To be clear, the Montreal Canadiens far from averted disaster, amid reports Patrik Laine wouldn’t require surgery and would be out “just” 2-3 months. While that was effectively a best-case scenario based on how Laine’s preseason injury looked, the undeniable fact is the Habs are without a still-in-his-prime former-40-goal scorer past American Thanksgiving, which is considered the point at which the playoff picture tends to take shape.
Now, the playoffs aren’t exactly top of mind for most Canadiens fans. While a dramatic one-season turnaround relative to the team’s fifth-from-last finish in 2023-24 is theoretically possible, most acknowledge the team is far from legitimately contending (even if they were to beat the literal Vegas odds and make it). So, no harm, no foul?
Laine Prognosis of Little Comfort
Not exactly. Even though Laine reportedly won’t require surgery, no one should kid themselves. It’s a serious injury, and it would be infinitely more preferable to have Laine healthy than not. More to the point, this is a player with superstar potential who needs another setback in his professional career like the Canadiens need another preseason game at this point.
Please, just stop the bleeding, some way, somehow.
It’s not just Laine, obviously. It’s not even just Kirby Dach, on whose health the Canadiens’ fortunes arguably depended to a larger extent before Laine was even acquired, with the latter having flirted with (yet another) serious injury time and again this preseason. It’s more so David Reinbacher than anyone else, with the defensive prospect having injured own knee the same game as Laine. The prognosis was way worse though, which, again, considering 2-3 months equates to a half-season, is saying something significant.
Reinbacher out Long Term
Reinbacher is out for the entire season, for all intents and purposes. So, it should hardly be controversial to state the obvious: Reinbacher’s injury hits the Canadiens harder than the one Laine suffered. However, that assessment may raise some eyebrows seeing as Reinbacher would have been a long shot to make the team out of training camp, as a not-yet 20-year-old with a lot to learn and a few names above him on his right side on defense at this point: David Savard, Justin Barron and Logan Mailloux.
For some context, Savard is a pending unrestricted free agent who will likely be traded only by the trade deadline. Barron is exempt from waivers, making him a relative shoo-in for a roster spot. And Mailloux, while suffering from similar defensive shortcomings in his game as Barron, is coming off an all-star season in the American Hockey League in 2023-24.
Related: Canadiens Open Door for Mailloux to Make Habs After Trading Harris
All that to say, Reinbacher was logically destined for the AHL himself in 2024-25. It doesn’t take away from the hopes the Canadiens clearly have in him, having drafted him fifth overall in 2023 as a potential top-pairing stay-at-home stalwart (with some offensive, as-of-yet-untapped talent). Whether or not you like the team’s decision to draft a defensive defenseman so high with several high-end forward prospects still available, that doesn’t take away from how Reinbacher projects as more of an all-around, complete defenseman than any of the righties currently above him on the depth chart and maybe the perfect complement to someone like Lane Hutson on a hypothetical top pairing of the future.
So, the focus shouldn’t be on how Laine’s injury adversely impacts the team’s playoff chances in 2024-25. It should instead be on how Reinbacher’s injury adversely impacts the team’s future past that point, as he’ll be missing a season of development and there are no guarantees he comes back unscathed, as cold as it might be to look past his overall wellbeing.
Not a Competition Between Laine and Reinbacher
Ultimately, Laine’s acquisition received a great deal of fanfare this offseason. However, as he’s expected to hit unrestricted free agency two summers from now, it isn’t exactly a stretch to see him as a placeholder for the Canadiens’ most recent fifth-overall pick, Ivan Demidov, who similarly plays the wing, just in the Kontinental Hockey League currently.
Unless the Canadiens continue to play defenseman Kaiden Guhle on his off side on the right and he bucks the trend and shows significant developmental growth deployed that way, there isn’t anyone who can replace what everyone envisioned (a healthy) Reinbacher bringing to the table in even a worst-case scenario regarding his ultimate ceiling.
This obviously isn’t a competition. No one wants to see any Canadiens players get injured. And this argument ideally won’t be construed as a suggestion that Reinbacher’s health means more than Laine’s in a vacuum. It’s more so an argument that there were never any guarantees Laine would pan out with the Canadiens, making the trade a low-risk, high-reward situation, especially based on what they gave up to get him (not much). When you take a leap of faith drafting Reinbacher though, you’re arguably taking much more of a risk.
Reinbacher Injury a Case of Horrible Luck
In contrast, you’d ideally see the preseason as an absolutely zero-risk affair. Everyone knows better though, especially now. However, any suggestion the preseason calendar should be shortened so as to limit injuries in supposedly nothing games is seemingly looking past how everyone needs to tune up for the regular season, stars and prospects alike. The play by Toronto Maple Leafs defenseman Cedric Pare that led to Laine’s injury has been interpreted by many as malicious. Maybe it was, maybe it wasn’t.
However, there is no one suggesting the play by Marshall Rifai that led to Reinbacher’s injury was in the same stratosphere in terms of intent. From whichever angle you look at it, it just appeared to be dumb, horrible luck, in terms of how Reinbacher awkwardly landed. So, it could just as easily have happened in a regular season game without career minor leaguers supposedly looking to make a name for themselves in all the wrong ways, in other words. And, if that’s the case, there’s really no way to prevent it. It just amounts to one of those things the Canadiens and their fans need to overcome, but Reinbacher most of all.
Here’s hoping Reinbacher rebounds eventually and Laine’s rehabilitation is closer to the two-month mark than three. Neither of those two ideal outcomes will realistically lead to the Canadiens making the playoffs this coming season. However, it’s necessary to look past that right now. The playoffs are irrelevant, at least compared to the careers of the two young players in question. That’s not exactly going out on a limb admittedly. It may be misinterpreted, but the thesis here, that Reinbacher’s injury impacts the organization to a greater degree, despite him being less of an impact player, at least right now, isn’t either. It’s plain to see. That obviously doesn’t make it hurt any less, though.
