• HOME
  • NHL Teams
    • North Division
      • Calgary Flames
      • Edmonton Oilers
      • Montreal Canadiens
      • Ottawa Senators
      • Toronto Maple Leafs
      • Vancouver Canucks
      • Winnipeg Jets
    • East Division
      • Boston Bruins
      • Buffalo Sabres
      • New Jersey Devils
      • New York Islanders
      • New York Rangers
      • Philadelphia Flyers
      • Pittsburgh Penguins
      • Washington Capitals
    • Central Division
      • Carolina Hurricanes
      • Chicago Blackhawks
      • Columbus Blue Jackets
      • Dallas Stars
      • Detroit Red Wings
      • Florida Panthers
      • Nashville Predators
      • Tampa Bay Lightning
    • West Division
      • Anaheim Ducks
      • Arizona Coyotes
      • Colorado Avalanche
      • Los Angeles Kings
      • Minnesota Wild
      • San Jose Sharks
      • Seattle Kraken
      • St. Louis Blues
      • Vegas Golden Knights
  • Headlines
  • NHL Rumors
  • NHL Prospects
  • World Juniors
  • Archives
  • Podcast Network
  • More…
    • CHL
      • Ontario Hockey League
      • Quebec Major Junior Hockey League
      • Western Hockey League
    • Columns
    • Women’s Hockey
    • Other Leagues
    • NHL Entry Draft
    • Books
    • NHL History
  • Log in
The Hockey Writers
  • Site Index
  • NHL Salary Caps
  • Hockey 101: A Beginner’s Guide
  • Join Our Team
  • Free Newsletter
  • Store
  • Log in
The Hockey Writers
  • HOME
  • NHL Teams
    • North Division
      • Calgary Flames
      • Edmonton Oilers
      • Montreal Canadiens
      • Ottawa Senators
      • Toronto Maple Leafs
      • Vancouver Canucks
      • Winnipeg Jets
    • East Division
      • Boston Bruins
      • Buffalo Sabres
      • New Jersey Devils
      • New York Islanders
      • New York Rangers
      • Philadelphia Flyers
      • Pittsburgh Penguins
      • Washington Capitals
    • Central Division
      • Carolina Hurricanes
      • Chicago Blackhawks
      • Columbus Blue Jackets
      • Dallas Stars
      • Detroit Red Wings
      • Florida Panthers
      • Nashville Predators
      • Tampa Bay Lightning
    • West Division
      • Anaheim Ducks
      • Arizona Coyotes
      • Colorado Avalanche
      • Los Angeles Kings
      • Minnesota Wild
      • San Jose Sharks
      • Seattle Kraken
      • St. Louis Blues
      • Vegas Golden Knights
  • Headlines
  • NHL Rumors
  • NHL Prospects
  • World Juniors
  • Archives
  • Podcast Network
  • More…
    • CHL
      • Ontario Hockey League
      • Quebec Major Junior Hockey League
      • Western Hockey League
    • Columns
    • Women’s Hockey
    • Other Leagues
    • NHL Entry Draft
    • Books
    • NHL History
Home
Colorado Avalanche

Avalanche at the Christmas Break: 2018 vs. 2017

By Nathan Kanter December 25th, 2018

Facebook Twitter LinkedIn WhatsApp

Some models predict the Colorado Avalanche’s playoff chances to be around 75 percent through 37 games, others higher than 80. Regardless, it’s safe to say their 2018-19 season thus far has been quite successful.

They undoubtedly have the top line in the National Hockey League in Gabriel Landeskog, Nathan MacKinnon and Mikko Rantanen, with the latter two sitting one-two in league scoring, and they are third in the NHL in goals with 129. Their power play is also among the league’s best, currently converting at a 27.3 percent clip, which ranks fourth.

Varlamov MacKinnon Rantanen Avalanche

Mikko Rantanen, right, and Nathan MacKinnon, centre, sit one-two in league scoring at the Christmas break (Ron Chenoy-USA TODAY Sports)

But one superb line and a strong power play can only get you so far. What about other measures of team success? It’s time to take a closer look at the Avalanche team stats at the 2018 Christmas break and compare them to their stats at this point last season.

2018-19 Stronger so Far for Avalanche

Let’s start by comparing the basics: the team’s record and goals for/goals against.

W L OTL ROW Points Point % GF GA DIFF
2018-19 19 12 6 19 44 (10th) 0.595 129 (3rd) 114 (23rd) 15 (7th)
2017-18 17 15 3 16 37 (23rd) 0.529 111 (9th) 112 (22nd) -1 (17th)

It’s pretty clear the Avalanche have done a better job in 2018-19 thus far, with more wins, points and goals for. One note of importance is that all of their 19 wins have come in either regulation or overtime (the ROW column), which could favour them should a tie-breaking situation arise.

The one area that was better at this point last season was their goals against, but only by two goals. Plus, they had played two less games by Christmas Eve. That isn’t to say this season’s high number of goals against, in which they rank 23rd, aren’t a concern. It certainly is, but it is nice to know it’s about on-par with last season when they did qualify for the post-season.

The other thing to remember is that they went on a memorable 10-game winning streak last season right after the Christmas break, going undefeated from Dec. 29 to Jan. 22. Without that streak, there would have been no playoff berth. So while they currently have a comfortable five-point cushion on the ninth-place Dallas Stars, it’s important to remember how quickly leads can evaporate.

2018-19 Special Teams the Reverse of 2017-18

PP% PPO PK% TS
2018-19 27.3 (4th) 132 (1st) 78.0 (22nd) 132 (3rd)
2017-18 19.2 (17th) 146 (1st) 82.9 (7th) 129 (8th)

This season, the club’s power play has been one of their strengths while their penalty kill has struggled, particularly at home. Last season it was the opposite when their power play was average through 35 games but their penalty kill was superb, especially considering it was just over 75 per cent the season before, their dreadful 2016-17 season when they won a total of 22 games.

