Every season, we try to get beneath the Toronto Maple Leafs’ surface-level numbers and figure out who’s really driving this team. Analyzing the team using goals for and against gives us one insight into what’s going on. They tell you what happened, but they don’t always tell you why it happened. And when a team’s goaltending swings up and down the way Toronto’s has this season, the picture can get pretty fuzzy.
So this time around, we decided to take a different angle. We went back through the five-on-five, power-play, and penalty-kill minutes and ranked the forwards using two stats we trust a little more when judging how a player is truly impacting a game: expected goals and high-danger scoring chances.
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These aren’t exotic numbers. Expected goals weigh the quality of the chances generated while a player is on the ice. High-danger chances are precisely what they sound like — the moments where a goal should be scored unless the goalie steals it.
No stat is perfect. But these two together give you a sense of which players are actually creating the kinds of looks that win games — and which ones look good on paper only because somebody behind them bailed them out.
Here’s what we found.
Looking at How Good Easton Cowan Has Been for the Maple Leafs
It’s worth starting with a brief look at how well Easton Cowan has played for the team. He’s the one forward whose numbers jump off the page no matter how you slice them. At even strength, he ranks third among all Maple Leafs forwards in expected goals (plus-3.10), a sign that he’s consistently helping create the kinds of chances that should lead to goals.
But it’s the high-danger chances that really separate him. Cowan sits second on the team at plus-16 — and first by percentage at an impressive 64.8%. Nothing about that is inflated by minutes with stars or sheltered usage. He’s simply putting himself in prime scoring areas and driving play in ways veterans take years to figure out.
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For a youngster, these are the markers of a player who isn’t just surviving in the NHL, but already shaping games in the areas that matter most. We’ll do another post about just how good he is using these metrics, but in this area, he’s shining beyond his seasons.
Looking at Expected Goals: Who’s Driving the Maple Leafs Bus?
When we looked at expected goals at even strength, one thing jumped out: John Tavares is doing what his numbers say he should be doing. He’s plus-six in actual goals and plus-4.87 in expected. That’s the profile of a veteran who’s playing honest hockey and getting rewarded for it.
Auston Matthews, on the other hand, is a different story. His actual goal differential (plus-11) is miles ahead of his expected (plus-3.49). Nobody should actually be shocked he finishes better than the models expect: he’s Matthews after all. But the underlying number is lower than you’d think. Matthews is scoring at an elite level, but the chances he’s generating haven’t always matched his finishing.
And then there’s Max Domi. People look at the surface numbers and see a minus-11 and assume the sky is falling. But his expected number sits at only minus-0.85. That’s not a player drowning; that’s a player who’s been on the wrong side of some shooting and save-percentage luck. Last season, he was the opposite: minus-8 expected, plus-6 actual. For Domi, it would seem hockey has a long memory and sometimes snaps back.
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We’ll likely use the analysis for another post or two, but one little surprising teaser. There were a couple of quiet surprises: Dakota Joshua and Stephen Lorentz have rough actual goal numbers, but both look far more useful once the goaltending noise is stripped out.
Overall, the expected-goals story shows that Tavares is rock-solid. Matthews is producing beyond the chances he creates for himself. Domi’s luck should rebound. Cowan looks legitimate.
High-Danger Chances: The Heart of the Matter
If there’s one number we trust more than any other, it’s this one. High-danger chances tell you who’s creating real opportunities. These are not hopeful shots from the boards, not floaters from the blue line, but the chances that win and lose games.
The top three at even strength are Tavares (plus-17), Cowan (plus-16), and William Nylander (plus-15). Tavares being first is no surprise. He’s been outstanding all season. But (as noted), Cowan showing up as the number two forward in generating high-danger looks? That’s not just impressive — that’s a sign of a player who’s already figured out how to play winning NHL hockey.
And here’s the kicker: by percentage, Cowan leads the whole team. He’s not riding shotgun with stars. He’s not getting easy minutes. He’s just putting himself in spots where good things happen. It matches the eye test. It matches the underlying numbers. And it suggests this youngster will be a factor long before anyone expected.
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On the opposite end, the biggest eyebrow-raiser is Matthews again. He’s only plus-3 in high-danger chances. That’s tied with Sammy Blais and behind Joshua. That’s not where you’d expect him. You don’t panic over it, but you do wonder if Matthews is leaning a bit harder into his defensive responsibilities this season. It’s worth keeping an eye on.
Domi gets another bump here as well. He’s slightly positive (plus-2), which again points to a player doing enough to expect better results eventually.
And then we get to the players who pop for the wrong reasons, Nicolas Roy (minus-13) and Calle Järnkrok (minus-12) at even strength. When a player is bottom-tier in both expected goals and high-danger chances, that’s a trend, not a blip.
Maple Leafs’ Special Teams: Same Story, Different Ice Time
Power-play (PP) and penalty-kill (PK) numbers are tough to evaluate individually because ice time drives so much of the outcome. The big guns dominate PP minutes, so naturally, they top the categories. PK players spend their shifts surviving, so naturally, they give up chances to the opposition.
The only real standout? Cowan again — the highest expected-goals percentage of any forward on the power play. The fact is that, for now, special teams probably need a different ranking method.
What Does This All Mean for the Maple Leafs?
When you step back and line up the expected goals, high-danger chances, and the actual scoring results, the picture becomes clearer. Here’s a short list of what our analysis taught us:
First, Tavares and Nylander are carrying the most consistent load and driving the team’s best minutes. Second, Cowan is genuinely pushing play in the right direction. Third, Matthews is putting up results, but his underlying chance-creation is more modest than expected. Fourth, Domi’s underlying numbers are stronger than his actual results suggest. Fifth, Roy and Järnkrok are lagging in the key areas that define sustainable impact.
None of this is the final word. Hockey never gives you a single clean answer. But these numbers do a good job of showing where the engine is running smoothly, where it’s leaking, and where something unexpected might be brewing.
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And in the Maple Leafs’ case, it tells us the leadership core is doing what it should — and a 20-year-old rookie might already be joining them.
[Note: I want to thank long-time Maple Leafs fan Stan Smith for collaborating with me on this post. Stan’s Facebook profile can be found here.]
