Here we go again…For the fourth straight season, the Los Angeles Kings will be met with the Edmonton Oilers in the first round of the Stanley Cup Playoffs. At this point, the three things that are for certain in life are death, taxes, and the Kings/Oilers in Round 1. After winning the Stanley Cup in 2014, the Kings have yet to make it past the first round, and for the past three seasons, it’s been the Oilers who have sent them packing, in one less game each year.
In 2022, the Oilers squeaked by the Kings in seven games. In 2023, the Oilers beat the Kings in six games, and last season they did it in five. If we follow the pattern, it means that this is the year the Oilers sweep the Kings, right? At least that’s what a lot of Oilers Twitter will try and tell you. I’m here to tell you that’s simply not the case. Forget about the Oilers sweeping the Kings, and that this is the year the Kings slay their demons, send Edmonton home, and make it to the second round for the first time in 11 years.
This is the best the Kings have looked over the past four seasons, from their roster construction/improvements, the way everyone seems to be bought in to the systems, and their ability to win games in different ways. Not only has this group shown that they have what it takes to find success in the postseason, but what builds up more motivation than having yet another chance to finally beat the team that has ended their season for three years straight? Nothing, and you can bet that the Kings are going into this series frothing at the mouth with the opportunity to get the job done this time.
There are multiple reasons and factors on both sides as to why this is the year the Kings will get past the Oilers. Now, by no means does that mean that this series will be a walk in the park for the Kings; it’s almost guaranteed to be a battle every time you go up against the likes of Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl, even if they aren’t 100% healthy.
Home-Ice Advantage
In each of the past three seasons, the Oilers have finished ahead of the Kings and have had home-ice advantage in all three of the previous first-round matchups. Not anymore, for the first time in four seasons, the script has been flipped, and the Kings have finished second in the Pacific Division, giving them home-ice advantage in Round 1.
Home ice is an advantage for a few reasons. Teams get to control their matchups by having the last change, they get to play in front of their home fans, and overall, teams are much more comfortable in their own city and barn. That being said, having home ice doesn’t hold a ton of weight when it comes to the playoffs. Normally, a team having home ice wouldn’t influence my opinion too much, but the 2024-25 Kings are an exception just because of how dominant they have been playing at Crypto.com Arena. The Kings have a record of 31-6-4 at home this season and set a franchise record for most home wins in a season. They also, at one point in the season, had a 15-game point streak at home. The Kings are the best team in the league by far when it comes to playing at home, and if any team could prove the importance or take advantage of having home ice in the playoffs, it would be the Kings.
Roster Construction/Performance
Don’t let anyone tell you that this is the same old Kings team and that there is nothing different about this year’s group, because frankly, they are just plain wrong. This is the deepest Kings team since 2014, and while they can’t combat the superstar talent the Oilers have, their forward depth, defensive group, and goaltending are all stronger. For the first time in the past four years, the Kings finally have the center depth they have been lacking in the past. Everyone thought that the addition of Pierre-Luc Dubois last season gave the Kings that solid depth down the middle, but as everyone knows, that experiment didn’t turn out as expected. The Kings have that center depth this season, and it’s been thanks to the emergence of Quinton Byfield, who moved back to his natural position this season.
Now with Anze Kopitar, Phillip Danault, and Byfield, the Kings have three centers who can play a shutdown role or provide offense, especially with how well the top three line combinations have looked together. This is particularly important when thinking about line matchups and who is going to be on the ice against McDavid or Draisaitl. Most likely, it would be either Kopitar or Danault’s line out there against the Oilers’ big guns, which could potentially leave the dynamic duo of Byfield and Kevin Fiala to take advantage of a beneficial line matchup and go to work in the offensive zone. The beauty of the Kings’ forward lines is that all three are interchangeable. All three of the top lines have proved their ability to score and defend.
Byfield’s line with Fiala and Alex Laferriere has outscored their opponents 20-6 (GF% of 76.9%). Kopitar’s line with Adrian Kempe and Andrei Kuzmenko has outscored their opponents 16-5 (GF% of 76.2%). Danault’s line with Trevor Moore and Warren Foegele has outscored their opponents 21-8 (GF% of 72.4%). The Oilers only have one line combination that compares when looking at the goal differential at 5-on-5, and who could have guessed it’s when McDavid and Draisaitl are on the ice together. The trio of McDavid, Draisaitl, and Zach Hyman has outscored their opponents 26-7. That is the only line combination that is even remotely near the Kings’ top three lines, every other Oilers line combination has a GF% of 50% or below.
Against a very stingy team like the Kings, who don’t give up much to begin with and will focus on the defensive side of things first, you can bet the Oilers are going to get frustrated very quickly with the lack of chances they will be able to generate, and it won’t be long until they throw that line of McDavid, Draisaitl, and Hyman together. It’s been a known fact that when the Oilers are struggling to create, both of their superstars play on the same line. There’s no doubt that those three are going to cause significant trouble for the Kings. That line is where most of the Oilers’ offense is going to come from, but it’s also going to leave two of the Kings’ top three lines with favorable matchups. At 5-on-5, the Kings have three dominant lines, while the Oilers have only one.
