Usually, we don’t see many notable trades before the NHL’s holiday roster freeze, which went into effect on Dec. 19 at 11:59 PM. However, a couple of teams decided to get business done ahead of that deadline, namely the Montreal Canadiens and Columbus Blue Jackets.
The Canadiens acquired Phillip Danault from the Los Angeles Kings, a player they’re plenty familiar with, while the Blue Jackets acquired Mason Marchment from the Seattle Kraken. Both the Canadiens and Blue Jackets gave up second-round picks for each player, but neither has had a particularly great season. Does that indicate we’re headed toward a seller’s market ahead of the trade deadline?
Danault & Marchment Acquired for More Than Their Value
It hasn’t been a secret that the Canadiens have been shopping for a center for quite some time. Even with everyone healthy, their center depth behind Nick Suzuki was suspect. That’s why they targeted Danault and gave up a 2026 second-round pick to bring him back to Montreal, but will he help?
Danault has not had a good start to the 2025-26 season. At the time of the trade, he had zero goals and five assists in 30 games with the Kings. Poor finishing has been a major contributor to Danault’s struggles this season. The Kings were only shooting 6.9 percent when he was on the ice at five-on-five, but he also hasn’t been the same player at that game state as he’s been in previous seasons.
Danault had an expected goals share (xG%) of 47.95 percent at five-on-five, a significant dropoff from where he was a season ago. The defensive prowess is still there, but the Kings were only creating 2.30 expected goals per 60 minutes in his five-on-five minutes.
The Canadiens will need some offensive bounce-back in Danault’s game, but there’s reason to believe he can pick it up. He had an individual point percentage of just 16.67 percent with the Kings this season, well below his typical IPP for his career. That’s usually a good indicator that a player will bounce back.
Still, a second-round pick feels like a bit of a high price to pay for someone who doesn’t have a single goal and just five points this season. The same is true of Marchment, who had just four goals and 13 points in 29 games at the time the Blue Jackets acquired him.
The Kraken have slid down the standings after a surprisingly solid start to the season, but they’ve been one of the worst five-on-five teams in the NHL. It’s not a shock they’ve bottomed out, and team impacts could have possibly affected Marchment’s game.
However, even though that may be the case, the Kraken getting a solid return on investment is a bit surprising. They gave up a 2025 third-round pick and a 2026 fourth-round pick to acquire Marchment over the summer, and he’s been much worse this season than he was with the Dallas Stars a season ago.
Obviously, there can’t be any more trades until the roster freeze lifts on Dec. 28, but Marchment and Danault going for second-round picks could be a sign of what’s to come in the trade market ahead of the deadline in early March. They’re not egregious overpays by any stretch, but two players having middling seasons and going for second-round picks sure seems to indicate a seller’s market.
What Could Future Trades Look Like?
There are a couple of factors about why we seem to be headed toward a seller’s market this season. One) In the case of Danault, there are plenty of teams looking for centers, but there isn’t enough supply. A player with five points, even though he may be poised to turn it around, went for a second because he plays a premium position that everyone wants.
What does that mean for someone like Ryan O’Reilly if the Nashville Predators decide to move him? Predators general manager Barry Trotz is reportedly looking for a first-round pick and an A-level prospect for O’Reilly. That may seem outrageous, but it might not be as far off as many of us thought when that report originally surfaced. The Predators can surely get a first-round pick for him, and while an A-level prospect may be a bit much, they can probably still get a decent prospect in return.
Related: Desperate Times Call for Canadiens to Trade for Phillip Danault (Again)
The same applies to Nazem Kadri, too. The Calgary Flames may be 10-4-1 in their last 15 games, but the math is still against them to qualify for the playoffs. If they decide to trade Kadri, he could net the most value of any center dealt ahead of the deadline. The Flames could likely secure a first-round pick, a prospect, and a depth NHLer. He has four years left on his contract at a cap hit of $7 million per year, so that only increases his value.
Another reason we’re likely headed to a seller’s market is that there are not many teams in a position to sell. At least not yet. Every team in the Eastern Conference is above NHL .500, except for the Blue Jackets. There will be separation at some point, but it’s nearly Christmas, and not much has changed in the East through the first two and a half months of the season.
The picture is a bit clearer in the West. The Predators and Flames will likely be sellers at some point, and so will the Kraken. Injuries to Connor Bedard and Frank Nazar will likely have the Chicago Blackhawks in the same position in the next few weeks, too. The Vancouver Canucks, St. Louis Blues and perhaps the Winnipeg Jets may be trending toward selling as well.
All these teams have some attractive options. Could the Blues move a player like Jordan Kyrou? What about Brayden Schenn? The Canucks already dealt Quinn Hughes, but they could look to move others out to retool their roster for next season. As a result, could Conor Garland be a trade target? Aside from O’Reilly, players like Michael Bunting, Steven Stamkos and Jonathan Marchessault could get dealt from Nashville, too.
With so many teams in the playoff race, especially in the East, there could be plenty of buyers. And that’s why trades for players in the mold of a Danault or Marchment could go for more than they would have in past seasons. That could lead to a few trades where buyers end up overpaying because that’s what the market dictates this year.
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