At one point, many were curious why the Detroit Red Wings had so many goalies in their system. We now know why.
Injuries to Cam Talbot and Alex Lyon have resulted in Ville Husso and Sebastian Cossa serving as Detroit’s current goaltending tandem, with Jack Campbell and Carter Gylander holding down the fort in Grand Rapids.
Husso is expected to start Tuesday in Boston. Anything beyond that is up in the air according to head coach Derek Lalonde.
Related: Red Wings Top 25 Prospects
With Detroit’s top goaltending prospect now up with the big league club, many are now wondering when/if he’ll see game action. Fans are also wondering what’s best for him given the current state of the team. Given this, I wanted to evaluate Detroit’s options and see what made the most sense.
Outcomes of the Red Wings Starting Cossa
To determine whether or not the Red Wings should give Cossa a start, I employed a scenario planning exercise. With this, we can look at the possible outcomes, weigh their impacts, and form an educated opinion on what should be done. Let’s dive in.
Red Wings Do/Don’t Start Cossa
The first part of this scenario planning exercise is splitting Detroit’s decision on whether to start Cossa while he’s up with the team.
If they do, then we move on to the next outcome split. If not, then the point is moot. No harm, no foul – either Lyon or Talbot are healthy or Husso starts again.
Outcomes:
- Red Wings start Cossa
- Red Wings don’t start Cossa and he’s reassigned to Grand Rapids when a goalie is healthy
Cossa Plays Well/Doesn’t Play Well
Next up, we’ll look at how Cossa could perform in the event that he starts a game. This is independent of the Red Wings winning/playing well. A goalie can look bad and win, and look great and lose.
To determine this, we’d look at how Cossa tracked the puck, if he kept pace with the speed of the game well, if he stayed square, if he controlled his rebounds appropriately, and if he managed the crease well. Also by the quality of the goals that went in, not the total number.
If Cossa plays well, then that’s great – Detroit’s top goalie prospect looked the part of an NHLer. It could also mean another start for the young netminder.
On the other hand, if Cossa doesn’t play well, then he has motivation to grow his game further. From everything I’ve heard, Cossa is an extremely confident goalie and not one to back down from a challenge. Plus, this same scenario happened during his first professional season in 2022-23 – Cossa got a taste of action in Grand Rapids, got lit up, and proceeded to go on a tear with the Toledo Walleye thereafter. One bad game is not going to ruin this kid.
Outcomes:
- Cossa plays well and makes case for another start
- Cossa doesn’t play well and is motivated to be better
Red Wings Play Well/Don’t Play Well
The last component of this scenario planning exercise is the team’s output. How the Red Wings perform should be factored in.
Giving a goalie their first NHL start can be a north star for teams. How many times have we seen the Red Wings get beaten by a rookie goalie in their first start? The team is motivated to do right by the rookie and the goalie is motivated to earn another start.
If the Red Wings and Cossa perform well, then the organization should give him another start. Something worked with that combo.
If the Red Wings perform well and Cossa does not, then it’s the same as Cossa not performing well in the section above. He goes back to Grand Rapids and is motivated to prove his doubters wrong.
Alternatively, the Red Wings could perform poorly in front of an outstanding Cossa. In that case, the takeaway is that Cossa passed the test, and the Red Wings should give him another opportunity down the road when he might get more support. This scenario will not diminish his confidence and serves as validation that Detroit’s player development efforts and Cossa’s hard work are paying off.
And finally, if both the Red Wings and Cossa perform poorly, then it’s the same outcome as above. It’s motivation for the netminder to improve, plus the caveat that he didn’t get much help, and that you can only do so much in that scenario. Again, not something that negatively impacts Cossa, at least in my opinion.
Outcomes:
- Red Wings and Cossa play well; the netminder gets another start
- Red Wings play well but Cossa does not; Cossa goes back to Grand Rapids motivated to improve
- Cossa plays well but the Red Wings do not; Cossa goes back to Grand Rapids validated that he’s an NHL-quality goalie
- Neither the Red Wings or Cossa play well; Cossa is motivated to get even better
Final Word
When considering the various outcomes and the probabilities for each, it’s my opinion that the Red Wings should give Cossa a start while Lyon and Talbot are injured. It’s a good test for the netminder that could bolster his confidence, empower him to improve, or both.
You may have a different opinion. That’s perfectly fine. Mine is just that – an opinion based on the logic above. Only Steve Yzerman, Sebastian Cossa, and his coaches actually know what’s best for him. And we’ll see in the near future what exactly that is.