Another one of the key “playoff elements” the Kings didn’t have enough of last season was physicality. The additions of Tanner Jeannot and Joel Edmundson have given the Kings more of a physical presence, which will undoubtedly be a crucial part in winning this series. The Oilers aren’t afraid to throw the body around and deliver cheap shots, as we saw when these two teams met last Monday, when Darnell Nurse gave a gutless check to the back of Byfield’s head after the whistle blew. The Kings were without both Jeannot and Edmundson that night, two guys who could have responded to that play and will respond to any plays like that in the future. Jeff Malott and Samuel Helenius are two other big bodies that won’t be afraid to reciprocate any physicality.
The Kings are getting more production from more guys than they have in the past as well. The Kings only had one 30-plus goal scorer last season (Moore had 31). This season, both Kempe and Fiala potted 35 (career-high for Fiala). Byfield, who struggled immensely at the start of the season with production, shot out of a cannon in the latter half of the season with 31 points in his last 31 games. Laferriere has stepped up, doubling his production levels from last season, Foegele came in and has been a pleasant surprise setting a career high in goals and points, and it would be a crime not to mention the impact Kuzmenko has had on this team’s offensive game since joining the club at the trade deadline. Kuzmenko, who went pointless in his first seven games as a King, went on to collect five goals and 17 points through the next 15 games. He has brought another layer to the Kings’ offensive game that was well-needed, along with being a key part in the improvement of the power play.
Special teams have played a significant part in the Kings vs Oilers matchup in all three seasons. The Oilers do their most damage on the power play, and it’s incredibly difficult to keep the puck out of the net against their top unit. The only ways to somewhat combat the Oilers’ power play are to, one, not take a lot of penalties, and two, make sure your power play is capitalizing as well. The Kings’ power play has been pretty atrocious for the most part this season, and it’s the fifth-worst in the league. That being said, since the deadline and the acquisition of Kuzmenko, it has been clicking at about 24% and has been getting better and better as the games go by. The Kings only scored more than one power-play goal in a game once before Kuzmenko joined the team. Since his arrival, they have scored multiple power-play goals in a game four times. It’s the one area you could confidently say they have been terrible in for a majority of the season, but heading into the playoffs, it’s looking like it can do some damage.
One of the Hottest Teams Heading Into the Playoffs
Speaking of how much the power play has improved since the deadline, the Kings have been one of the hottest teams in the league in general since March 7. They have the second-best record of 17-5-0 (the most amount of wins), and the best part is that we have seen an increase in offensive production. The Kings are built for playoff hockey in the sense that they are comfortable grinding out low-scoring, tight-checking games. Their identity is built on defense, and they have given up the second-fewest amount of shots and goals at 5-on-5; they have the highest goal differential, and their penalty kill is operating at 81.4%.
Most of the time, the Kings aren’t winning games due to their offense, so for them to have that high of a goal differential speaks to just how responsible they are defensively and how hard it is to score goals against them. However, when they are scoring goals, it’s not a pretty sight for the opposition, and recently, the increase in offensive production has just added another page to the book of ways this team can win games.
Every time the Kings have scored three or more goals in a game, they haven’t lost in regulation. They don’t need multiple goals in a game to find success, but when they are scoring, a win is almost certain. Goal scoring didn’t come easily for the Kings in the first half of the season, but since the deadline, they have scored the most goals out of any other team in the NHL, with 81, and they have scored three or more goals in 15 of the 22 games they have played. What’s even more impressive is the fact that the Kings haven’t sacrificed any of their defensive game for this increased offensive production. Since the deadline, they have also allowed the fewest goals out of any other team, with 39 (minus the last game of the season, where a lot of regulars didn’t play), also giving them the highest goal differential in the league at 41. The Kings’ offense is blooming at the right time, along with everything else that has been clicking all season, and their record shows just how dangerous they have been. They are playing their best hockey right now and should be carrying loads of momentum heading into Game 1.
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What the Kings have done individually is already threatening, but when you compare the Oilers’ numbers in the same categories, it looks even better for LA. For a team that relies on offense and outscoring its other deficiencies, the Oilers haven’t done a great job of that. Somehow, they have scored fewer goals than the Kings, and their goals against are significantly higher, too. 171 is the number of goals the Oilers have allowed this season at 5-on-5 to the Kings’ 125. Their goal differential is in the negatives, and in the same vicinity as teams like the Vancouver Canucks, Anaheim Ducks, and Calgary Flames, three non-playoff teams.
Combining these struggles with the fact that the Oilers are up against the stingiest team in the league and finding ways to score goals is going to be harder than it is against most teams, plus no one in the pipes that has proven their reliability, this just seems like the perfect storm for the Kings.
