The future of any NHL team depends on its prospect pool, and the St. Louis Blues‘ pipeline is thin. Not being known for great selections, it’s been quite the ride waiting for the Blues to hit on a pick. However, former first-round pick Jake Neighbours is finally reaching his true offensive potential.
Blues general manager (GM) Doug Armstrong has not been shy about making trades during his 15-year tenure, making over 70 deals since taking over in 2008. Establishing himself as one of the league’s most aggressive GMs, Armstrong is always looking for a deal that will improve the team’s chances of competing both in the short-term and long-term.
In 2018, with a “win-now” philosophy, Armstrong made a deal to acquire center Ryan O’Reilly from the Buffalo Sabres. In exchange, the Blues received a variety of assets. However, in making a blockbuster move, he managed to keep his 2020 first-round pick, while sending draft picks in both 2019 and 2021. Armstrong is never shy about parting with draft picks, so keeping this first-rounder was unexpected in such a high-profile trade.
That 2020 first-round pick became forward Jake Neighbours who was selected 26th overall. Knowing that their prospect pool was ranked near the bottom of the league, Armstrong selected Neighbours with the hope of revitalizing the depleted group in Springfield and potentially finding the future face of the franchise.
While some questioned Neighbours’ ability to become a top-six player in the NHL, Armstrong stood behind the young Canadian. A few seasons later, and after a lot of ups and downs, Neighbours has finally turned a corner and become a pivotal part of the team.
Neighbours Prospect Report
Before he was drafted in the 2020 NHL Draft, Neighbours spent time in the Western Hockey League (WHL) with the Edmonton Oil Kings. He produced just over a point per game in five seasons, with 60 goals and 176 points in 171 games.
Many scouts felt that Neighbours had the physicality and speed of an NHL player but lacked the size and playmaking ability to thrive as a cornerstone of a team’s success.
Quotables
“Neighbours was an important part of Edmonton’s team, scoring more than a point per game and being a leading shot generator in the WHL. He’s a very smart player. He played the flank on Edmonton’s PP1 and showed the ability to make NHL caliber plays in all situations. I debated between a 55 and a 60 for his hands. In practice and in games he shows very quick twitch puck handling and impressive ability to saucer pucks. His 1-on-1 game is not that impressive, so I leaned to a 55. Neighbours has a bullet of a shot and scored several goals this past season that goalies had little to no chance on. He competes hard. He doesn’t shy from physical engagement and is a solid penalty killer. I could see him become a quality bottom-six forward in the NHL and, if he gains a step, I could see him become more than that” (from ‘2020 NHL Draft Board: Corey Pronman’s final top 131 prospects,’ The Athletic, 09/29/20.)
Related: Jake Neighbours – 2020 NHL Draft Prospect Profile
“…Neighbours is a rugged 200-foot forward who can tailor his game to fit any situation or requirement. He has very good speed and acceleration which helps him outpace backpressure, and Neighbours will take the puck strong to the cage while patiently outwitting the goaltender. He scores goals in a variety of ways, but the damage he causes is typically done near the net. Neighbours can play center or wing, and his attention to detail in all three zones should make him Edmonton’s go-to option in multiple scenarios.” – Steve Kournianos, The Sporting News
“Jake Neighbours may not reach the offensive ceiling that Matthew Tkachuk has but he certainly has the skill and play style to get there. He has a big frame and plays bigger than he is. He is strong on the cycle and has good hands in traffic. His shot is a major weapon but he doesn’t use it in dangerous areas as often as one would like because he is always willing to throw a shot on net. Like Matthew Tkachuk, he does an excellent job of using his physicality to make a play and chooses his spots well. He rarely throws hits just to throw hits.” – Tony Ferrari, Dobber Prospects
Neighbours’ Progression to the Top Line
After a rocky first few seasons with the Blues, Neighbours has since developed his game extremely well and has become a top contributor this season. He has seven goals and one assist in his last seven games as well as 14 hits and eight blocks to earn a top-six spot in the lineup.
After starting the season on the third line with Kevin Hayes and Jakub Vrana, Neighbours was moved to the fourth line. However, head coach Craig Berube, who wanted to see more from Neighbours, got his wish over the last two weeks. Having worked his way from the fourth line up, he is now slotted on the first line with Robert Thomas and Pavel Buchnevich. As a result, his ice time has increased from an average of 11:54 to 16:08. Additionally, he has earned some time on special teams.
The Blues have struggled mightily on the power play this season. Having the league’s worst power play with a 9.2 percent success rate, there was an obvious need for a change. With Neighbours’ recent offensive surge, he earned extra time on the second unit to try and provide a spark. In the last six games, he has one power-play goal and has helped the Blues cycle the puck well in the offensive zone with the man advantage.
Were the Scouts Right About Neighbours?
The one thing that was mentioned repeatedly about Neighbours’ play was his physicality and speed. In his limited time with the Blues, he has shown those traits with his constant forechecking and breakout play. He is still young, with a lot of room to improve, but seeing his ability to play fast and hard is a positive sign and one of the many reasons he has earned a spot on the top line.
However, he must improve on his defensive game. Since he was called up to the Blues in the 2021-22 season, he has ranked in the bottom five in plus/minus every season. If Neighbours wants to improve that rating, it starts with puck possession. Keeping the opposition from scoring involves playing a smart game and doing the little things right. His hockey IQ has improved, but he needs to show more consistency.
What Does Neighbours’ Ceiling Look Like?
It is hard to find a reality where Neighbours becomes an elite player. He lacks a dominant talent and doesn’t have the ability to take over games with a single play like Connor McDavid or Connor Bedard – Bedard has his shot and McDavid has his speed and puck-handling skills. Neighbours doesn’t have that type of ceiling. With that being said, he is still a very good player who plays the game the correct way. There is a lot to like about his game, but it is hard to see him becoming a full-time first-line player.
The expectation is that his production will cool off, but he should still be a solid middle-six forward for the Blues, similar to Dallas Stars forward Matt Duchene.
Duchene plays the game with a lot of speed and has the ability to become the hottest player in the NHL at times, but he also has long droughts in which he goes weeks without recording a point. We can probably expect something like that from Neighbours – not quite a point-per-game player, but more like a 30-30 player.
If Neighbours can become a consistent 50-70 point player throughout his prime years in St. Louis, Armstrong should consider keeping that 2020 first-round selection a massive success.
