There are reclamation projects… and then there are projects like recently signed Montreal Canadiens forward Lias Andersson.
The Canadiens would obviously prefer to have Andersson in the fold than not, especially executive vice president of hockey operations Jeff Gorton and co-director of amateur scouting Nick Bobrov. The two drafted Andersson when Gorton was the general manager of the New York Rangers and Bobrov their director of European scouting, back in 2017.
More to the point the two drafted Andersson seventh overall, six picks ahead of Nick Suzuki, pointing to his level of potential, which has largely gone untapped up to now. That’s why Andersson was available in the first place, despite being just 25 years old to start the 2023-24 season.
The Los Angeles Kings didn’t extend a qualifying offer to Andersson, who had been a restricted free agent, making him unrestricted (in this specific instance; He goes back to being restricted in theory when his one-year deal expires in 2024), per CapFriendly. The severed ties with the Kings shouldn’t come as much of a surprise, seeing as he’s only scored seven goals and 17 points in 110 career games, only one of which coming in 2022-23.
However, Andersson did score a quasi-impressive 59 points in 67 American Hockey League games with the Ontario Reign last season. So, more realistically, he’s a signing made to round out the Laval Rocket roster, especially seeing as he inked a two-way deal with the Canadiens.
Andersson a Potential Victim of Numbers Game
Obviously, the nature of the deal doesn’t preclude him from earning a spot with the Canadiens. The deck is just heavily stacked against him, with so many forwards in line for roster spots. Excluding Andersson, the Canadiens have 14 NHL-caliber forwards signed for next season.
The list of 14 also excludes:
- Rem Pitlick, who may not have Andersson’s draft pedigree, but has definitely enjoyed much more success, even as a depth/utility forward, with 54 points in 123 career games.
- Sean Farrell, who joined the Canadiens out of university last season as one of the top prospects in their pipeline.
- Jesse Ylonen, another relative top Habs prospect, who made inroads to securing an NHL spot last season, with 16 points in 37 games.
There are obvious cases to be made for either of those three over Andersson. However, the opposite is true as well. Andersson arguably has a higher ceiling relative to Pitlick, maybe even Ylonen. Also, it’s probably best the Canadiens take a slow and steady approach with Farrell, considering his projected ceiling is higher than Andersson’s at this point.
Harvey-Pinard Likely Staying Put
Even so, for Andersson to earn a spot, he’s going to have to beat out a player already projected to have one. In terms of those Andersson could at least quasi-realistically outplay in that regard, you have 2022 first-overall-pick Juraj Slafkovsky and 2022-23 standout Rafael Harvey-Pinard. Both are waiver-exempt, meaning it would be easy for the Canadiens to cut them out of training camp in principle, just not in practice.
Firstly, the new deal Harvey-Pinard just signed is a one-way contract. So, from a financial perspective, it makes more sense to demote Andersson. That’s true from a practical one too, seeing as Harvey-Pinard had an impressive rookie season, scoring 14 goals and 20 points in 34 games.
For context, those are three more points than Andersson has scored in his entire career. So, the notion of Andersson earning Harvey-Pinard’s spot could only result from one of two things: a) Andersson having a great training camp, while Harvey-Pinard has a horrible one or b) nepotism, which flies in the face of the hypothetical meritocracy taking shape.
Slafkovsky Has Inside Track over Andersson
That may admittedly run counter to the potential of Slafkovsky staying in the NHL as he didn’t seem NHL-ready as a rookie. Sending him directly to the AHL to start his sophomore season would admittedly be a bad look. As a result, look for Slafkovsky to be given every opportunity to make the team out of training camp.
Related: Why Shouldn’t Canadiens Play Slafkovsky in AHL in 2023-24?
So, if anyone is under the impression Andersson has an inside track to making the team because of a past relationship at Slafkovsky’s expense, consider the current relationship the latter has with management. Sure, on the surface that reeks of a form of nepotism in its own right, but the Canadiens simply have much more invested in Slafkovsky than the flier they took on the former. That cannot nor should not be denied.
That isn’t to say signing Andersson was a mistake. It was a curious decision, not a bad one. Some may see it as bad asset management, signing a former high pick only to demote them. However, even if there’s little chance of that pick so much as getting a shot in the NHL next season, the Canadiens did improve their organizational depth with the signing. That too can’t be denied.
Deck Stacked Against Andersson
Ideally, yeah, Andersson reaches his potential. And it’s clear by the signing Gorton and Bobrov still believe in him, but belief is just one part of the equation. For Andersson to even get a shot at panning out with the Canadiens a lot of things have to go a certain way, and it’s uncertain whether those things going the way they need to would be good or bad for the team’s overall outlook.
For example, sure GM Kent Hughes can make more room on the roster by trading away/demoting forwards like Mike Hoffman or Joel Armia, neither of whom have long-term futures in the organization. However, for Andersson to dress in such an unlikely scenario he’d have to outperform a whole host of other players in whom the Canadiens have spent a great deal more time developing in-house.
Based on Andersson’s lack of NHL success up to this point, that would be quite an indictment of the team’s drafting and development, barring a simply incredible preseason showing on his part. All that taken into account probably the only way Andersson gets an extended stay in the NHL with the Canadiens is through injuries… which would obviously make for less than ideal circumstances as well, as everyone’s seen over the last two years.
So, for a team looking to show drastic improvement, Andersson suddenly breaking out just isn’t in the cards. Even if the deck is stacked against Andersson though, with the signing the Canadiens are stacking it in their favor as much as possible. There’s nothing wrong with that. You want a wildcard like Andersson in the fold, just as long as your entire hand doesn’t depend on drawing it.