A big reason their power play has been excellent in 2018-19 is unsurprisingly their top line. Landeskog, MacKinnon and Rantanen have a combined 53 power play points thus far, the second-most of any trio in the league behind the Florida Panthers’ Mike Hoffman, Jonathan Huberdeau and Keith Yandle with 56 between them.

Tyson Barrie has also been his usual self with 10 power play points in 33 games this season. Last season he recorded 30 power play points, third-most of any defenceman despite missing 14 games due to injury.

Avalanche defenseman Tyson Barrie

Defenseman Tyson Barrie is once again an integral part of the Avalanche power play (Isaiah J. Downing-USA TODAY Sports)

This also means their second unit hasn’t provided much offence this season. Just 10 of the club’s 36 power play goals have been scored by the second unit, or 27.7 per cent. That, however, is to be expected when your first unit is so lethal.

Advanced Numbers Also Favour 2018-19 Avalanche

There are plenty of team-related advanced metrics that can be used to predict future performance. Let’s take a quick gander at some of the more important ones.

CF% SCF% HDCF% SH% SV% PDO
2018-19 49.01 51.37 49.61 8.37 91.93 1.003
2017-18 47.88 47.86 46.85 8.42 92.01 1.004

All three of the shot and scoring chance metrics, Corsi For Percent (shots), Scoring Chances For Percent and High-Danger Scoring Chances For Percent have improved by about two to three per cent from this point last season. That is a positive sign because it means they are controlling more of the play at 5-on-5.

Their team shooting percentage, team save percentage and PDO (puck luck) are all on-par from last season. Because that PDO number is close to 1.00, it essentially means there aren’t any red flags.

If it were significantly above one, it would indicate a high likelihood of upcoming regression due to either an inflated shooting or save percentage, or both. If it were significantly below one, it would indicate the opposite due to a unreasonably low shooting or save percentages (i.e. bad luck). This season and last, that was not the case, which is another good sign.

Given all of the above information — the Avalanche record, goals for/goals against, special teams and advanced stats, it’s safe to say that things are going better than last season at this point. There are things to fix, including the penalty kill and secondary scoring, but without a doubt, the 2018-19 Avalanche are a legitimate playoff team.

  • Tags
  • Mikko Rantanen
  • Nathan MacKinnon
Facebook Twitter LinkedIn WhatsApp

Get theScore App Now!
Recent Posts
Jan 15th 6:25 PM
Montreal Canadiens

Canadiens’ Romanov Fired Up to Face Oilers’ McDavid and Draisaitl

Jan 15th 6:00 PM
San Jose Sharks

Sharks’ Second Line Shines in Season Opener

Jan 15th 5:50 PM
Toronto Maple Leafs

Maple Leafs’ Marner Looking to Add Goals to His Stats

Jan 15th 5:35 PM
Buffalo Sabres

Three Takeaways from the Sabres’ Season Opener

Jan 15th 4:50 PM
Edmonton Oilers

Oilers News and Rumors: Smith, Barrie, Forsberg, Puljujarvi, More

Jan 15th 4:40 PM
Edmonton Oilers

Oilers Have Rough Season Opener but No Need to Panic

Jan 15th 4:20 PM
Column

Jets News & Rumors: Scheifele, Laine, Hellebuyck, Lewis & Quicksand

Jan 15th 4:10 PM
New York Rangers

Rangers Bring More of the Same in 2020-21 Opening Night

Jan 15th 3:45 PM
Column

Red Wings News & Rumors: Ryan, COVID, Markstrom & More

Jan 15th 3:30 PM
Boston Bruins

2020-21 Season Openers: Flames Lose Again, Islanders & Capitals Excel

Editor’s Picks
World Junior Championship All-Time Leading Scorers

World Junior Championship All-Time Leading Scorers

2021 Guide To the World Junior Championship

2021 Guide To the World Junior Championship

Masthead

Newsletters

RSS Feeds

Privacy Statement

Contact Us

About THW…

Founded in 2009, The Hockey Writers is a premier destination for news and information on everything hockey. Updated daily with news and features from over 130 writers worldwide. Over 2 million monthly readers now come to THW for their hockey fix.

© The Hockey Writers 2020. All rights reserved.
logo
  • HOME
  • Hockey Headlines
  • NHL Rumors
  • North Division
    • Calgary Flames
    • Edmonton Oilers
    • Montreal Canadiens
    • Ottawa Senators
    • Toronto Maple Leafs
    • Vancouver Canucks
    • Winnipeg Jets
  • East Division
    • Boston Bruins
    • Buffalo Sabres
    • New Jersey Devils
    • New York Islanders
    • New York Rangers
    • Philadelphia Flyers
    • Pittsburgh Penguins
    • Washington Capitals
  • Central Division
    • Carolina Hurricanes
    • Chicago Blackhawks
    • Columbus Blue Jackets
    • Dallas Stars
    • Detroit Red Wings
    • Florida Panthers
    • Nashville Predators
    • Tampa Bay Lightning
  • West Division
    • Anaheim Ducks
    • Arizona Coyotes
    • Colorado Avalanche
    • Los Angeles Kings
    • Minnesota Wild
    • San Jose Sharks
    • Seattle Kraken
    • St Louis Blues
    • Vegas Golden Knights
  • World Juniors
  • CHL
    • Ontario Hockey League
    • Quebec Major Junior Hockey League
    • Western Hockey League
  • THW Podcast Network
  • Store
  • FREE Newsletter
  • Search THW
  • More…
    • Join Our Team
    • The THW Archives
    • Prospects
    • The Goalie Page
    • NHL Salary Cap Information