For a while, it seemed the Calder Trophy was Connor Bedard’s to lose. But the race got a little more wide open after he suffered a broken jaw in a loss to the New Jersey Devils on Jan. 5, keeping him out of game action for the next six to eight weeks.
With Bedard out for the foreseeable future, that opens the door for other rookies to make their cases for the Calder Trophy. Brock Faber may be the leading candidate to win it now, but he’s not the only rookie with a shot at strengthening his Calder case. Let’s look at whose chances just got significantly better.
Faber & Hughes May Pull Ahead
There’s been plenty of attention on Faber’s start to his career, and rightfully so. He’s logged 25-30 minutes in some games, and it has not come in easy ice time. Just over 40 percent of his minutes have come against elite competition, while 39.1 percent has come against the middle of the lineup.
That means Faber is playing against teams’ top nines and top lines quite often. The results speak for themselves, too. His even-strength defense has been worth an expected goals above replacement (xGAR) of 2.4, so he’s providing positive value to the Minnesota Wild.
Not only is Faber providing positive value, but the Wild have been a significantly better team when he’s on the ice versus when he’s off. He’s one of their best shot suppressors, with the Wild allowing just 2.13 expected goals per 60 minutes during his five-on-five minutes.
Faber might end up being the frontrunner with Bedard out, but he’s not the only young defenseman with a shot at taking home the trophy. New Jersey Devils defenseman Luke Hughes has lived up to the hype to start his NHL career. He has 23 points in 39 games, putting him on pace to finish with 48 points this season.
The youngest Hughes brother has produced slightly more than Faber offensively. His defensive impacts have been solid, too, but the difference between the two defensemen is that Faber has played much tougher minutes. Just 27 percent of Hughes’ ice time has come against elite competition.
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That number will likely increase with Jonas Siegenthaler and Dougie Hamilton out of the lineup long-term. But I still wouldn’t expect it to reach the level of Faber. There’s also been plenty of attention around Faber on social media when he plays 25-plus minutes a night. I’m not saying he’s a lock to win the trophy now because of that, but people who vote for the award have their attention on him.
Mintyukov & Fantilli Among Others Who Can Make a Push
Hughes and Faber aren’t the only young defensemen who could win the Calder Trophy. Pavel Mintyukov has cooled off since his hot start with the Anaheim Ducks, but he’s still on pace for about 40 points this season. He’s played quite well offensively and looks like he’ll eventually be a top-pair defenseman for the Ducks.
Another young blueliner who’s played well is Hughes’ teammate, Šimon Nemec. He doesn’t have the scoring upside of Hughes or even Mintyukov, at least not yet in his career. But he’s conducted himself very well for a 19-year-old defenseman who wouldn’t even be in the NHL if it weren’t for Hamilton’s injury.
Nemec’s player card from JFresh shows he should be in the Calder convo, too. He’s been solid all-around and has played difficult minutes in the absence of Hamilton. There’s an even argument he might be the Devils’ best rookie defenseman:
Normally, there are plenty of forwards in the mix for the Calder. As of now, Marco Rossi might have the best chance to get in the Calder conversation. He’s on pace for 24 goals and 49 points and has played well at five-on-five, averaging 2.27 points per 60 minutes, making him the Wild’s most efficient five-on-five scorer.
Adam Fantilli has come along after a slow start with the Columbus Blue Jackets. He’s now on pace for 21 goals and 46 points after totaling 12 points across his previous 15 contests. He has work to do, but don’t rule him out if he continues to play the way he has for the last month.
Rossi and Fantilli are the top contenders for the Calder among forwards with Bedard out, but do not discount Connor Zary. He’s been one of the Calgary Flames’ best forwards this season, totaling 21 points in 32 games, putting him on pace for 20 goals and 47 points in 72 games.
Zary has a 53.88 expected goals share (xG%) at five-on-five, the fourth-best mark on the Flames. I don’t expect him to win the Calder at this point. But he could get top-three votes, just as Fantilli and Rossi could at season’s end.
Still, it looks like the Calder has opened up more for Faber, Hughes and some of the other rookie defensemen than it has for forwards. Oh, and even though Bedard could miss close to two months with a broken jaw, his Calder chances are still very much alive.
Bedard Will Still Be in the Race
Bedard may be out long-term, but he had 33 points in 37 games at the time of his injury. The Chicago Blackhawks were without Taylor Hall before Bedard got hurt, so they were already limited offensively. Now, with Bedard out, they have a depleted lineup with mostly bottom-six forwards taking the ice.
It’s hard to quantify just how valuable Bedard has been for an offensively starved Blackhawks team and how much they’ll miss him. His even-strength offense has been worth an xGAR of 8.5, ranked 16th among all forwards in the NHL. Not just rookies, but all forwards.
That number is better than forwards such as Roope Hintz, Connor McDavid(!), and Brayden Point, to name a few. That’s not to say Bedard is better than any of those players, at least not yet. But it shows how impactful he’s already been as an 18-year-old.
And even though Bedard will miss six to eight weeks of games, there’s still a chance he comes back and ends up appearing in 50-plus contests for the Blackhawks. If that’s the case, he could easily still win the Calder if he produces as he did pre-injury.
But what that does in the meantime is open up the Calder Trophy race. It was looking like it was a lock for Bedard before his injury. But now, Faber, Hughes, and other rookies in the chase have a chance to make up ground and take home the trophy as the NHL’s top rookie for 2023-24. That should make for an exciting race across the second half of the season.
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