Atlantic Division roundup? Check. Metropolitan Division roundup? Check. Now, let’s move on to the Western Conference, starting with the Central Division, which looks more balanced than it did a season ago. Which teams improved the most this offseason? And which ones may have gotten a little worse? Let’s take a look.
Dallas Stars
2023-24 season: 52-21-9, 113 points, 1st in Central
Notable offseason moves:
- Signed Matt Dumba (2 years)
- Signed Ilya Lyubushkin (3 years)
- Signed Brendan Smith (1 year)
- Signed Casey DeSmith (3 years)
- Signed Colin Blackwell (1 year)
- Re-signed Matt Duchene (1 year)
Key departures:
Chris Tanev, Craig Smith, Jani Hakanpää, Scott Wedgewood, Joe Pavelski, Ryan Suter
Re-signing Chris Tanev was always going to be a long shot for the Stars this offseason, so they needed to find a suitable replacement. Unfortunately, it doesn’t seem that general manager Jim Nill found a suitable replacement for Tanev. Matt Dumba is not the player he used to be, and Ilya Lyubushkin is no more than a depth defender.
Related: Metropolitan Division Continuing Downward Trend Heading Into 2024-25
Casey DeSmith seems like a decent upgrade over Scott Wedgewood, who struggled last season; DeSmith gave up 0.4 goals above expected, while Wedgewood gave up 9.4 goals above expected. Jake Oettinger will get the majority of the starts, but DeSmith is a fine enough backup.
Still, I don’t like what the Stars have done this offseason. Their signings were worth a net of minus-1.1 wins, and they lost 4.3 wins from last season’s team. That’s not to say they’ll be five wins worse next season. Top prospects like Logan Stankoven and Mavrik Bourque could make an impact, and Wyatt Johnston is a star. But it’d be quite the reach to say they got better this summer.
Winnipeg Jets
2023-24 season: 52-24-6, 110 points, 2nd in Central
Notable offseason moves:
- Re-signed Dylan DeMelo (4 years)
- Signed Kaapo Kähkönen (1 year)
Key departures:
Tyler Toffoli, Sean Monahan, Brenden Dillon, Nate Schmidt, Laurent Brossoit, Rick Bowness
While I did think the Jets were better than most were giving them credit for heading into last season, they still exceeded expectations. Unfortunately, it may be difficult for them to repeat their success, as they lost quite a few key players from a roster that helped them finish just three points behind the Stars for first place. And GM Kevin Cheveldayoff didn’t do much to replace the departures.
Kaapo Kähkönen played pretty well for a terrible San Jose Sharks team last season and was quite good for the New Jersey Devils after the trade deadline. He’ll be a reliable backup for Connor Hellebuyck, but the Jets still lost a net of 3.8 wins from last season’s roster. I still think they’re a playoff team because of Hellebuyck, but they might have to sweat it out in 2024-25; their over/under is 95.5. That’s especially true since the division looks more balanced.
Colorado Avalanche
2023-24 season: 50-25-7, 107 points, 3rd in Central
Notable offseason moves:
- Re-signed Jonathan Drouin (1 year)
- Signed Calvin de Haan (1 year)
- Signed Erik Brannstrom (1 year)
- Signed Parker Kelly (1 year)
- Signed Oliver Kylington (1 year)
Key departures:
Andrew Cogliano (retired), Pavel Francouz (retired), Brandon Duhaime, Yakov Trenin, Sean Walker, Jack Johnson, Zach Parise
‘The Colorado Avalanche were tight on cap space this offseason, so all their additions were cheap one-year deals they hope can provide more value than their annual average values (AAV). Erik Brannstrom has the most upside of the Avalanche’s signings this offseason. The Ottawa Senators may have bought him out, but his underlying numbers over the last three seasons show there might be a player with more to offer.
Re-signing Jonathan Drouin should help, as he had a bounce-back season in 2023-24, totaling 19 goals and 56 points in 79 games. Other than that, the Avalanche had to be careful with their spending because Gabriel Landeskog and Valeri Nichushkin are expected back at some point this season, and they will need the necessary cap space to activate them.