Kuemper vs. Skinner/Pickard…It’s Not Close
Goaltending has always been a major issue for the Oilers and something they never feel the need to improve on heading into the playoffs. If it wasn’t for their ability to outscore their defensive and goaltending issues, year after year, they probably would have done something about it by now. Stuart Skinner is not the answer in net for the Oilers and did not have too great of a season. Through 51 games, he had a save percentage (SV%) of .896 and a goals-against average (GAA) of 2.81. Not only have his numbers not been great, but he’s been dealing with injuries. The other option is Calvin Pickard, a true backup goaltender who has two playoff starts to his name. Regardless of who the Oilers opt to go with, neither of them should give the Kings any trouble whatsoever.
The Kings haven’t had a true number one goaltender and a solid presence in the pipes since 2022, back when franchise legend Jonathan Quick was still playing for them. He played a big part in the Kings’ ability to stretch that series against the Oilers in 2022 to seven games. Since then, the Kings have struggled in the goaltending department. Neither Joonas Korpisalo, Pheonix Copley, David Rittich, nor Cam Talbot was the answer.
As awful as the Dubois trade was for the Kings, it did end up bringing back Darcy Kuemper to Los Angeles, and what an impact he has made for this group. They finally have a goaltender who can make a difference and be relied upon to bail them out when needed. It’s not often that they have major defensive relapses, but when they have, this season, Kuemper has been there pretty much every time, saving the day and making sure the game doesn’t get out of hand. It’s early in games where he is the most noticeable. When the Kings have tough starts and take a while to find their game, he is keeping games either scoreless or within reach until they get going. Through 50 games, Kuemper has a SV% of .922 (third best), a GAA of 2.02 (second best), and is tied for the fourth most shutouts with five. He has put up Vezina-caliber numbers and blows both Skinner and Pickard out of the water.
It’s no secret how important goaltending is in the playoffs, and Kuemper is the exact thing the Kings have been missing in the past. He is their X-factor, a Stanley Cup winner, and all signs are pointing toward a dominant performance from him in the playoffs.
Oilers Aren’t the Same Team and Have Problems of Their Own
No matter how many areas the Kings seem to be better than the Oilers this season, they don’t have a McDavid or a Draisaitl. The problem is that both have suffered through injuries as of late, and you can bet that neither of them is heading into the playoffs at 100%. Draisaitl hasn’t played since April 3 either. The biggest loss for the Oilers is defenseman Mattias Ekholm, who has been ruled out for at least the first round. With an already shaky defensive group, his absence leaves a pretty big hole in the Edmonton D-core. He is their best shutdown defenseman who also can contribute offensively, and no other Oilers defenseman brings that same kind of impact.
The only player the Kings could be missing come Game 1 is Jeannot, and even if he does, it would be shocking to see him miss the entire series. While his absence would leave a void in the Kings’ physical presence, in no way, shape, or form is it comparable to what the Oilers are dealing with.
For the last number of games before the season ended, the Oilers had a bunch of players who were dealing with minor injuries or were sitting out at some point. Hyman, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Jake Walman, and Trent Frederic, along with McDavid, Draisaitl, and Skinner, all missed some time. The point here is that, unlike the Kings, the Oilers haven’t had the chance to string games together with their full lineup heading into the playoffs and iron out any kinks. Not detrimental, but also not an ideal situation to have, considering the way the Kings played to end their season. One team is heading into the series feeling very confident about their game, while the other is just glad to have their players back.
Many Oilers have taken steps back this season as well. This is not the same team that went to the Stanley Cup Final. Injuries haven’t helped, but McDavid hasn’t looked nearly as dominant as he has in the last few years. His points-per-game (P/G) this season are at 1.49. To put it in perspective, he hasn’t had a P/G of lower than 1.52 since 2019, his fourth season in the NHL. Hyman went from being a 50-plus goal scorer last season to only scoring 27 this season in only seven fewer games. Nugent-Hopkins and Evan Bouchard have also seen their production levels drop.
A couple of Oilers who provided some solid secondary scoring last season are either not there or have been hurt. Foegele, who was with the Oilers last season, had 41 points, and Evander Kane, who hasn’t played a game this season, had 44 points. The players who have essentially replaced those two have been Viktor Arvidsson, who only had 27 points, and Jeff Skinner, who recorded 29 points. Not to mention the loss of both Dylan Holloway and Phillip Broberg, who have blossomed with the St. Louis Blues this season. The only high-profile Oiler to increase their production was Draisaitl, who went on a tear this season, scoring 52 goals (the most in the NHL) and finishing with 106 points.
All this being said, even at less than 100% and lower production levels from multiple players than in previous seasons, playoffs are a different beast, and McDavid and Draisaitl have proven their ability to take a series over, which is the one thing that the Kings need to worry about.
Even if the Oilers were coming into this series completely healthy, I’d still give the Kings the slight edge, but considering all of the different factors and how everything is shaping up, it’s hard to imagine them not being able to make the second round as long as they don’t go into this series allowing the past to hold any weight.
With the Kings having home ice, more offensive depth, one of the best defensive groups in the league, Kuemper, and the Oilers dealing with injuries along with very questionable goaltending, there is only one thing left to say:
Kings in six.
