By now, whether it ends up coming to fruition or not, most people expect the Montreal Canadiens to make the Stanley Cup Playoffs in 2025-26. And for good reason. They’re a clear team on the rise as the youngest one in history to have (just) made them (according to some sources) after having improved each season in the standings since 2022.
Related: Canadiens Could Still Fall Short of the Playoffs Next Season
So, it would be a step back for the Canadiens to fall short, but, obviously, not all would be lost in the event of a non-playoff finish, especially seeing as they’re still considered far from Stanley Cup contenders. Here are the top five ways 2025-26 wouldn’t end up a complete failure in such an instance:
5) 40+ Goals From Caufield
Is it critical for Cole Caufield to score 40 goals for the first time in his career? No. The Canadiens clearly got by relatively fine with the career-high 37 he scored last year. However, considering the gradual increase in goal production he’s experienced, the 40-goal plateau is probably at the back of the minds of Habs fans everywhere.
Caufield could realistically give the team its first 40-goal scorer since Vincent Damphousse (1993-94), which would at least soften the blow of a non-playoff finish. However, realistically, Caufield scoring 40 goals would probably go a long way to helping secure a berth instead.
4) Reinbacher Graduating to the NHL
After David Reinbacher suffered a serious knee injury during the preseason last year, everyone feared the worst. Thankfully, he returned late in the season with the Laval Rocket, effectively replicating his production from the year before, which could be interpreted as a good sign his development is back on track, with the Canadiens having drafted him fifth overall in 2023. The implication is they have high hopes for him, probably as a defensively aware top-pairing defenseman, at least initially.
Unfortunately, those projections may have to be downgraded based on the knee injury and the general consensus that Reinbacher is not yet NHL-ready. That assessment was obviously made soon after last season. A lot can change over the summer. If he were to impress in training camp and maybe even make the team, it would give the Canadiens a full complement of right-handed defensemen, potentially landing him on a pairing with Lane Hutson, where many saw him settling in eventually to complement the offensively gifted Calder Memorial Trophy winner. It would also alleviate concerns over his health.
That having been said, the Canadiens don’t need to rush Reinbacher. That’s obviously not the answer either. He’s only 21 and only subject to waivers starting in 2027-28. So, both he and the Habs have time. However, in the event the Habs fall short of a playoff spot, the ability for head coach Martin St. Louis to deploy the team’s defense as it was probably envisioned in long-term projections, with Reinbacher figuring in as a significant factor, would conceivably give them a head start on the future, moving past 2025-26.
3) 60+ Points From Dobson
When the Canadiens acquired Noah Dobson early this summer, you had to believe they salivated over the idea of him returning to 70-point territory, which he reached two seasons ago, while still with the New York Islanders. While top-pairing, right-shot defensemen still in their mid-twenties are incredibly valuable, you’re probably not giving up two first-round picks (and depth-forward Emil Heineman) for them and agreeing to a $9.5 million cap hit over the next eight seasons unless they’re putting up points at an elite level.
So, logically, the Canadiens believe they’re acquiring the Dobson of 2023-24, while the one who still put up a respectable 39 points in 71 games this past season is an outlier. If he were to get back to that level of production, it would go a long way to further establishing the team’s defense as one with which to be reckoned for much of the next decade.
For the record, NHL.com projects Dobson hitting 51, which would at least represent a significant year-over-year uptick in production. It’s just not the 66 or 62 Hutson or Mike Matheson scored this past season and in 2023-24 respectively, which goes to show it is possible for Dobson to get back up over 60, because it’s been done on this specific team in the recent past. It just remains to be seen if there’s enough power-play time to go around.
2) Dach Finishing the Season, Ideally at Centre
Not to come across as mean-spirited, but facts are facts: Kirby Dach has yet to finish a season with the Canadiens since getting acquired at the 2022 NHL Entry Draft, with this past season and 2023-24 ending with injuries to the same knee. Seeing as he was acquired to fill a critical role as the team’s second-line centre, the disappointment surrounding his inability to live up to the potential he displayed in 2022-23, when he put up 38 points in 58 games, over the course of a complete season down the middle, cannot be overstated.
Everyone has a fairly good idea that Dach can be an effective second-line centre, when healthy. The primary question is, can he stay healthy? And, then, if he can, can he keep up after the two knee surgeries? If so, general manager Kent Hughes will have made good use of the 13th and 66th overall picks (eventually used on Frank Nazar and Gavin Hayes) he dealt to the Chicago Blackhawks to acquire him, without having to deal away additional assets to acquire another candidate to fill the same role. Most importantly, he’ll also have gone a long way to securing a huge part of the team’s future, as Dach is still just 24.
1) Demidov Winning Calder Memorial Trophy
Officially, the second straight Calder after Hutson would be more of a vanity, something Canadiens fans will be able to look back on fondly. However, Ivan Demidov capturing it, as expected, would be a sign the scouting reports suggesting he’s a superstar talent, capable of scoring 100 points (or more), are accurate.
Demidov’s arrival late last season certainly seemed to confirm he has that ceiling, after he scored two points in the first period of his debut. However, even including the five games he played in the posteason, it’s an admitted small sample size. So, an entire season of impressive play, to the point he wins the Calder, would be a huge indicator of future success, both for him and the team overall.
As Canadiens fans are aware, superstars don’t grow on trees. So, Demidov hypothetically blossoming into one is as good as it gets for a young team that has been getting better each season. In the objectively unlikely event they miss the postseason and fail to improve in 2025-26, there will be little reason to see it as anything but an outlier, a bump on the road to eventual Stanley Cup contention.
