After season after season of regular season success and playoff disappointment, many fans of the Toronto Maple Leafs have maintained a reserved disposition towards the start of the upcoming 2024-25 season. It makes sense — despite however much talent has been on the roster, their playoff success (or lack thereof) speaks for itself. After a strong offseason, though, the Maple Leafs are poised to make a breakthrough in this regard. Here are three reasons for maintaining a positive outlook in 2024-25:
1. Much-Improved Defense Corps
Let’s face it — the Maple Leafs’ defence corps hasn’t been all that great in recent years. On the defensive front, things have been more or less fine, but they haven’t been able to muster up much of anything outside of Morgan Rielly in terms of moving the puck up-ice. This offseason, though, general manager (GM) Brad Treliving sought to change that with the additions of Chris Tanev and Oliver Ekman-Larsson.
Tanev, though predominantly known for his defensive play, is a sneakily underrated puck-mover. He isn’t much for points, but his puck-retrieval ability in his own end speaks for itself in terms of its importance in breaking out the other way. He’s quick to send the puck to either his defence partner — who should be Rielly in 2024-25 — or a nearby forward. According to AllThreeZones, Tanev ranked in the 81st percentile for neutral zone shot attempts, meaning that he was quite effective in passing the puck in the neutral zone to players who would then be able to get a shot off while on the rush. At the very least, he’s a major puck-moving improvement over the likes of TJ Brodie and Ilya Lyubushkin, Rielly’s two most common defence partners last season. Rielly should be able to do more with the puck now that Tanev should be relieving some of the pressure off of him.
Moving on to the other defensive addition, Ekman-Larsson is one of the most underrated puck-moving defencemen in the entire NHL. There was — and is — a bit of a pushback on his four-year, $3.5 million average annual value (AAV) contract considering his career trajectory leading up to last season, but the reservations about his new deal come along with some false concerns that he won’t be able to replicate or come close to the player he was in 2023-24. Ekman-Larsson’s role last season as the Florida Panthers’ puck-mover on the third pairing was the perfect position for him as he was able to feast on weaker opponents. He ranked in the 100th percentile among defensemen for zone exit success rate with the puck on his stick and in the 89th percentile for contributions to scoring chances. In addition to that, he ranked 16th in the NHL among defencemen in offensive expected goals above replacement (xGAR). I wouldn’t expect that type of success again, but there’s no reason to assume he’ll fall off a cliff.
If anything should bring optimism to the minds of Maple Leafs fans leading up to the season opener, it’s this. Toronto hasn’t had a real puck-moving defence corps in years. Rielly has always been there, but outside of him, there hasn’t been much to write home about in that regard. Now, though, there are three solid transitional defensemen who should be able to help push the offence forward and it should result in a better offence across the board.
2. Potential Breakout Seasons
The Maple Leafs have long struggled with depth scoring, a lot of which has to do with a lack of cheap, young talent to complement their highly-paid star forwards. This season, though, things are primed to change. For one, Matthew Knies should be a staple in the team’s top-six after 2023-24 saw the 21-year-old put up 15 goals and 35 total points across 80 games while averaging less than 14 minutes per game. In an increased role while presumably playing with the team’s top talents Auston Matthews and Mitch Marner, Knies is poised for a breakout campaign. I wouldn’t be surprised to see the gritty winger skyrocket up to 60 or more points.
With the departure of Tyler Bertuzzi, who signed with the Chicago Blackhawks in free agency, there’s another hole in the top six that a potential breakout candidate can fill. As of right now, Daily Faceoff has Bobby McMann penciled into that spot, but I think he’s a better fit for the third line than top-six duties. Instead, I think the Maple Leafs should pivot to giving that opportunity to Nick Robertson, who requested a trade in late June after contract negotiations went nowhere. Given the radio silence and his lack of arbitration rights, Treliving is likely sitting pat until Robertson realizes that there isn’t a path forward that doesn’t involve playing for Toronto. He’s proven that he can handle things at the NHL level — he was a near-half-point-per-game player last season with 27 points in 56 games. At the very least, he can be competitive for that second-line wing role and should be able to surpass 40 points in a full season if he doesn’t sit.
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Outside of those two, there are a couple of wildcard players. For one, Maple Leafs’ top prospect Easton Cowan probably deserves a look after lighting up the Ontario Hockey League (OHL) with 96 points in 52 games, breaking the London Knights’ record for longest point streak (34 games). If Robertson doesn’t end up staying in Toronto, I could certainly see a world in which Cowan makes a push for a middle-six role in the big leagues. His skillset doesn’t lend itself to bottom-line play, but his speed and skill could be a valuable addition to a team historically depleted of depth talent.
On defence, there isn’t much to look forward to in this regard, but another top prospect in Topi Niemela could see NHL time if he either has a phenomenal training camp or if someone gets injured mid-season. I don’t think he’ll be a regular in the lineup, but I would be remiss if he weren’t mentioned here.
3. Better Goaltending
Last season, the goaltending held the Maple Leafs back from success for much of the season. Despite how good he may have been down the stretch, let’s not forget that Ilya Samsonov spent prolonged time in the minor leagues after being waived and needing a “physical and mental reset.” Sure, they got respectable stretches of netminding from prospective 1A Joseph Woll and backup Martin Jones, but the bulk of the season was spent with shakiness between the pipes.
This season, though, with Woll and Anthony Stolarz in net, the Maple Leafs should be much more stabilized and consistent. In Woll’s case, his only issue has ever been his health. When he’s uninjured, he’s a league-average-at-worst goalie who has put up a career .912 save percentage (SV%) and singlehandedly dragged Toronto to Game 7 against the Boston Bruins after putting up an immaculate .964 SV% and 0.86 goals-against average (GAA) in the three games he played in the playoffs. If he can stay healthy, there’s a solid 1A netminder in the Queen City for the next four seasons.
Then, there’s Stolarz, whose signing may have been Treliving’s best move this offseason. With the reigning Cup champion Florida Panthers in 2023-24, he put together an astounding 2.03 GAA and .925 SV% in 27 games. Both marks were second in the NHL behind fellow backup Laurent Brossoit, who now plays for the Blackhawks. There’s no reason to believe he’s unable to have more than that workload, so he will most likely be starting 30-35 games if Woll stays healthy. Between the two of them, there are high hopes that they can be one of the best goaltending tandems in the Atlantic Division, if not the entire league.
2024-25 Is it for the Core
Looking at the roster breakdown, this might be the last season with the Maple Leafs core still fully intact. Half of the Core Four is on an expiring contract (Marner and ex-captain John Tavares) and at least one of them won’t be re-signed after this season. For Tavares, this could be the last hurrah in terms of his Cup aspirations, as this is the strongest team on paper that he’s ever played for. Let’s hope that the reasons for optimism heading into 2024-25 come to fruition and that Toronto can finally break the dismal cycle that has been plaguing them in the postseason since 2002.
