The Toronto Maple Leafs are in the midst of negotiating a contract extension with forward William Nylander. Obviously, many considerations go into these talks. However, what the team gets with Nylander isn’t tough to figure out, and it’s hard not to like what they’ve seen from him.
Still, there are many things to consider when negotiating with Nylander. Salary cap considerations are only one area. The team must also balance his perceived impact with what they feel is needed to get over the hump and compete for the Stanley Cup.
Balancing Act of Contract Negotiations
Toronto must also find a balance between a player’s performance, comparable contracts, financial constraints, and long-term goals. There’s no doubt that Nylander’s offensive ability and his consistent (and growing) point production make him a valuable asset.
However, there’s a balance. The Maple Leafs must assess their willingness to invest in him while maintaining roster depth under the cap, while Nylander must decide if he should stay where he’s played for the past eight seasons.
Impact of the Pierre-Luc Dubois Trade and Contract
On Tuesday, the Los Angeles Kings and Winnipeg Jets made a huge trade. Center Pierre-Luc Dubois was moved to the Kings for three players (forward Alex Iafallo, forward Rasmus Kupari, forward Gabriel Vilardi) and a second-round draft pick in the 2024 NHL Draft. It looks like a good deal for the Jets, who were basically moving a player who had no desire to re-sign with the team.
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But, from the Maple Leafs’ perspective, there was a kicker. Dubois signed an eight-year, $68 million contract that carries an AAV of $8.5 million with the Kings.
Comparing Nylander and Dubois as Players
Based on the statistics over their NHL careers, Nylander is much stronger offensively (at least to this point) than Dubois.
The 27-year-old Nylander has played 521 NHL games with 177 goals and 253 assists (for 430 points). His career-high season was in 2022-23, when he played 82 games, scoring 40 goals and 47 assists (for 87 points). Given that he’s been improving every season, there’s no reason he won’t be a point-a-game player in the future.
In comparison, the 25-year-old Dubois has played 434 games and has scored 129 goals and 173 assists (for 302 points). His career-high season was also last season when he played 73 games, scoring 27 goals and 36 assists (for 63 points). That’s the closest he’s come to a point-per-game season.
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Based on those stats, Nylander has a 430-point NHL career total compared to Pierre-Luc Dubois’ 302 points. Nylander has also achieved higher individual seasons in terms of goals, assists, and points. His most recent season (2022-23) was more impressive, with 40 goals and 87 points.
Other Factors That Might Impact the Contract Negotiations
Three other factors might impact the contract negotiations between the Maple Leafs and Nylander. Although they are close to each other in size – Dubois is a couple of inches taller – Dubois is more physical. Second, he’s also two years younger than Nylander. Finally, Dubois’ new salary starts this season. Nylander’s extension would kick in in 2024.
Nylander’s higher point production and recent strong performance suggest that he should command a higher contract value for the same term.
Comparisons Between Dubois and Nylander Are Only Information
Comparing the two players provides insight into Nylander’s potential value. Although they play different positions, Nylander has consistently outperformed Dubois, which should support Nylander’s case for a higher salary than Dubois received from the Kings.
Although the Maple Leafs recognize Nylander’s track record as a reliable goal scorer and point producer, when it comes to putting numbers on dotted lines that’s only information. What we don’t know is the specific threshold the Maple Leafs might not want to pass.
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What is not certain is what the team thinks they can afford on Nylander’s new contract. Financial constraints and the impact on the salary cap must be carefully considered. A contract of about $9 million as part of a long-term deal (say five or six seasons) seems reasonable given what Dubois signed for.
However, can the team afford that? Certainly, if Nylander’s camp seeks $9 million AAV as reasonable, the organization will have to understand that. But it still might be more than they are willing to spend. If that is the case, the Maple Leafs might have to explore trade options.
The Bottom Line
There are three main considerations in these contract negotiations. The first is Nylander’s fair market value. The Dubois trade and subsequent signing have helped with that. The second task is to find out if the Maple Leafs want to spend that much, given all the contextual aspects in which the team finds itself.
The third aspect is Nylander’s desire to accept an extension even at $9 million AAV. His agent Lewis Gross must be considering the possibility that Nylander could have a better chance at a bigger contract with another team where he’d be the top star rather than third in line as he is in Toronto.
We will see very soon how this all plays out for Nylander and for the Maple Leafs.