The Avalanche added minus-0.4 wins this offseason and lost 0.8 wins from last season’s team, but Nichushkin and Landeskog are the big unknowns. If they return and look like their old selves, the Avalanche will be a wagon. But even without them, this team didn’t get significantly worse this summer. Their O/U is 102.5, so they should make the playoffs without too much trouble.
Nashville Predators
2023-24 season: 47-30-5, 99 points, 4th in Central (WC1)
Notable offseason moves:
- Signed Steven Stamkos (4 years)
- Signed Jonathan Marchessault (5 years)
- Signed Brady Skjei (7 years)
- Signed Scott Wedgewood (2 years)
- Signed Nick Blankenburg (2 years)
- Re-signed Alexandre Carrier (3 years)
Key departures:
Ryan McDonagh, Cody Glass, Anthony Beauvillier, Tyson Barrie, Kiefer Sherwood, Jason Zucker, Kevin Lankinen
Perhaps the busiest team this offseason, the Nashville Predators made some splashy signings to improve a roster that surprised everyone and made the playoffs a season ago. While the Predators did get better this summer, I think how much better they got is being a bit overstated.
Steven Stamkos was a 41-goal, 81-point player a season ago, but half his points literally came on the power play. Will he do that in Nashville? I wouldn’t bet on it, and there are some legit signs of decline in his game at five-on-five. He will help the Predators for sure, but he might not be the big-time upgrade everyone thinks.
Jonathan Marchessault is coming off a 42-goal season, but that was a career year he’s unlikely to repeat. He’s shown some signs of decline in his game, and that’s unlikely to reverse at 34 years old. Brady Skjei is a minute-eating defenseman who will provide offense from the back end. His 7×7 deal might be a bit rich, but he was a good addition by GM Barry Trotz.
We mentioned Wedgewood at the top of this article, but he’s a real downgrade in net from Kevin Lankinen, who remains a UFA. Lankinen saved 4.1 goals above expected last season, which was even better than Juuse Saros. Saros is a workhorse, but there could be problems if Wedgewood doesn’t bounce back.
The Predators added a net of 0.9 wins this offseason. Their O/U is 98.5, so Vegas seems to think they’re more or less the same team. I’d be surprised if they didn’t make the playoffs, but I wouldn’t pick them to finish ahead of the Stars or Avalanche.
St. Louis Blues
2023-24 season: 43-33-6, 92 points, 5th in Central
Notable offseason moves:
- Signed Philip Broberg to offer sheet (2 years)
- Signed Dylan Holloway to offer sheet (2 years)
- Signed Ryan Suter (1 year)
- Signed Pierre-Oliver Joseph (1 year)
- Acquired Mathieu Joseph
- Acquired Alexandre Texier
- Acquired Radek Faksa
Key departures:
Kevin Hayes, Marco Scandella
The St. Louis Blues were busy this offseason, though most of their work came around the edges. Ryan Suter and Pierre-Olivier Joseph will provide some defensive depth, while Mathieu Joseph, Alexandre Texier and Radek Faksa should improve the team’s bottom-six depth.
It looked like the Blues’ offseason was close to over until recently. But GM Doug Armstrong decided to spice things up and offer sheeted two Edmonton Oilers restricted free agents, Philip Broberg and Dylan Holloway. The Oilers did not match either, so Broberg and Holloway joined the Blues on two-year deals.
Broberg never found his footing in Edmonton, but he’s an excellent skater, and is coming off a solid postseason. Holloway has struggled with injuries, but was a first-round pick in 2020 and is only 22. The potential is there.
The Blues added a net of 1.8 wins this offseason, but they also seem like a team stuck in that no man’s land of the 17th-20th best team in the NHL. Their O/U is 86.5, so they probably aren’t good enough to be a playoff team but not bad enough to bottom out and get a high pick in the 2025 draft.
Minnesota Wild
2023-24 season: 39-34-9, 87 points, 6th in Central
Notable offseason moves:
- Signed Yakov Trenin (4 years)
- Acquired Jakub Lauko
- Acquired Graeme Clarke
Key departures:
N/A
It was a mostly quiet offseason for the Minnesota Wild. Their main addition was signing Yakov Trenin to a four-year contract at an AAV of $3.5 million. He’s been one of the better bottom-six wingers over the last three seasons, averaging 15 goals per 82 games while posting some excellent defensive impacts at even strength and on the penalty kill.
