Regardless of what happens on Saturday, the Edmonton Oilers should be given real credit for getting to the Stanley Cup Final. The best team in the NHL’s Western Conference, the Oilers deserve to be playing for the league’s biggest prize. They first eliminated a physical team in the Los Angeles Kings, then took out the Pacific-leading Vancouver Canucks. Finally, they beat the consensus favorite Dallas Stars. This is a good hockey team and as Connor McDavid said after a Game 3 loss, “Just keep cheering. It’s not over until it’s over.”
McDavid is right. The Oilers can still come back. It would be a near-impossible task against an excellent Florida Panthers team, but if any roster can do it, it’s Edmonton’s. They boast the most offensively dynamic players with the NHL’s best power play. It shockingly hasn’t clicked at all in Games 1-3, but if it gets going, the series could shift.
Everyone better hope so, because if the top stars continue to go scoreless and the power play stays flat, expect big offseason changes.
Questions About the Top Guys Not Getting It Done
If this series ends in the same way things have started, there will be real questions about this roster. Sure, it seems early to question how the mix of McDavid, Leon Draisaitl, Zach Hyman, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, and other top guys mesh. And no, this isn’t Toronto where the same core has failed to go anywhere in the playoffs in multiple seasons. Still, if none of these four score a goal in a series where everything is on the line, there will be doubts.
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Did McDavid change his game too much? Can Draisaitl push his own line and make ordinary players top-six guys? Is Hyman only a byproduct of McDavid’s success and an elite power play? Is Nugent-Hopkins truly a top guy? As harsh as it sounds, the offseason will be flooded with questions like this if the Oilers get swept.
Management Is Changing
This is Ken Holland’s last kick at the can for the Oilers. He’ll likely be moving on after five seasons of trying to build a contending roster in his image. It’s one thing if the Oilers make a series of this and it goes six or seven games. It’s another if Edmonton is ousted in four games. Holland will leave and a new GM will come in, potentially looking to change things.
A new GM won’t be married to this core group. Specifically, Draisaitl has one more season on his current deal and will then be a pending UFA looking for a massive contract. If he asks for big money, management may look back at this series and ask where he was when he claimed to be a big-game player and didn’t score. Draisaitl said after Game 3, “I pride myself on being good in the playoffs and playing well, just can’t seem to get anything going.” Is it fair to overlook everything else he’s done and focus in on four games? Of course not. Will people? Absolutely.
No doubt, Draisaitl is an incredible player. Moving on from him would likely be a mistake. But, the idea that a big contract extension looms, a new GM will want to make his mark, Draisaitl may not be sure he can win with the Oilers, and laying an egg in the Cup Final will hang over his extension talks like a dark cloud.
Depth Pieces Will Be Moved
A series sweep or a quick out likely means the end of the run for names like Cody Ceci, Connor Brown, Warren Foegele, Corey Perry, Adam Henrique, and potentially Ryan McLeod, Vincent Desharnais, Calvin Pickard, and Evander Kane. These are players that will either want more than new management will be prepared to pay, didn’t pull their weight in a series where everything was on the line, or are already overpaid for their level of production.
The cap is rising, but the Oilers are dealing with bonus overages, some large contracts that could pose issues in attracting the right pieces, and change is inevitable if and when the season ends in shame.
The Oilers need to win a game in this series. Not just to avoid being swept, but for people to look back at this team and remember it fondly. Right now, it’s about one game. Long-term it’s about avoiding the label of a team who dropped the ball when the best players in the world had a chance to become legends and win as a group. These top stars have been trying their best to finish what they started. They need to go down swinging if they want to stay together.