The Norris Trophy is always the most fascinating award for me. Does it go to the best offensive defenseman in the NHL? Or does it go to the best all-around defender as it should? Quinn Hughes is on a historic pace points-wise, but unlike the debate with Erik Karlsson and his defensive struggles with the San Jose Sharks a season ago, that shouldn’t be a concern with Hughes. Let’s look at his season and who else is in the Norris Trophy race.
5. Noah Dobson
The New York Islanders’ season hasn’t gone according to plan, but Noah Dobson has been one of their bright spots. The 24-year-old defender has 65 points in 71 games, putting him on pace to finish with 75, which would easily set a career-high.
The knock on Dobson has always been his defensive game. His season started poorly defensively, but he’s made strides in his own end and has become a net-positive on defense; his even-strength defense has been worth a goals above replacement (GAR) of 1.2. All his defensive metrics were in the red a season ago, so that shows how much he’s grown in such a short time.
Related: 2023-24 Hart Trophy Race: February Update
Offensively, Dobson has been elite. On a team that doesn’t have a ton of offensive firepower, he’s helped create quite a bit, both at five-on-five and the power play. The reason I don’t have him in the top three is that his defensive impacts lag behind my top three candidates, but he has been quite excellent this season. I’d be surprised if voters didn’t consider him for the Norris once the regular season concludes.
4. Roman Josi
I had Brent Burns in my top three when I first published this a little over a month ago. He’s still having an excellent season, but it’s hard to ignore Roman Josi and what he’s meant for the Nashville Predators during their 16-0-2 run. He has 19 goals and 72 points in 73 games and has decent odds of finishing with over 20 goals and 80 points by the time the regular season concludes.
It’s not just about the counting totals with Josi, though. His impact goes far beyond that. His play has been worth a total GAR of 18.1, placing him fourth in the NHL in that metric among defensemen. He’s been one of the most valuable offensive blueliners in the league, with his overall offensive game being worth a GAR of 15.5, also ranked fourth among defensemen.
While he has more value offensively than defensively, Josi has not been a defensive liability by any stretch. Like Evan Bouchard, who we’ll get to in a minute, he’s been a steady two-way presence who’s had a positive impact in all facets of the game, including the power play. It’s a bit of a late run from Josi to get into the Norris conversation, but he deserves it. I think he’ll have a hard time supplanting the three blueliners listed in the rest of this article, but he’s having another excellent season.
3. Cale Makar
The final three candidates here may be obvious, but they won’t go unnoticed. Cale Makar has been incredibly productive, with 78 points in 67 games, putting him on pace to finish with 90 points in 77 contests. His impacts have been quite good for a Colorado Avalanche team that has Stanley Cup aspirations.
Makar’s play has been worth a total GAR of 15.7, ranked sixth in the NHL for blueliners. He’s been having a positive impact at even strength and on the power play. The Avalanche have been generating plenty of offense with him on the ice at five-on-five (2.76 expected goals per 60) and scoring plenty of goals, too.
Defensively, Makar has been one of the team’s better shot suppressors, giving up 2.36 expected goals per 60 minutes at five-on-five. But where he’s really made a difference is on the power play. He’s been the fourth-most efficient point producer league-wide on the power play for defensemen, averaging 6.86 points per 60 minutes, placing him just behind Victor Hedman, Adam Fox, and Bouchard.
Makar has been solid this season, but I wonder where he would be in the Norris race if it weren’t for his production on the power play. He hasn’t been a net negative at even strength or a liability defensively, but he hasn’t been as dominant as in previous seasons. Still, a 90-plus-point pace will likely have him in the top three.
2. Evan Bouchard
Evan Bouchard may have a reputation for being just an offensive defenseman, but that’s not entirely true. While the strength of his game is on offense, he’s a well-rounded two-way defender who should be in the Norris conversation this season.
Bouchard has been one of the top point-producing defensemen in the NHL, with 72 points in 70 games, putting him on pace to finish with 84 points. His play has been worth a total goals above replacement (GAR) of 19, ranked second in the NHL among defensemen. And it’s due to his well-rounded two-way play.
Through 47 games, Bouchard’s even-strength defense has been worth a GAR of 5.2, while his offense has been worth a GAR of 10.2. The Oilers have been dominant when he’s on the ice at five-on-five, as he’s second on the team in expected goals share (xG%) at 62.09 percent. He’s been one of the best creators of offense from the back end of any defenseman, and he does an excellent job suppressing shots.
In addition to his even-strength play, Bouchard has been one of the best power-play quarterbacks in the NHL, averaging the most points per 60 minutes among blueliners. It’ll be interesting to see if voters feel the same about him at the end of the season, but I think he has a very reasonable case to be second in Norris Trophy voting behind Quinn Hughes.
1. Quinn Hughes
This shouldn’t come as a surprise, but Vancouver Canucks defenseman Quinn Hughes is the frontrunner for the Norris Trophy, as he should be, and he really has been since the start of the season. Hughes was once on pace for 101 points. It doesn’t look like he’ll hit that anymore, but he is still tracking for 92.
It’s not just about his point totals, though. Hughes has been one of the most impactful defensemen in the NHL. His play has been worth a total GAR of 21.9, the best mark in the league for defensemen. He’s been the second-most valuable blueliner offensively in the NHL, with his even-strength offense worth a GAR of 14.9; only Zach Werenski has provided more value offensively.
Scoring-wise, Hughes has been one of the most efficient point-producing defensemen in the NHL at five-on-five, averaging 1.73 points per 60 minutes. That’s the fourth league-wide, placing him behind Makar, Hedman and Shea Theodore. And for those who think Hughes is strictly an offensive defenseman, his defensive impacts have been excellent, too:
As long as Hughes stays healthy for the rest of the season, he should come away with the Norris Trophy. This isn’t to disparage anyone else in the running for the award, but he’s the clear frontrunner. He’s been that good and is a significant reason why the Canucks lead the Pacific Division.
Honorable Mentions
One notable omission from the top five was Hedman. While he’s over a point-per-game pace, he’s been a significant net negative defensively this season. The offensive value is there, both on the power play and at even strength, but his defensive game has dropped off quite a bit. That should keep him out of being a finalist for the Norris, but you never know, given his reputation. After all, Karlsson won it last season while being a significant net negative defensively.
Either way, the Norris Trophy is Hughes’ to lose. Makar will give him a run for his money, but the oldest Hughes brother is having a career season that will likely net him some hardware at the NHL awards.
* * *
Advanced stats from Evolving-Hockey, Natural Stat Trick
