This is going to be tougher than initially thought for the Montreal Canadiens. The Canadiens temporarily found themselves in a wild-card spot on Jan. 6, after having gone 8-2 since Dec. 16, at which point they had literally been in last place in the entire Eastern Conference.
Since that point, the Habs have gone a fairly impressive 3-1-1 and they’ve actually lost ground, having fallen two points out, as of their latest game, a disappointing 7-3 loss to the rival Toronto Maple Leafs on Jan. 18. The moral of this story? It’s significantly harder to permanently pass playoff-calibre teams in the standings.
Speaking of stories, in Greek mythology, Heracles (Hercules) carried out a series of originally 10 (but eventually 12) nigh-impossible challenges to redeem himself after killing his wife and child in a fit of madness (plot points which failed to make the Disney movie). The Canadiens themselves face a series of obstacles in the way of a spot in the 2025 Stanley Cup Playoffs. Stretching the definition of “Herculean” with a little understanding on the part of readers, you may possibly consider the following 10 obstacles the Habs’ own labours:
10. 17 Straight Games in a Different Arena
The loss to the Maple Leafs was undeniably horrible. However, it actually marked the end of an incredibly impressive stretch that coincidentally began on Dec. 12, bookended by a separate humiliating defeat, 9-2 to the visiting Pittsburgh Penguins at the Bell Centre.
Starting at that point, the Canadiens went on the road only to immediate come back for one game, rinse and repeat. Altogether, including their annual holiday road trip, the Habs never played consecutive games in the same arena for 17 total games (10-5-2). They went 7-2-1 on the road and a surprising 3-3-1 at home, which only serves to prove the friendly confines of the Bell Centre don’t mean a whole lot when you don’t have time to catch your breath and take advantage of the comforts of playing where they’re actually a decent 11-8-3.
9. 7 Remaining Back-to-Backs
After the loss to the Maple Leafs, the Canadiens finally get to stay at home. They don’t have much time to rest though, as they play the New York Rangers on Jan. 19 (the next night).
Thankfully, the Canadiens have already rectified their lack of trust in their backup, by demoting Cayden Primeau; 4.70 goals-against average and .836 save percentage) and replacing him with Jakub Dobes (0.98 GAA, .963 SV%). However, that’s not even half the battle. It’s more so just an internal battle that they’ve won.
The Canadiens still have to go out and beat their opponents, with Dobes set to get at least seven more games the rest of the way (emphasis on “at least” as his development as the Habs’ potential goalie of the future is at risk). That’s because the Habs have six additional sets of back-to-back games this season, as they must realistically begin to worry about starter Sam Montembeault’s fatigue level, seeing as he’s never played more than 41 games in any one professional season before. He’s now at 35 with three months to go.
8. Winnipeg Jets
What’s been so impressive about the Canadiens’ recent playoff push is how they’ve beaten top teams: the Florida Panthers, Tampa Bay Lightning, Vegas Golden Knights, Colorado Avalanche, Washington Capitals and Dallas Stars. They may have lost in embarrassing fashion to the Leafs, having given up a three-goal first-period deficit, but they have a chance to redeem themselves in a few weeks, when they host the Winnipeg Jets on Jan. 28.
The Jets are currently the top team in the Western Conference. And, after having lost to them 4-2 on Dec. 14, technically after they started stringing wins together at the start of December, the Canadiens have another chance to prove they’re a changed team for the better. They represent the Habs’ biggest single-game test in the foreseeable future, and, with a full two days’ rest ahead of the contest (one for the Jets), they’ll have no excuses. They (and their fans) will be able to see how they stack up against yet another top team.
7. West Coast Road Trip
From Feb. 2-5, the Canadiens aren’t just on the road. They’re on the road out West, on a trip that historically hasn’t been kind to them. They first face the Anaheim Ducks, against whom they’ve got an all-time 8-11-0-1 road record. They then take on the San Jose Sharks (7-12-2-2) and Los Angeles Kings (42-25-9-1) in a set of back-to-back games.
History may say the Canadiens are likelier to at least win against the Kings. However, they haven’t beaten the Kings since Nov. 9, 2019 (a span of straight seven losses) and that was at home. You’d have to go back to March 5, 2019 for their last road victory against the Kings, a 3-1 win. On that road trip, the Habs then proceeded to lose to the Sharks and Ducks (in back-to-back games) by a combined 13-4 score. So, yeah.
6. 4 Nations Face-Off
On paper, the upcoming 4 Nations Face-Off tournament is a G-dsend, in that it affords the Canadiens 12 days off. However, for a team that is finally (relatively) healthy after literally years of having set man-games-lost records and effectively firing on all cylinders right now, it can end up backfiring.
The loss to the Maple Leafs is obviously a setback. However, no one should have expected the Canadiens to run roughshod over the entire NHL the rest of the way, especially not every elite team they’ll face. If the Canadiens continue to play .600 hockey (or better), like they have up to the tournament (11 games), they’ll be putting themselves in position to make the playoffs. However, then they’ll take a massive step back, having clearly peaked, and then have to rekindle the chemistry that has made them such formidable opponents recently.
