The one silver lining coming out of a season when everything that could go wrong for the New Jersey Devils did is that they enter the 2024 NHL Draft with the 10th overall pick in a draft stocked with top-level talent well beyond their selection. The Devils have depleted a once consensus top-five prospect pool through attrition and trades and would benefit from adding a bonafide talent.
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With Simon Nemec and Luke Hughes unlikely to leave the New Jersey blue line for a decade and Seamus Casey waiting in the wings, the team will likely focus on finding the best available forward. Currently, the Devils only have two forwards playing for their American Hockey League (AHL) affiliate in Utica, which they selected in one of the first three rounds, Chase Stillman and Graeme Clarke. Either or both may get another shot at NHL minutes, but the lack of talented depth at forward has to give general manager Tom Fitzgerald pause when considering trading the pick.
With the 10th Pick, the New Jersey Devils Select…
Before even considering what to do with the pick, Devils management must assemble their draft board and evaluate who is likely to be available in the tenth spot. Fitzgerald leans heavily on the work done by Chief Scout Mark Dennehy and his staff when making the draft board. In a draft where there are so many players who could be considered at the tenth pick, Dennehy’s evaluations will be key to determining if the Devils should stay and make their pick.
Historically, the success of the tenth pick has been a mixed bag. It was the launching point of players like Teemu Selanne, Mikko Rantanen, Bobby Holik, Owen Tippett, and Evan Bouchard, but also brought gaffes like selecting Luc Bourdon instead of Anze Kopitar. Like any pick outside the top five, it is fraught with uncertainty.
The Hockey Writers has extensive draft coverage, including several mock drafts that will continue through the actual draft. To further demonstrate the uncertainty and instability around the ten spot, in three recent mock drafts conducted by our writers, each has the Devils picking a different player. The three players, Michael Brandsegg-Nygård, Cole Eiserman, and Berkly Catton, are all skilled forwards with vastly different resumes and strengths. The diversity of talent should give the Devils a chance to focus on certain attributes and zero in on particular players.
The most recent mock draft conducted by NHL.com has the Devils selecting yet another forward in Konsta Helenius or Catton. Further evidence of the draft uncertainty and depth is the current prospect rankings have Brandsegg-Nygård tenth but Cayden Lindstrom ninth, and then defensemen for the next few slots on the list. TSN’s Craig Button has the Devils taking University of Denver defenseman Zeev Buium with the tenth pick. Such uncertainty throughout the draft community should give Fitzgerald pause, and he must consider who might be available, what could he get in a trade, and when should he pull the trigger on the trade to maximize value.
Devils’ Consequential Offseason Decisions
There are distinct needs the Devils must address before new head coach Sheldon Keefe kicks off his first training camp in September. Chief among them is finding an elite goaltender, bolstering a leaky defense, and making their forward group more difficult to play against. To accomplish these goals, Fitzgerald must look outside the organization for answers.
He can likely fill defense and some of his forward needs through free agency, but he will have to make a trade to get a goaltender. There is reportedly fierce competition on the trade market for the top goalies, with as many as six teams looking to acquire an elite starter. As with any market, low supply and high demand will drive up prices. One of the competitive advantages the Devils have over others vying for a goalie is that top-ten pick. Whether flipping that asset for a goalie is a wise move is debatable, but it must be considered.
Last season, Fitzgerald sent his pick to the San Jose Sharks to acquire Timo Meier. With the Devils firmly ensconced in a playoff position, that pick was expected to be in the latter half, if not the third round, of the 2023 NHL Draft. This year, with a top-ten pick at his disposal, Fitzgerald has four options: take a player at 10, trade the pick ahead of the draft to acquire a goalie or skater, wait until the draft to see who is available and then move the pick for a player, or bundle the pick to move up or down the draft to get a particular player or additional draft capital. In assessing his choices, the Devils general manager has to have a feel for what players the pick may bring back on the trade market.
What Is the Devils’ Pick Worth?
It is extremely difficult to assess draft pick value, especially if it is traded for players and not other picks. The most recent trade of a top-ten pick for a player was when the Ottawa Senators dealt the seventh overall pick for Alex DeBrincat. If a player with multiple 40-goal seasons is worth the seventh pick, surely a team should be able to acquire a starting goaltender with a package featuring the tenth pick.
The Devils could also use the tenth pick to take big swings at skaters and save other assets like a 2025 first-round pick or former seventh-overall pick Alexander Holtz as the centerpiece of a goalie acquisition. While Brady Tkachuk has been rumored to be available (or not available depending on the day), the Devils could instead use the pick to acquire a player like Pavel Buchnevich, Lawson Crouse, Jacob Chychrun, Shea Theodore, Mitch Marner or even Trevor Zegras. The pick will have significant trade value, and the Devils must decide what makes the most sense for the organization.
Fitzgerald and his staff are coming off a season when injuries, inconsistency, and a lack of depth cost them a coach and a chance to compete in the playoffs. Viewing the team through that prism along with the decision to hire a coach primed to take the team to the next level, it appears the Devils are not willing to delay the present to improve the future.
None of the players who will be available when the Devils draft will make an impact before management must start re-signing their core. With that in mind, the Devils will need to find a way to maximize the value of the pick and either turn it into a goalie of Juuse Saros, Jacob Markstrom, or Linus Ullmark’s caliber, or a skater on par with DeBrincat. Either way, with four weeks to go until the draft, management has to move quickly.
