The Stanley Cup Final begins on Saturday night, and this series between the Edmonton Oilers and the Florida Panthers looks to be one to remember. It can go either way, and there are stars everywhere with highlight plays that are sure to happen on any given shift. Connor McDavid against Matthew Tkachuk might not be the most prominent on-ice matchup (that probably belongs to the McDavid vs. Aleksander Barkov matchup, pairing the best scoring center against the best defensive center). However, they are the two superstar players who headline this series and will probably win the Conn Smythe Trophy by the end of the series.
McDavid, without question, is the best player in the world, and his first Cup Final appearance is long overdue. His accolades speak for themselves, along with his on-ice play. At his best, there’s no way McDavid loses. That said, Tkachuk is the one who will take over this series.
Related: Analysts Giving Panthers’ Physicality Too Much Love vs. Oilers
Tkachuk has transformed the Panthers since the trade in the 2022 offseason, and like McDavid, he’s unstoppable when he’s on his game. The Panthers only reached the Stanley Cup Final once in 28 years before his arrival, and in two seasons, the team has made two appearances in the Final. In a series with a ton of star power, look for Tkachuk to stand out and lead the way.
Tkachuk’s Two-Way Physical Play
This series can become a defensive battle, especially if the Panthers set the tone. Their defense has fueled their playoff run, and while the Oilers also made it on the backs of great defense, allowing only 14 goals in the six-game Western Conference Final series, the Panthers will control things with their defense.
Tkachuk makes all the difference in this type of series. He’ll win with his forecheck and hard hits in the offensive zone that can force the Oilers to surrender the puck. Moreover, his great defensive play overall will allow the Panthers to possess the puck more and turn defense into instant offense.
In a league where great power forwards are a rarity, Tkachuk is the star who is the toughest to prepare for. He is arguably tougher than a skilled player like McDavid since teams have few solutions to stop him. Evander Kane is an option, but he’s battling injuries and is still a few tiers below Tkachuk. So, Kane, even at his best, can only do so much to limit the Panthers’ top player.
Tkachuk’s Clutch Scoring
McDavid has more goals in the playoffs than Tkachuk, outscoring him 34 to 23. Tkachuk has more goals that matter. It’s hard to say that some players are clutch and others aren’t, especially since great players find the back of the net regardless of the situation, but the Panthers have a skater they can count on to put them on the scoreboard in close games.
Tkachuk has scored multiple goals in both playoff runs for the Panthers, which have come at crucial times. In Game 5 in the 2023 First Round, with the team on the brink of elimination, he scored the overtime winner to allow them to eventually complete the series upset. His goal in Game 4 of the 2023 Eastern Conference Final came with seconds left, sending the Panthers to the Stanley Cup Final. Those are just two of the six game-winning goals Tkachuk has scored in the last two playoff runs, and it’s been a common occurrence to see him lift the team in close games.
When the Panthers need to find the back of the net, Tkachuk delivers. In the upcoming series, the great skaters must step up when it matters most, and Tkachuk can do just that.
Oilers Woes Against Tkachuk
Tkachuk has 10 goals and 16 assists in the 32 regular season games he’s played against the Oilers. That’s decent production from a star-level player, but not even the most impressive moment he’s had against them. He took over Game 1 of the 2022 Second Round, known as the “Battle of Alberta,” with a hat trick that helped give the Calgary Flames their first and only win of that series.
The point is that Tkachuk’s been a thorn in the Oilers’ side for years and he has their number. When he was traded to the Panthers, the Oilers didn’t think they’d have to deal with him again. Well, now they do, and with only four wins separating them from their first Cup title since 1990, Tkachuk can deliver a gut-wrenching blow on the biggest stage. Last season was a tough pill to swallow as Jack Eichel, the selection right behind McDavid in the 2015 NHL Entry Draft, defeated them in the Second Round and led the Vegas Golden Knights to the title. A familiar foe can deliver a more devasting defeat this time, with the Cup right there for the taking.
Why Tkachuk Will Win the Conn Smythe
Last season, the Panthers saw firsthand how hard it is to win it all. They ran out of gas in the Final, and the Golden Knights took advantage, dominating a series that wasn’t all that close. Heading into the series this season, they know what it takes to win it all, and they’ll have enough gas in the tank. It all starts with Tkachuk, who will set the tone for the team throughout the series.
He hasn’t been the best player in the playoffs for the Panthers so far, at least not by a significant margin. Tkachuk leads the team in points with five goals and 14 assists, but Carter Verhaeghe has a team-high nine goals, while Barkov has also impressed across the board. This series is the time for him to stand out. He’ll find the back of the net a few times, notably in crucial moments, and open up the offense with a few big assists, something he’s done throughout the playoffs already.
On top of that, this series looks to go the distance with plenty of one-goal games. In a winner-take-all game, Tkachuk is the player who can make all the difference, and even with McDavid playing at a high level, he will give the Panthers that slight edge.
