After this season, the Toronto Maple Leafs will have to make perhaps the most impactful decision on their future: should they re-sign superstar winger Mitch Marner, ex-captain John Tavares, both, or neither? With the Maple Leafs’ cap situation tumultuous at best, management must evaluate each player’s impact and come up with a list of pros and cons to ensure they make the correct decision. With that in mind, here’s a look at the Maple Leafs’ best course of action.
Evaluating Marner’s Impact on the Maple Leafs
Since he was drafted fourth overall in 2015, Marner has established himself as one of the league’s premier wingers. Beginning in 2018-19, he has scored 533 points in 436 games – a year-by-year full-season pace of 100 points. On top of that, his underlying stats have been consistently elite. Other than his rookie season, he has yet to record a season in which his expected goals share (xGF%) was below 52.5%. In fact, over the last five seasons, his xGF% has averaged out to nearly 57%.
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This season, Marner has been the Maple Leafs’ best player. He leads the team in points with 24, is fourth on the team in xGF% (56.81%), and is second in both scoring chance share (SCF%) and high-danger scoring chance share (HDCF%). His xGF% ranks 13th in the league among forwards who have played at least 250 minutes of 5v5 hockey, above Mikko Rantanen, Sam Reinhart, and David Pastrnak.
He has excelled on both special teams as well, with 10 points on the man advantage and a shorthanded goal. According to IneffectiveMath, the Maple Leafs are also producing 10% more offence than the league average on the power play when Marner is on the ice and allowing 1% less offence against than the league average on the penalty kill.
The only problem with choosing Marner over Tavares is the cost. At 27 years old, he should elite production for at least the next six seasons or so. He has outproduced William Nylander by a relatively significant margin, and Nylander was given an eight-year, $11.5 million AAV contract last season. It’s not unreasonable to assume that Marner’s next contract will push $12 million AAV and be at max length. The caveat is that the NHL salary cap will increase significantly, so it shouldn’t be as much of a hit as it would be now.
John Tavares is Cheaper, but Less Impactful
Meanwhile, Tavares is in the final year of his seven-year, $11 million AAV deal. He has been productive for the Maple Leafs, scoring about a point per game every season while providing the team with strong leadership. He has also sported an xGF% of between 52% and 56% in every season since he was signed in 2018-19, including 54.97%, ranked seventh on the team this season. He has been a reliable force on the power play but does not play on the penalty kill.
The problem with Tavares is his price tag. At 34, there has already been a noticeable decline in his foot speed throughout his contract. Yes, his impact is still solid, but aging curves generally show that, except for an extreme outlier, there is a steep dropoff in quality of play at this point in a player’s career. Considering veteran Steven Stamkos was just handed a contract worth $8 million annually — and that the two have comparable point production — it’s reasonable to assume Tavares’ next contract will be about that value.
Maple Leafs Should Prioritize Marner
If I were general manager Brad Treliving, I would prioritize extending Marner’s tenure in Toronto since it will be impossible to re-sign both players. The criticism he’s received from the Maple Leafs fanbase has largely been reactionary and stems more from frustration with management signing four players for over $10 million than Marner not being worth the eight-figure salary.
He has proven himself as one of the league’s best wingers, and very few players can claim they are better at that position. Tavares, meanwhile, is aging — and showing it — all while taking up more money than he’s worth. The pay cut he’ll have to take to remain in Toronto is likely too significant for him to stay, so it will be better for the Maple Leafs to let him walk to another team that will pay him the $8 million-plus he’ll be asking for.
