Just a few weeks ago, rumors were swirling that 33-year-old Tomas Tatar would take his talents overseas after a rough 2023-24 campaign. But he quickly changed his mind when the New Jersey Devils came calling with a one-year, $1.8 million contract. He said returning to New Jersey “felt like coming home.”
Tatar had a stellar campaign with the Devils two seasons ago (2022-23), especially when he was placed alongside Nico Hischier and Dawson Mercer – the trio had a 64.5 expected goals-for percentage (xGF%), which made them the second-most effective line in the NHL that season (min. 200 TOI, via MoneyPuck).
They outscored their opposition by 80% (18-to-10), and Mercer and Hischier reached a career-high in both goals and points. Tatar notched his most goals and points in three seasons himself. Without Tatar as a linemate, Hischier and Mercer faced an 18.3% downtrend in xGF%. With him, their high-danger chance differential was a remarkable plus-36. But without him, it was dead even at zero. After a down year for Tatar with the Seattle Kraken and Colorado Avalanche, could they regain their chemistry?
Like Tatar Never Left…
Head coach Sheldon Keefe gave it a shot in camp and has not been given a reason to split them up. Mercer said with a smile, “It’s really good to have that comfort feeling (with Tatar)”.
Related: New Jersey Devils’ Secondary Scoring Is a Key to Their Success
The numbers back that up, as the line had an impressive 62 xGF% in the preseason. They didn’t allow a single goal in almost 23 minutes of ice time, outmatched opponents in high-danger chances (5-to-2), and led in shot attempts 30-to-13. From the eye test, they didn’t look out of sync at any point; passes were tape-to-tape, and they all had a sixth sense of where the other would be at any given moment.
When the season kicked off in Prague, Czechia, against the Buffalo Sabres, it was more of the same. They had 25% more scoring chances than Buffalo, played to a 62.5 xGF%, and have not surrendered a goal in their almost 21 minutes played (via Natural Stat Trick).
This place is on FIRE🔥🔥 TOMAS TATAR!!! pic.twitter.com/rhpVbFO0Zz
— Devils on MSG (@DevilsMSGN) May 2, 2023
If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it. The Devils had a franchise record 52 wins in 2022-23, and (on paper) this year’s team is arguably stronger. Not only does Tatar solidify their top-six (at a decent price), but he also allows for many other facets of the team to succeed.
First, the bottom-six can become more representative of what a championship-caliber team looks like. Ondrej Palat can slip down to the third line, alongside Erik Haula and Stefan Noesen. That line is a perfect mix of defense and grit, with a nice scoring touch. Then that allows Paul Cotter – who is actually capable of playing top-six minutes – to slot on the fourth line with defense-minded Curtis Lazar and a big body in Nathan Bastian.
Tatar’s return has had a domino effect, which will help all the forwards thrive in their roles. We saw last season what putting players in roles they shouldn’t have does to a team. But with a healthy Tatar, that shouldn’t have to happen. He probably isn’t going to shatter the earth and score 25 goals or 60+ points. But if he can push close to his numbers from two seasons ago (20 goals and 48 points) and play the sound defense that he has done throughout his career, the Devils will be a much better team because of it.
Even in a down season last year, Tatar was still a plus-10 in even-strength scenarios and held 60% of the high-danger goal share – that was while being bounced between 12 different lines (min. 10 TOI). The bottom line is this: Tatar is a great complementary player, but apparently, the Devils are the only team to view him as such. As long as there’s no massive downtrend and Tatar stays healthy, the entire Devils team will reap the benefits.
