In the 2024-25 season, the Jets will look to recapture the regular-season success they had last season and to actually advance past the first round of the playoffs since 2021. They’ll be in tough to replicate their 52-win 2023-24 as they lost a number of key contributors, and if things go wrong, they could see regression.
However, if plenty of things go as hoped, they could be a top-three team in the Central Division again. Here, we’ll explore the Jets’ best- and worst-case scenarios for the 2024-25 season.
Best-Case Scenario: Youth Movement Complements Core Players and Jets Make the Playoffs
While the Jets still have a strong core of established and budding stars — Kyle Connor, Nikolaj Ehlers, Connor Hellebuyck, Josh Morrissey, Mark Scheifele, Gabriel Vilardi, and others — they are not as strong on paper to enter 2024-25 as they were to end 2023-24. They lost a lot in free agency, including top-six forwards Sean Monahan and Tyler Toffoli to the Columbus Blue Jackets and San Jose Sharks, respectively, top-four defenseman Brenden Dillon to the New Jersey Devils, and stellar backup goaltender Laurent Brossoit to the Chicago Blackhawks.
General manager Kevin Cheveldayoff didn’t sign anyone flashy in free agency to replace them, so new head coach Scott Arniel will have to lean on his youth — who he described as “vital” — to be solid NHL contributors and complement what more experienced and established players in Connor, Morrissey, Scheifele, Hellebuyck and company have become known to do (Connor, score 30-plus goals; Morrissey, be an elite offensive defenseman; Hellebuyck, be in the Vezina Trophy conversation again; Scheifele, operate at around a point-per-game clip, etc.)
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The three main beneficiaries of this youth-movement-by-necessity appear to be Brad Lambert, Ville Heinola, and Cole Perfetti. Lambert, with Monahan’s departure, is among the candidates for the second-line centre role after leading the Moose in points last season with 55 (21 goals, 34 assists) in top-line-centre and first-unit power-play roles. If the 2022 30th-overall pick isn’t ready for a top-six role up the middle yet, he could still snag a spot on the wing.
Heinola, with Dillon’s departure, also appears to be in a good spot to finally snag a full-time roster spot five years after being drafted 20th overall in 2019. The Finn played well enough last preseason to make the team, now-retired head coach Rick Bowness said, but a fractured ankle suffered in the final preseason tune-up quashed the opportunity the defender earned. He instead spent four months rehabbing before getting back up to speed with the Moose in the second half, suiting up for 41 in top-pairing and top power-play roles, recording 27 points (10 goals, 17 assists.)
Heinola’s actual defensive play has been questionable at times, but he’ll have to be solid enough on a d corps that also features Morrissey, Dylan DeMelo, Colin Miller, Neal Pionk, and Dylan Samberg if the team is going to be as stingy as last season when they allowed a league-low 199 goals.
Perfetti, another candidate for the second-line centre role, should not be a healthy scratch as he often was down the stretch last season. If he can be as good for all of this season as he was for the first half of last season, it’ll go a long way to replacing some of the offense lost with Monahan’s departure (.70 points per game.) Perfetti, the 10th-overall 2020 pick, racked up 29 points (12 goals, 17 assists) in his first 41 games, but fell into an extended scoring drought down the stretch and was either put on the fourth line or parked in the press box after Toffoli came aboard.
If the Jets’ youngsters adapt well to expanded roles, the stars do what they’re supposed to, and they get steady secondary contributions from Mason Appleton, Morgan Barron, Adam Lowry, Vladislav Namestnikov, and others the offense should be fine. The Jets’ success last season didn’t come primarily from outscoring teams in run-and-gun barn-burners, anyway -— in fact, when they got suckered into that type of game, you knew they were deviating from the blueprint for success Bowness set for them. Their success came from how little they gave up at five on five; at one point, they went 34-consecutive games without allowing more than three goals.
