The Columbus Blue Jackets continue another tough start to the NHL season. After a decent month of October in which the team sat in a wild card spot with a 5-4-1 record, they have absolutely plummeted in November. In six games, they’ve only secured one of a possible 12 standings points and allowed 29 goals against. That’s almost five goals against per game.
A tough question to answer over the last several seasons has been around the Blue Jackets’ leaky defense and goaltending. It’s something that’s been discussed ad nauseum. Are the team’s remarkable goals against statistics due to a lack of a structured defensive system, or is it a personnel issue – be it on defense or between the pipes? Let’s discuss.
Blue Jackets’ Defensive System & Sample Size
Blue Jackets’ new head coach Dean Evason was hired due to his work with the Minnesota Wild. In each of his three full seasons leading Minnesota, he led them to the playoffs as a surprise team. They never had an abundance of high-end skill and were significantly handicapped from a salary cap perspective, but he found a way to get more than the sum of parts out of his team. Part of the reason was his commitment to structured defense and blue-collar, hard-working approach to getting things done.
We’ve seen glimpses of that approach executed from the Blue Jackets early this season. It’s manifested in the team playing in far more competitive games than previous seasons. We’ve seen it in the timely goals scored from unlikely players like Mathieu Olivier and Zach Aston-Reese. However, this new normal for the team hasn’t fully taken hold – hence the losing record.
A new system to a hockey team takes time to implement. We saw this clearly with the Winnipeg Jets when Rick Bowness took over as their head coach. In the first season under his tutelage, the team made the playoffs by the skin of their teeth as the last seed in the Western Conference. The second season is where they really came together fully understanding the expectations from day one, and they had a huge bump to the fourth best team in the NHL. This season they’ve continued that success to become the best team in hockey following similar systems, with new head coach Scott Arniel who took over after being an associate coach under Bowness.
Related: CBJ Union Junction Podcast: Blue Jackets’ Losing Streak, Jiricek Drama & More
All of that is to say that 15 games in, the Blue Jackets haven’t laced the skates enough times to fully be able to tell if the defensive system has improved that much. In our most recent Union Junction Podcast, my colleague Mark Scheig posits that we’ll have a better idea in another 15 games or beyond to the halfway point of the season.
Blue Jackets’ Goalie and Defense Personnel
While we don’t quite have the sample size to determine if Evason’s new system is making enough of a dent on the team’s overall defensive play, the returns are not favorable when looking at the state of the goaltending. Of the goalies who have played at least five games in the NHL this season, Elvis Merzlikins‘ .896 save percentage (SV%) ranks 36th and Daniil Tarasov’s .865 SV% ranks 50th. Certainly not the start to the season that Columbus was hoping for from their netminders.
Despite being an Achilles heel to the team, the Blue Jackets’ goaltending has been relatively gridlocked. Merzlikins, the incumbent starter, and Daniil Tarasov, the touted goalie of the future. The question that needs to be asked here is that since Tarasov was brought into the organization by the previous Jarmo Kekalainen-led regime, is current general manager Don Waddell quite as enthusiastic that Tarasov is the goalie of the future? If not, that would be a possible trade chip to make a change in the crease to try to improve things – especially considering the difficulty in moving Merzlikins’ mammoth contract.
It should be noted that at the end of October, Merzlikins looked like as electric as he did when he burst on the NHL scene in 2020. In his games against the New York Islanders and the Edmonton Oilers he looked rejuvenated and as if he still could be an impact player. Those games showed promise to the hopes that a strong defensive system could return him to being an above average NHL starter.
On defense, not many of their current lineup are particularly well renowned for defensive play. Zach Werenski, Ivan Provorov, and Damon Severson have their moments defensively, but are mostly lauded for their offensive and puck moving ability. None are keeping opposing players up at night in fear of going into the corners with them the next night. David Jiricek is still young and working on his defensive deficiencies. Jack Johnson is in the twilight of his career and while effective in a limited role is a far cry from the player he was during his first stint in the Buckeye State.
The most punishing defensive player, Erik Gudbranson, is out of the lineup for a significant amount of time following a collision with his teammate Sean Monahan. Filling in as lead defensive stalwart in the interim is fresh faced waiver pickup Dante Fabbro. He spent the early part of his career occasionally partnered with Norris Trophy winner Roman Josi on the Nashville Predators. Despite falling out of favor in Tennessee, Fabbro is still young, 26, and it is well within the realm of possibilities that he’s able to meet or exceed his previous ceiling. His defensive-first play style complements that of Werenski and Provorov, which should add some form of stability to the back end overall.
As of right now, the jury is still out on if the team’s woes are personnel or systems-related. Once the sample size with a new head coach grows and a structured defensive system is able to be put in place, we’ll get a true test of if the goalies simply need to be better. What is promising is that now with Evason leading the way, a system is on its way so the team will get a more definitive answer one way or the other soon enough.
