The 2024-25 NHL season is upon us, with regular-season games getting started tonight (Oct. 8). There will be plenty of storylines to follow once the puck drops, including which free-agent signings from the 2024 offseason could have the biggest impact on their new teams. Here are eight who have the most potential.
Jake Guentzel
The Tampa Bay Lightning made some sweeping changes this offseason, deciding to let franchise legend Steven Stamkos walk in free agency and replacing him with Jake Guentzel on a massive seven-year deal at an average annual value (AAV) of $9 million.
It’s hard to argue with general manager Julien BriseBois’ decision to swap Stamkos for Guentzel. The latter is five years younger and a much better five-on-five player at this point in their respective careers. This isn’t to say Stamkos is a power-play merchant, but 40 of his 81 points came on the man advantage last season. Chances are Guentzel will be able to contribute at a much more efficient rate at five-on-five while also helping the power play.
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The Lightning may not have the depth they used to, but a top line of Guentzel, Brayden Point and Nikita Kucherov is pretty terrifying. The team may be a bit vulnerable in the playoff race compared to years past, but expect Guentzel and his linemates to keep them highly competitive.
Steven Stamkos & Jonathan Marchessault
Speaking of Stamkos, he still has the potential to be an impact player for his new team, the Nashville Predators. The five-on-five decline is stark. Stamkos averaged just 1.82 points per 60 minutes at five-on-five last season, and his overall impacts at that game state are beginning to fall off.
I also don’t think Stamkos will put up the power-play scoring he did with the Lightning. That seems like a good case for not including him in this article, so why is he here? Even if Stamkos isn’t a 40-goal, 80-point scorer, you’d still bet on him to be a 30-goal, 60-plus-point player, which is still pretty impactful. His contract may not age well, but since we’re only focusing on the 2024-25 season, that’s something to worry about down the road.
The same arguments apply to Jonathan Marchessault, who the Predators also signed this offseason. His five-year contract probably won’t age well, and he likely won’t score 42 goals again as he did with the Vegas Golden Knights in 2023-24. He’s also shown some signs of decline at five-on-five, though to a lesser extent than Stamkos.
Still, Marchessault is probably a good bet for 25 to 30-ish goals and close to 55-60 points. That’s a pretty impactful player, and though I think the Predators are more or less the same 97-99 point team they were last season, he still has the potential to make a difference.
Viktor Arvidsson & Jeff Skinner
The Edmonton Oilers came oh so close to ending their and the nation of Canada’s Stanley Cup drought a season ago. They’re among the favorites — and perhaps the favorite, depending on where you look — to win this season. It was an interesting summer for them that included losing two potentially key depth players to offer sheets, but they made a couple of moves that should help them thrive in the regular season at a minimum.
The two most notable were the signings of Viktor Arvidsson and Jeff Skinner. Arvidsson has had trouble staying healthy, but he’s been an impactful player when in the lineup, averaging 27 goals and 63 points per 82 games over the last three seasons. There’s potential for that and more if he can stay healthy since he’ll likely be playing alongside one of Connor McDavid or Leon Draisaitl for most of the season.
The Buffalo Sabres may have bought out Skinner this summer, but that doesn’t mean he wasn’t productive for them. He’s averaged 32 goals and 67 points per 82 games over the last three seasons and has been one of the most efficient five-on-five goal-scorers in the NHL over that stretch, averaging 1.25 goals per 60 minutes. That’s a top-10 rate in the NHL for forwards with at least 1000 minutes logged at that game state.
Skinner’s defensive shortcomings are real and something Oilers coach Kris Knoblauch will have to try to shelter as best as he can. But the offensive potential should outweigh his defensive shortcomings, especially since he’ll also likely be playing alongside McDavid or Draisaitl for most of the season.
Brandon Montour
I don’t love the contract the Seattle Kraken handed out to Brandon Montour this offseason. But since we’re just focusing on the impact he could have for the 2024-25 season, he has the chance to make a difference for the Kraken on the back end.
Defense hasn’t been much of an issue for the Kraken since coming into the league three years ago. Montour will shore up their top four on defense, but I still don’t expect that to be an issue for the team. Where he should help is by adding some offense from the back end. Aside from Vince Dunn, the Kraken lack puck-moving defenders, and Montour certainly adds more puck-moving ability.
Montour posted a career-high 73 points during the 2022-23 season. That’s an outlier compared to his career norms, but he’s averaged 1.13 points per 60 at five-on-five, which is a solid rate for a defenseman. He’s also averaged 51 points and 203 shots on goal per 82 games over the last three seasons, and he’ll contribute at five-on-five and on the power play. That’s the type of dynamic threat the Kraken haven’t had much of since coming into the league.
Tyler Bertuzzi & Teuvo Teravainen
Are the Chicago Blackhawks going to be a playoff team this season? That seems highly unlikely, but they should be much better. Connor Bedard is another year older and will likely take a step forward in his development, but the Blackhawks made plenty of improvements this offseason, too.
Among the additions were Tyler Bertuzzi and Teuvo Teravainen, two wingers who should provide more support to Bedard in the top six. Bertuzzi has had trouble staying healthy, though he did play in 80 games last season. If he can hit that number again, 20-25 goals and 50-55 points might be where he finishes the season.
Teravainen might not shoot 17 percent again, but a 15-20 goal and 40-50 point season would also be a big boost for a Blackhawks squad deprived of offense from other than Bedard in 2023-24. If he can produce at those rates or better, the Blackhawks’ top six could give some teams fits this season, especially if Taylor Hall returns to form after a knee injury he suffered in 2023-24.
Elias Lindholm, Jake DeBrusk, and Tyler Toffoli are other free-agent signings from the 2024 offseason who could make a difference for their new teams. Lindholm’s numbers suggest he’s in decline, but perhaps centering David Pastrnak will rejuvenate him. Toffoli will likely play alongside Macklin Celebrini or Will Smith, while DeBrusk has 20-25 goal potential with the Canucks. Who knows how their contracts will age beyond this season, but at least for 2024-25, they could be impact players.
