Leon Draisaitl and the Edmonton Oilers’ front office made history on Tuesday (Sept. 3). The Oilers signed their superstar center to an eight-year, $112 million contract that kicks in for the 2025-26 season. Draisaitl’s new contract carries the highest average annual value (AAV) in league history at $14 million per season. While Edmonton finally put a long discussion with one of their top players to bed, can management surround him and Connor McDavid with the proper pieces to win the Stanley Cup?
Related: Grading Oilers’ Monster Contract Extension for Leon Draisaitl
There’s minimal surprise a player of Draisaitl’s caliber earned a lucrative deal at 28 years old. That money is expected when a superstar’s contract expires in their prime during their late 20s. Comparing Draisaitl to another of the league’s superstars, Nikita Kucherov, the Tampa Bay Lightning were much more tactical when dealing with their top player’s contract, and they have championships to show for it.
Draisaitl and Kucherov’s Contract History
Draisaitl was about to hit the open market in the prime of his career because he signed an eight-year, $68 million deal following his entry-level contract. In the final season of his entry-level deal, the German forward posted 29 goals and 48 assists for 77 points in 82 games (0.94 points per game). Edmonton wanted to go long-term with their third overall pick in 2014, knowing they could get him on a steal of a deal in his mid-20s.
Meanwhile, Kucherov posted similar numbers to Draisaitl and signed a three-year bridge deal with an AAV of $4.766 million per season. Before signing that contract, Kucherov notched 30 goals and 36 assists for 66 points in 77 games (0.86 points per game). Signing a bridge deal allowed the Lightning to sign Kucherov to his eventual big deal, an eight-year, $76 million contract following his MVP season with 128 points in 2018-19.
Draisaitl and Kucherov: Comparing the Numbers
Many people consider the Draisaitl contract a fantastic deal. However, Kucherov has put up slightly better numbers over the past five seasons and will be paid $5.5 million less than Draisaitl in 2025-26. Yes, Kucherov played in a no-income-tax state and signed his deal at a different time, but that shouldn’t discredit the tactical work of the Lightning front office in contract negotiations.
Over the past five seasons, Draisaitl registered 4.01 points per 60 (P/60) compared to Kucherov’s 4.36 P/60. The stats are on a per 60 rate due to Kucherov’s injury which kept him out for the entire 2020-21 regular season. In the playoffs, Draisaitl’s numbers are slightly better with 4.02 P/60 versus Kucherov’s 3.85 P/60. Ultimately, the two superstars are very similar in production, while Kucherov has two rings to show. One would think their salaries would be relatively similar. However, that is not the case.
The Age Curve Factor
The Lightning structured Kucherov’s deal perfectly around the age curve, where most peak in their mid-20s and start to slow down in their early 30s. This strategy allows the Lightning to keep their contention window open and surround their star players with quality depth to capture championships. On the other hand, the Oilers may run into some trouble down the road with Draisaitl’s new contract.
Draisaitl’s extension doesn’t kick in until the 2025-26 season when he will be nearly 30 years old. On the other hand, Kucherov has three years remaining on his deal (including the 2024-25 season) at 31 years old. The Lightning forward will need a new contract at 34 years old, right about when a player of his caliber will start to decline. Meanwhile, Draisaitl’s new deal as the highest-paid player in the league will take him to 37 years old, where his production likely won’t look similar, making him an overpaid veteran.
Ultimately, Kucherov is criminally underpaid due to the market he plays in along with the intellect of the Lightning’s front office to ensure his deal wouldn’t expire in the prime of his career. While the Oilers did the right thing to lock up Draisaitl, this deal may haunt them years from now.
