can’t legally drink in America.
Nemec’s role this season remains unclear. With the losses of Pesce and Hughes before the start of training camp, he spent most of the early part of the preseason working with Santeri Hatakka, and the pair looked to be set to hold down the fort until Hughes returned. Then Hatakka went down, needing shoulder surgery himself, and the Devils were down to three NHL-caliber defensemen to fill the spots, all right-handed. Casey had experience playing on the left side at the University of Michigan, so he was moved over to fill Hatakka’s spot alongside Nemec.
Casey’s strong preseason also made him the quarterback of PP2, a position most believed would go to Nemec. In the first four games, the pair has played with mixed results. With the pair on the ice, in 33 minutes, the Devils have only surrendered one goal but have only scored once. They have also played to an expected goals for a percentage (xGF%) of 27, well below the other two pairs. As the regular season has worn on, the duo has gotten less and less ice time, especially when the game is in the balance. While sheltering a young pair is to be expected, the Devils can’t be excited for the extra pressure the sheltering puts on the top four. In Saturday’s game in Washington, the pair played a combined 43 seconds in the final ten minutes of a one-goal game. While the team won the game, the formula is not sustainable.
Finding the Right Combination
The Devils’ reinforcements will be back sooner rather than later, leaving Keefe with some difficult decisions. The first decision will be: Once Pesce returns, who is the first player out of the lineup? Even with Pesce, the Devils are looking at an unbalanced lineup of four right-shot defensemen and two left-shot. Until his return, the Devils could make a simple switch of putting Nemec with Siegenthaler and Casey with Kovacevic.
The pair of Siegenthaler and Kovacevic have logged the most ice time of any of the Devils’ pairs. In just over 60 minutes together they have only surrendered one goal against. The Devils’ goaltenders have put up a .960 save percentage with them on the ice. This explains the low goals-against number but indicates their ability to box out around the crease and suppress high-danger opportunities. Despite all that, they are only playing to a 50 xGF%. If the goal is to find a way to spread out minutes better and give Nemec the best chance to continue to improve, breaking up this pair makes sense.
The Devils could flip Kovacevic and Nemec, which would free up Nemec to be more aggressive in the offensive zone and attack through the neutral zone, both his strengths. In the Washington game, his decision to pinch at the blue line cost the team a quick counterattack odd-man rush, which Jacob Markstrom cleaned up. If Nemec were playing with a more stalwart defender like Siegenthaler, he would not have to hesitate when pinching or taking offensive action because he would be confident he has a strong defender on his left. It is no knock on Casey to say he isn’t yet the caliber of defensive defenseman that Siegenthaler is, but a pair where Nemec has to be relied on as the primary defender is not a recipe for success at this point in his career.
If the goal is also to develop Casey, playing with Kovacevic is a better fit than Nemec. Casey is shouldering a problematic burden, as he is playing in his first week in the NHL and being asked to run a power play unit. Giving him a steady, defensive defenseman who can skate, move the puck, and use his physicality will allow Casey to play freer and have someone behind him to erase mistakes.
Trying these pairs early in the game makes sense. If they don’t settle well and allow Keefe to spread out minutes better with minimal risk, they can easily switch back to the pairings they have used in the first four games. Even if it’s just a situational deployment, the team can send a pair of Siegenthaler and Kovacevic over the boards for important defensive zone faceoffs or when trying to kill off games.
Coaches have difficulty balancing giving their team the best chance to win today while still doing what they can to develop future star players at the NHL level. Gone are the days of the American Hockey League (AHL), with juniors being the only developmental level. With injuries and expectations, more and more players are asked to develop while playing in the NHL. Making these adjustments allows the team to accomplish both goals without sacrificing wins.
