The Winnipeg Jets’ October was a decidedly mixed bag, not unlike your kid’s Halloween candy you’re currently stealing from.
The team went 4-3-2 and excelled in some aspects of their game, but struggled mightily in others. Some games looked close to their blueprint for success, while others looked way off. A number of players chipped in, but no one dominated. The team sometimes showed resilience, but also let a couple wins slip away.
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Here, we’ll look at three keys to Jets success in their 13-game November.
1: Sharpen Special Teams
The Jets play at five-on-five has been pretty good, all told, and they’ve often controlled games at even strength for long stretches. However, their special teams are consistently letting them down and leading to losses in close games.
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The power play has been abysmal, anemic, and predictable — just four-for-34 overall and in the midst of a zero-for-13 slump over their past four games. Operating at just 11.09 per cent efficiency, both units have failed to retain possession in the offensive zone or generate dangerous chances: they do a lot of passing around the perimeter, but not much else.
In addition to sapping momentum instead of building it, the lack of power play success has led to points left on the table. Special teams was the difference in their two most recent losses: they fell in a shootout to the Montreal Canadiens on Oct. 28 and in overtime to the New York Rangers on Oct. 30 and both times, they entered the three-on-three extra frame on a power play that went unconverted.
Cole Perfetti, whose playmaking skills have netted him five assists and six points this season, has replaced Nikolaj Ehlers as the net-front presence on the revamped top unit. That could make a difference, but the biggest difference would simply be to get back to basics. Both units need to get more pucks to the net and look for rebounds instead of trying — and failing — to set up the “perfect” play.
The Jets’ penalty kill, meanwhile, has been equally as poor. They’re operating at just 71.88 per cent efficiency, 29th in the league, and have given up at least one power play goal in eight of nine games. That’s a far cry from 82.43 per cent efficiency a stout and strong contingency operated at to finish seventh-best in the league last season.
Two late power play goals in particular have burned the Jets: Mika Zibanejad’s game-tying goal on Oct. 30 against the Rangers and Jack Eichel’s game-winner with less than five minutes to go on Oct. 19 against the Vegas Golden Knights. Both show how an opportune man-advantage marker can be the difference in a game.
A team’s power play percentage and penalty killing percentage need to add up to 100, and the Jets’ only adds up to 82.97. Getting that number closer to triple digits will be necessary to prevail in tight ones.
2: Get More Consistent Goaltending
Would the real Connor Hellebuyck please stand up?
The goaltender had an uneven month and downright floundered in his first three starts after signing a massive seven-year contract extension on Oct. 9 that will keep him one of the league’s highest-paid net minders through 2030-31.
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He let his team down in the season opener by allowing four goals on just 21 shots against the Calgary Flames in a game the Jets dominated throughout, allowed four goals on 33 shots in the home opener against the Florida Panthers — including two goals in quick succession late in the third that saw a comfortable 5-2 lead change to a nail-biting 5-4 one before an empty netter saved him — and allowed five goals on 29 shots against the Los Angeles Kings.
He performed better in his four starts thereafter, posting a 3-0-1 record and allowing just six goals. Overall, though, Hellebuyck’s numbers are still subpar considering he’s considered one of the league’s elite goaltenders: a 2.96 goals against average, .898 save percentage, and a -1.7 goals saved above average.
The Jets will hope November will bring them get the big, boring, and positionally sound Hellebuyck who had a 2.49 GAA, .920 SV%, and a .688 quality start percentage last season.
Meanwhile, backup Laurent Brossoit has not played well in a small sample size. In two starts, the 30-year-old, who is trying to prove to the rest of the league he’s starter calibre, is 0-1-1 with a 3.38 GAA, .873 SV%, and a -1.8 goals saved above average.
He gave up four goals on 26 shots against his former Golden Knights squad on Oct. 19 and while he was better against the Canadiens, stopping 26 of 29, he looked to really be fighting the puck.
3: Keep The Third Line Cooking
The Jets have gotten decent, if not unremarkable, production from their top six and its inevitable players like Kyle Connor, Ehlers, and Mark Scheifele will amass points at a steady clip.
However, secondary scoring often separates true contenders from teams in the mushy middle, and GM Kevin Cheveldayoff focused hard in the offseason to deepen the forward group to achieve that goal.
Early results are promising as head coach Rick Bowness — and associate coach Scott Arniel, filling in as bench boss while Bowness is away due to his wife Judy’s medical issues — have seen the formidable third line of Mason Appleton, Adam Lowry, and Nino Niederreiter produce at a high level.
The trio has combined for five goals and six assists in the past three games and has posted a 61 percent expected goals percentage in five games together, according to Moneypuck.com. Even more impressively, their 3.07 expected goals per 60 minutes is the highest of all the Jets’ current lines. Their doggedness on the puck, directness, and noses for the net are obviously all serving them well.
“They just do it the hard way, go out and work their tails off. They grind,” Arniel said recently. “They’re big bodies and they do a great job of supporting each other. It seems like one guy is in there pounding, the other guy is real close for support. They do a good job of putting pucks on the net.” (From Jets finding their game, Winnipeg Free Press, Oct. 29, 2023.)
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The line is currently getting 15 minutes per game, but Arniel — and Bowness when he returns — should not hesitate to put it over the boards in any situation.