The 2023 NHL Draft Lottery left the Anaheim Ducks one selection short of the right to select Connor Bedard, who is as close to a guaranteed generational talent as one can get. This of course came 18 years after the Ducks fell one pick short of the opportunity to select Sidney Crosby in 2005.
The Ducks were just fine missing out on the Crosby sweepstakes. As for the lottery outcome in 2023, that disappointment too was appropriately short-lived because Leo Carlsson wound up a Duck, and he has done nothing but flash superstar potential, like Bedard has, ever since. Carlsson is up next in our September series, so let’s talk expectations for the young Swede as he enters his sophomore season in the NHL.
Carlsson Pick Was Surprising but Shaping Up Quite Nicely
Ducks general manager Pat Verbeek surprised many when he took Carlsson over presumptive second-overall pick Adam Fantilli in the 2023 NHL Entry Draft. Fantilli, after all, had one of the best college hockey seasons ever and won the Hobey Baker Award for best player in college hockey. But if you listened to Verbeek’s comments immediately following the draft, it was easy to see why Carlsson, not Fantilli, was the right choice. He said, “[…] he’s got really good size and probably what I loved about him is really his two-way game, and I think there’s a potential for him to really be a dominant player at both ends of the ice.”
As high on Carlsson as he was, Verbeek was less so on putting him into NHL action right away, which spurred a “personal development plan“, that would ease him into the professional game. Players making their debut between the ages of 18-20 are particularly vulnerable to the heightened speed and physicality at the professional level, so there was good reason to be cautious. Look no further than 2022 first-overall pick Juraj Slafkovsky of the Montreal Canadiens, who suffered a bad knee injury 40 games into his career and missed the second half of his rookie season.
Even with Verbeek’s caution and good intentions, Carlsson was not spared from the brutality of NHL action and suffered a number of injuries in 2023-24, including a couple of major knee injury scares and a concussion. However, he finished the last month of the season healthy and concluded his rookie campaign with a stat line of 12 goals and 17 assists in 55 games played, good for a points-per-game (P/G) average of .52. Let us not focus on the time he missed, but rather how he looked when healthy, which was fast, skilled, and dynamic, not to mention fit for the duties of a top-line center role for the next 10-plus years in Anaheim.
Carlsson Impressed with Blend of Speed, Passing, and Finishing Ability
Carlsson flashed elite potential throughout his rookie campaign with his ability to facilitate, generate offense (and back opposing defenses up) on his own with his speed and puck handling, and convert opportunities in all areas of the offensive zone. It all started with his NHL debut, when he scored his first career goal off a perfectly executed two-on-one with Troy Terry. He corralled the pass and shot without breaking stride, like a veteran goal-scorer. It wasn’t long after that that he scored his first career hat trick in a loss to the Philadelphia Flyers. He had five multi-point games. He had a game-winner in a shootout. The list of stats goes on and will only get better.
Related: Ducks September Series: 2024-25 Expectations for Troy Terry
Carlsson has impressive speed for a player of his size (6-foot-3). He can carry the puck without compromising that speed, which is even more impressive. He has all the offensive instincts you want in a top-line centerman, and the intelligence, understanding, and desire to be a complete, 200-foot player. Don’t be surprised if he contends for a Frank J. Selke Trophy, annually awarded to the NHL’s best defensive forward, at some point in his career.
Who Does He Line Up with Going Forward?
The insertion of a healthy Trevor Zegras and elite goal-scoring prospect Cutter Gauthier into the lineup means the Ducks will be flush with options to pair with Carlsson on the top line. Terry and Alex Killorn played most of the 2023-24 campaign with him, but all options should be on the table going forward. Terry played his best hockey when he flanked Carlsson, so it makes sense to give the pair another look. But to complete the line, there are many ways to make it skilled, diverse, and dangerous. Of the bunch, Killorn is a gritty veteran that can complement a skilled pairing with his compete below the dots and ability to play in small areas. He also has some scoring touch left of his own. Even if this is true, do you really give a coveted top-line spot to Killorn given the other forwards you need to find ice time for? Chemistry and well-roundedness are important, so it’s an interesting question.
If you want to flank Carlsson with finishers who will benefit from Carlsson’s ability to distribute, then Terry and Gauthier make sense. The Ducks sacrificed Jamie Drysdale to get the latter, so it would behoove them to see what they have with Gauthier right away. The best way to do that would be to place him alongside other talent. That said, Zegras is still the best playmaker the Ducks have, so he should be in consideration for a top-line role no matter who else is on it. He demonstrated as much in his limited game action last season. No matter where you look, the Ducks are in a good place to evaluate the best way to maximize Carlsson’s abilities and set him up to reach stardom in 2024-25.
Expect Carlsson to Reach New Heights in 2024-25
Carlsson will be one of the primary drivers of the Ducks’ attack this season. He’ll be a key cog on a power play that should be much improved and is bound to feature the likes of Carlsson, Zegras, Mason McTavish, Terry, Gauthier, Pavel Mintyukov, and Olen Zellweger. If that group clicks, good luck stopping them. It has real potential.
With a long offseason of training, and a rookie season in the rearview mirror, expect the 20-year-old Swede to shine, razzle, and dazzle his way to a dominant sophomore campaign. Health permitting, there’s no reason his production can’t keep up with Bedard and Fantilli, whose teams don’t have the same forward depth as the Ducks. Call me crazy, but Carlsson should be able to double his output, at minimum, and produce a 55–60-point season.