But other than Trenin, the Wild appear to be mostly running back the same team from a season ago. They’ve drafted very well under Judd Brackett over the last few years, so they will likely need some internal improvement to jump in the standings because they still look a step below some of the top teams in the Central.
Utah Hockey Club
2023-24 season: 36-41-5, 77 points
Notable offseason moves:
- Acquired Mikhail Sergachev
- Acquired John Marino
- Signed Ian Cole (1 year)
- Signed Kevin Stenlund (2 years)
Key departures:
J.J. Moser, Josh Brown, Travis Dermott
It’s a new era for Utah HC, who relocated to Salt Lake City from Phoenix, Arizona this offseason. GM Bill Armstrong wasted no time making moves to help this team become more competitive in front of a new fanbase.
John Marino brings them a shutdown defenseman they didn’t exactly have on their roster previously. I’m not the biggest fan of Mikhail Sergachev’s game, but Utah is making the big bet that he can be a top-pair defenseman for them; he is getting paid $8.5 million annually for the next seven years. At the very least, he should give them some offensive ability from the back end.
Utah added a net of 3.3 wins this offseason; their key departures were all negative WAR players last season. Some of their improvement is addition by subtraction, and internal growth from prospects like Logan Cooley, Josh Doan, etc. should have this team more competitive than they were a season ago.
Chicago Blackhawks
2023-24 season: 23-53-6, 52 points, 8th in Metro
Notable offseason moves:
- Signed Tyler Bertuzzi (4 years)
- Signed Teuvo Teravainen (3 years)
- Signed T.J. Brodie (2 years)
- Signed Alec Martinez (1 year)
- Signed Laurent Brossoit (2 years)
- Signed Patrick Maroon (1 year)
- Signed Craig Smith (1 year)
- Acquired Ilya Mikheyev
Key departures:
Sam Lafferty, Tyler Johnson, Colin Blackwell, Nikita Zaitsev, Taylor Raddysh, MacKenzie Entwistle
The Blackhawks were borderline unwatchable last season, and I only say borderline because Connor Bedard was worth the viewing. The 2024-25 season should be different, though, as GM Kyle Davidson looks eager to push their rebuild forward.
Bedard should have a lot more support with the signings of Tyler Bertuzzi and Teuvo Teravainen, two 20-25 goal scorers. Their bottom six should have better depth with the additions of Patrick Maroon, Ilya Mikheyev and Craig Smith. Mikheyev, in particular, has some upside if he can rebound after a tough season with the Vancouver Canucks.
I don’t expect the Blackhawks to be a good defensive team this season, but Alec Martinez and T.J. Brodie should give them some veteran stability on the back end. That should help shield young defensemen Alex Vlasic and Kevin Korchinski.
Laurent Brossoit hasn’t played much in the last two seasons (34 games), but he does have a .927 save percentage. The Blackhawks are paying him $3.3 million annually for the next two seasons, so his workload will likely increase. Will that SV% hold up with a bigger sample and behind a worse defense? Time will tell.
The Blackhawks added a net of 11.7 wins this offseason, so you could argue they’re the NHL’s most improved team. Still, they were a 52-point club a season ago, so it’s a long way up from the bottom. I expect them to be better, perhaps much better with internal improvement from Bedard, Korchinski, etc. They won’t be a playoff team, but they could finish somewhere in the 70-75 point range, which should shave off points from other contenders.
Central Division Prediction
The top two spots in the Central still seem like they belong to the Stars and Avalanche. Depending on how Nichushkin and Landeskog look, they could take back the top spot from the Stars. After them, the Predators look like a good bet to finish third, even though I don’t think they had as great an offseason as some may think.
But whatever the case is, the Central looks more balanced. Bottom-feeders like the Blackhawks and Utah HC improved, and that should balance out the division better and perhaps make the chase for a wild-card spot a bit more interesting:
- Avalanche – 106 points
- Stars – 105 points
- Predators – 99 points
- Jets – 94 points (WC2)
- Wild – 92 points
- Utah HC – 88 points
- Blues – 85 points
- Blackhawks – 74 points
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Advanced stats from Evolving Hockey
