There appears to be a mass exodus coming in Calgary. The Flames have several players with a year remaining on their contracts, and most are reportedly not likely to re-sign beyond this season. That includes Noah Hanifin, Mikael Backlund and Elias Lindholm. But the one player that could interest the New Jersey Devils is Tyler Toffoli.
Late yesterday afternoon, Frank Seravalli reported that Toffoli does not plan on re-signing with the Flames. Soon afterward, Elliotte Friedman tweeted that the Flames are making Toffoli available for trade:
Toffoli is coming off the best season of his career, finishing with 34 goals and 73 points in 82 games. He has a cap hit of $4.25 million for the final year of his contract but only a $3.5 million salary. That’s one reason he should appeal to the Devils after re-signing Jesper Bratt and, eventually, Timo Meier to eight-year extensions. But there’s much more than financial reasons for him being a fit in New Jersey.
Toffoli an Underrated Top-6 Winger
Even though the Devils have Bratt, Meier, Jack Hughes and Nico Hischier, adding some scoring should be on their to-do list this summer. Some free-agent wingers make sense for the Devils, but the best option for general manager Tom Fitzgerald would be to swing a trade, given the weak crop of scorers in free agency.
It didn’t look like Toffoli would become available this summer, but with everyone seemingly wanting out of Calgary, he now joins what should be an active trade market. Though he might not repeat the season he had, he’s capable of doing it. Over the last three seasons, he’s averaged 32 goals and 65 points per 82 games. And when looking at his underlying numbers, he’s been one of the most underrated wingers in the league.
Since the COVID-shortened 2020-21 season, Toffoli has an expected goals percentage (xG%) of 53.92 percent. When looking at his microstats, it’s easy to see why his teams have been better with him on the ice rather than off. He’s one of the best players in the NHL in creating in-zone offense, ranking in the 99th percentile. He also ranks in the 94th percentile in shots off high-danger passes.
For a team with Jack Hughes, Bratt and Hischier, Toffoli would be a perfect complement as a scorer. He can create his own shots, but he’d also generate quality chances off looks from his linemates. He isn’t the best passer in the world, but the Devils already have enough quality playmakers.
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If Fitzgerald adds another top-nine or -six forward, it needs to be a goal scorer, and Toffoli is that. He’s averaged 0.93 goals per 60 minutes at five-on-five, the same rate as Johnny Gaudreau and Troy Terry over the last three seasons. He’s been an efficient scorer at that game state and can contribute to the power play.
Not only does Toffoli excel at the shooting and scoring part of the game, but he can also play off the rush. He ranked in the 93rd percentile in zone exits, so he can break out of the defensive zone cleanly. He struggles with zone entries, but that shouldn’t be an issue with Hughes, Bratt, Hischier and Meier, who can take care of that part of the game.
What Could It Cost To Acquire Toffoli?
When looking at the team’s roster needs, a right-shot winger who can play in the top-six makes Toffoli an ideal fit. Bratt plays on the right side, then there’s Dawson Mercer, who had an impressive sophomore season in the NHL. After those two, there are some question marks. Nathan Bastian is a restricted free agent. Chances are he’ll be back, but he won’t play higher than the fourth line. That leaves an open spot for a third-line right wing, at a minimum.
I’m sure the Devils would love for Alexander Holtz to earn a spot out of training camp, but they’re in win-now mode. If the opportunity to acquire Toffoli presents itself, they can’t pass up on it to save room for a prospect (there are still ways to find a place for Holtz too). Because when a player has this kind of value at his cap hit, you have to give serious thought to acquiring him:
There’s no doubting Toffoli’s fit with the Devils, but what would it take to acquire him? In most cases, a player having only a year left on his contract before becoming an unrestricted free agent would lower his value. But with his cap hit only being $4.25 million and his base salary sitting at $3.5 million, that only increases his value, given the season he had.
This isn’t a unique situation, so there are some comparables to look toward, one being when the Flames acquired Toffoli from the Montreal Canadiens at the 2022 trade deadline. That resulted in the Canadiens netting a first-round pick in the 2022 draft, a former second-round pick in Emil Heineman, and a fifth-round selection in the 2023 draft.
That’s probably a good starting point for a trade here, but given his career season, it should cost a bit more to trade for Toffoli now. The Devils can’t deal their 2024 first-round pick due to conditions from acquiring Meier from the San Jose Sharks; if the Devils make the Eastern Conference Final in 2024, the conditional 2024 second becomes a first. They do have their 2025 first-rounder, and since they should be a playoff team from here on out, they shouldn’t be afraid to deal firsts for NHL talent since the picks will likely be late firsts.
Heineman still had second-round value at the time the Flames acquired Toffoli. It isn’t a secret that the Devils are looking to trade Yegor Sharangovich. I’d guess the Flames would want more of a futures package for Toffoli to start a rebuild rather than receiving NHL talent in return. But if they plan on retooling, Sharangovich is only 25 years old and could be a young player the Flames value — a first and Sharangovich could come close to getting a deal done.
If not, a prospect is likely heading back the other way. I can’t see the Devils parting with Holtz for Toffoli unless it’s a guarantee Toffoli is in New Jersey beyond 2023-24. Based on the previously mentioned deal between the Flames and Canadiens, Seamus Casey could come closest in value to Heineman. Add another pick, perhaps a 2023 second or third, and that probably gets close to a futures package required to obtain Toffoli’s services.
Toffoli’s Cap Hit Gives the Devils Room to Add
Time will tell if the Devils make a serious push for Toffoli. Fitzgerald has been active on the trade market, having already talked with the Winnipeg Jets about Connor Hellebuyck. Given Toffoli’s cap hit of $4.25 million, he’d be the ideal fit for the Devils if they want to add a top-six scorer this summer. They can re-sign Bratt and Meier and acquire Toffoli while still having money to make other additions, like signing a depth defender or another goalie in free agency to pair up with Vitek Vanecek.
Not only does Toffoli fit in with the Devils’ financial situation, but he fills a roster need too. There’s probably a bit of uneasiness about acquiring him with only one year left on his contract. But it’s worth the risk since he’d provide a significant scoring upgrade at right wing. The Carolina Hurricanes make these types of trade fairly often, and if the Devils want to overtake the Metropolitan Division from them in 2023-24, they might have to take a page out of their book.
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Advanced stats from Natural Stat Trick, microstats from Corey Sznajder/JFresh Hockey