5. Staying Healthy
On top of that, the Canadiens will have to hope none of their participating players get injured in the tournament. Montembeault will represent Canada, Patrik Laine and Joel Armia Finland. While the tournament is replacing the All-Star Game, there is a lot more on the line here to the point you can’t count on players simply going through the motions, as you might normally expect in a nothing showcase of the league’s best players.
There is national pride at stake, and, taking Armia as an example, it’s not just star players. There are checkers playing in the tournament too. And, in Armia’s case specifically, players on expiring deals who are eager to leave a positive lasting impression in the minds of prospective employers in the form of 32 total NHL general managers, each of whom will most probably be watching the action closely.
And that’s just with regard to the tournament. Everyone now knows what the Canadiens are capable of when healthy, staying competitive against top teams in the NHL, if they’re not one themselves. This run of theirs didn’t start with Laine’s Dec. 3 debut by pure coincidence. Obviously, Laine’s not the only reason the Habs have been playing well. The debuts of Dobes and Alexandre Carrier also spring to mind as factors. However, there’s no disputing his 11 goals (14 points) in 17 games have contributed to the team’s success in that span.
In effect, the Canadiens acquired a game-breaking talent. That’s what they’re getting. And, with Emil Heineman now out, the Habs can ill afford to lose anyone else. Fans have witnessed firsthand the degree to which injuries can ravage this lineup and how they can adversely impact on-ice performance. It wouldn’t be pretty, especially for a team that is still out of the playoff picture and call fall out of the race altogether with a single bad week.
4. A Month Without Emil Heineman
Even though Heineman is a bottom-six forward, who has only played fourth-line minutes, he will obviously be missed as he recuperates after having tragically been hit by a car. Thankfully, the injury itself isn’t serious (relatively speaking) and Heineman should only be out 3-4 weeks.
Nevertheless, losing a player the Canadiens have come to lean on heavily, even in a depth role, will have a domino effect, if they’re not quick to find a reliable replacement. True, Heineman has only played 11:09 per game. Michael Pezzetta has only gotten 5:38 per game instead.
Since Heineman’s injury, Pezzetta, who had been a recurring healthy scratch all season, has routinely played less than four minutes, getting benched time and again by head coach Martin St. Louis. The “tactic” has arguably put the team at a greater disadvantage, having to go with 11 forwards a few shifts after puck drop. If the Canadiens don’t figure something out soon, they’ll likely drop further out of the playoff race.
3. Trade Deadline
That’s what makes the upcoming March 7 trade deadline so critical for GM Kent Hughes. He doesn’t just have to make great trades from an asset-management perspective, which had been the standard for success the last few seasons, during the early stages of the rebuild. Now he has to take the team’s immediate performance into account, considering, at this current stage, a playoff spot has emerged as a quasi-realistic possibility.
Related: Canadiens Address Need to Move Allen at Successful 2024 Trade Deadline
You can almost envision Hughes pissing off people regardless of what he does at the deadline. In the eyes of some, he can end up being way too bullish on making the playoffs, sacrificing potential key pieces in the future simply to help secure a berth that could easily lead to a quick first-round exit. Alternatively, whatever moves he makes could end up being seen as not enough to appease a playoff-hungry fanbase that has suffered through a last-place 2021-22 season and two additional losing campaigns after that. Good luck with that.
2. Staying out of the Box
Not only do the Canadiens have the sixth-most amount of penalties in minutes (453). They also have the third-worst penalty differential at -20. Only the free-falling New York Rangers (-22) and last-place Chicago Blackhawks (-24) are worse.
Needless to say, taking penalties is something they should avoid, even with a decent 10th-ranked penalty-killing unit (81.7%) and fourth-best five shorthanded goals so far. The number they should be focusing on is the 29 goals they’ve given up on the man disadvantage. That’s 21st-best in the league.
1. More Regulation Wins
Something to also keep in mind? Simply winning isn’t necessarily going to be enough. The first tie-breaker is regulation wins. So, not only do the Canadiens have to catch up to the likes of the wild-card Columbus Blue Jackets and Ottawa Senators. They have to ensure they either get more points than them or earn more regulation wins, when they have 16 to their 17 (each).
Remember, the Detroit Red Wings infamously tied the Washington Capitals, who snuck into the playoffs last season as the second wild-card team with 91 points. Despite doing what they “had to” by beating the Canadiens in their home-and-home series to end the 2023-24 season, in dramatic fashion no less, with 5-4 overtime and shootout victories, the Wings still fell short, with the Capitals having had more regulation wins (32-27)
The fact the Red Wings could have won each of those games against the Canadiens in regulation only to still fall short is a stark reminder that you can’t make the playoffs in October, but you can miss them. This past October, the Habs went 4-6-1. And, while they’ve been impressive recently, having gone 14-6-1, five of those wins were either in overtime or via shootout.
So, long story short, the Canadiens don’t need to simply be better than their opponents in this race. As good as the Canadiens have been, they need to be even better, which is no small feat.
