Brett Pesce has been a massive contributor to the New Jersey Devils this season. It’s easy to look at his surface stats – four points in 24 games with a plus-2 rating – and say that he’s been solid, but nothing more.
The word “solid” doesn’t do it justice. He truly has been one of the most important players on a surging Devils team. He’s playing world-class defense, as his 63.69 expected goals for percentage (xGF%) is second among 117 defensemen to play 200-plus minutes in the past month (via Natural Stat Trick). First on the list? His partner Luke Hughes (66.29 xGF%), who has completely transformed his game while playing alongside Pesce.
It’s no surprise; just look at the game of Brady Skjei, Pesce’s previous longtime defensive partner, and how his numbers have dipped away from Pesce.
Brady Skjei Is a Prime Example
With the Carolina Hurricanes, the Skjei and Pesce pairing was a staple for the past few seasons. From 2021-22 through 2023-24, they had an elite 55.23 xGF%, but Skjei was deemed by many to be the better half of the two.
Skjei earned a seven-year, $49 million contract ($7 million AAV) from the Nashville Predators, while Pesce got six years and $33 million ($5.5 million AAV) from the Devils. Fast forward a few months, and it’s been night and day.
Related: New Jersey Devils Players & Keefe Exuding Confidence in System
Skjei has seen his xGF% dip all the way to 45.42%, meaning the Predators are consistently getting out-chanced with him on the ice. Many are of the dangerous variety, as Skjei’s high-danger chance differential is minus-9. When he’s on the ice, the opposition is scoring at a clip 27% higher (2.96 goals per 60 minutes – GA/60) than Pesce’s clip with New Jersey (2.16 GA/60).
For comparison, Pesce’s numbers have risen. His xGF% has jumped to 57.03% and his high-danger chance differential is plus-23. Sure, there are other factors at play, as confidence and adapting to a new system could be part of the struggle for Skjei. But it sure doesn’t seem like a coincidence that Pesce has raised his game after leaving him, while Skjei’s numbers have come crashing down like a poorly played game of Jenga.
Hischier & Keefe Speak Highly of Pesce
Nico Hischier told The Hockey Writers, “If you watch his game, if you’re on the ice with him, you know he’s a guy that’s unbelievable with his stick. He strips pucks from the air, he’s a great defensive guy and obviously you could see he makes plays as well. He’s really calm back there and he’s a great guy to have on our team and not (have to) play against.”
It’s no wonder Hischier would say that, as Pesce had five points in five games against the Devils in the 2023 Stanley Cup Playoffs and was only a minus for one of those five. He could go without notching a single point this season and still have a great impact, solely based on his defense and how he’s transformed Luke Hughes’ overall game, who has eight points in his last 11 while maintaining a plus-5 rating. But Pesce has scored as high as 30 points in his career previously, and that facet of his game is starting to come around now. He has a goal and two assists in his last two games and led the Devils with a plus-4 rating against the Chicago Blackhawks.
Hey shorty, how ya doin? pic.twitter.com/6hSL3tbbLY
— New Jersey Devils (@NJDevils) December 13, 2024
Sheldon Keefe told THW, “I think he’s getting a little more confident making some plays. I know he seems more comfortable with his teammates and kind of knowing where they are and how they move…the best part about Pesce is he knows who he is. He’s not going to change (that). He’s not going to cheat the game defensively in order to create some offense. He’s going to pick his spots really well, and he’s done that, and he’s getting rewarded for it.”
He’s been arguably the best penalty killer on the team as well and has blocked shots ~11% more frequently than his previous best season (2016-17), averaging two per game, which is in the ~90th percentile of NHL skaters.
Best of all, he’s feeling right at home as Prudential Center is just ~15 miles away from where he played youth hockey in Hackensack for the Jersey Hitmen. His father Brian recently tweeted, “Couldn’t be more happy he’s a NJ Devil. Brett absolutely loves it here!”
The Devils as a whole have bought into Keefe’s system, but a coach is only as good as his players. And it’s clear that with the addition of Pesce, the Devils’ defense is much better off.