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In net, the best-case scenario is that Hellebuyck plays similarly to last season, when he won his second Vezina Trophy, and that Eric Comrie or Kaapo Kahkonen (whoever wins the battle to be his backup) is reliable enough that Arniel doesn’t have to run Hellebuyck ragged with 65-plus starts.
This writer currently believes the Dallas Stars and Colorado Avalanche will finish first and second in the Central, but if all the above happens and the Jets don’t have too many injuries to key players at inopportune times, there’s no reason they can’t challenge for third in the division — or at least snag a Western Conference wild-card spot — to make the playoffs again.
Worst Case Scenario: Jets Cannot Overcome Free-Agent Losses Or Improve Special Teams and Regress
On the flip side, there are a lot of things that, if they happen, could prevent the Jets from making the playoffs in a Central Division where other teams such as the Avalanche and Nashville Predators had much better offseasons.
The youth could fail to adequately fill the holes in the lineup and prove too young or inexperienced for prime time. If Heinola, Lambert, and Perfetti have persistent struggles in their expanded roles against opponents’ best players, the Jets’ offense and defense will be worse than last season.
In a worst-case scenario, the Jets’ special teams would not see improvement. It’s all well and good to be incredible at five on five but a team good at even strength can still lose a game only because of poor special teams. The relatively-few minutes a team may spend up or down a man (or two) on any given night can make a disproportionate impact on the final score.
The Jets’ special teams were subpar last season and cost them more than a handful of games as their power play finished 22nd in the NHL with an 18.75 per cent efficiency and the penalty kill finished 21st with a 77.13 per cent kill rate. Arniel has brought new assistant coaches in Davis Payne and Dean Chynoweth on board to help turn the regimes around with fresh perspectives and new tactics, but if they can’t do it, the Jets won’t achieve all they can and will be in a tough spot if they’re also not as strong at five on five.
In net, a worst-case scenario would see either Comrie or Kahkonen do poorly in their starts, forcing Arniel to start Hellebuyck 65-plus times (he started 60 last season.) Mismanaging Hellebuyck’s workload has come back to bite the Jets down the stretch in past seasons, and they need him fresh in March and April when games often matter the most for a playoff position or berth. Bowness did a bit of a better job of not overworking Hellebuyck than Paul Maurice and Dave Lowry did, and we’ll see who Arniel emulates.
A worst-case scenario could also lead to Ehlers being traded, and dealing a top-six player is not a good look for a team that considers itself a Stanley Cup contender. The dynamic forward is a pending unrestricted free agent in the last season of his contract, and if the Jets haven’t re-signed him and aren’t competitive by the 2025 Trade Deadline, Cheveldayoff may be forced to swap him for future assets to avoid losing him for nothing.
A worse-case scenario would also include long-term injuries to, or unexpected down seasons from, star players. Most of the Jets’ stars have been fairly consistent throughout their careers and none are at risk of declining due to age yet, but a rough season for someone is always in the realm of possibility. Injuries are something the team cannot control, but always threaten to disrupt chemistry or derail a campaign completely (Hellebuyck going down would likely do the latter.) The Jets do have a few players in Ehlers and Perfetti who, before last season, have had a hard time staying healthy.
Lastly, there are a few things related to coaching that would be worst-case scenarios, namely the Jets as a whole not responding to Arniel’s coaching style or Arniel trying and failing to implement big play style or identity changes. Both seem unlikely, though, as he was part of helping Bowness mold the Jets into the defence-focused and tight team they are today.
A Lot In Flux For Jets Entering 2024-25
As we can see, there is a lot in flux for the Jets as they enter the season with younger players attempting to cement bigger roles under a new coaching staff. As we can also see, there’s a lot that could go well and a lot that could go badly. Ultimately, the Jets’ season will likely land in the middle of our two scenarios, with some things going smoothly and other things not. Time will ultimately tell whether the Jets will be able to replicate their success or will take a step back.