It’s October, which means regular-season NHL hockey is just around the corner. Last season, the Toronto Maple Leafs, Washington Capitals, Winnipeg Jets and Vegas Golden Knights won their respective divisions. Who will come out on top in each division in 2025-26? Here are the favorites heading into the new season, with one team that could pose the biggest threat to them.
Atlantic Division: Tampa Bay Lightning
A couple of weeks ago, I would have said the Florida Panthers are the favorites to win the Atlantic, but there have been some changes. The Panthers will already be without Matthew Tkachuk for the first 2-3 months of the season, but Aleksander Barkov being out for 7-9 months with a torn ACL and MCL certainly changes the trajectory of the Panthers. That’s not to say they won’t be a playoff team, but they will miss not having Barkov, who’s arguably the best two-way center in the NHL.
That opens the door for someone to take the crown in the Atlantic, and no team may be better suited than the Tampa Bay Lightning. Their core, although aging, is still performing at a high level, and they possess the overall talent to win the division. Nikita Kucherov is regularly in the running for the Art Ross, but the high-end talent doesn’t end there. Brayden Point, Jake Guentzel, Andrei Vasilevskiy and Victor Hedman may give the Lightning the best core in the Atlantic with Tkachuk and Barkov out long-term.
Even the Lightning’s depth, which consists of players like Oliver Bjorkstrand, Nick Paul and Anthony Cirelli, should be enough to put the Lightning over the edge. It wouldn’t surprise me if they’re pushing for close to 105-110 points by the end of the season.
Who Can Challenge the Lightning for First?
The Panthers’ injuries may be too much to overcome to take a run at first place, though they should still be a playoff team. While the Maple Leafs are likely due for some regression this season, they may pose the biggest threat to the Lightning in the Atlantic.
Even though Mitch Marner signed with the Golden Knights in free agency, the Maple Leafs still have a solid core in Auston Matthews, John Tavares and William Nylander. Matthew Knies looks like a solid complement in the top six, and the Maple Leafs’ netminding tandem of Joseph Woll and Anthony Stolarz is one of the more underrated duos in the NHL.
The key for the Maple Leafs is improving at five-on-five. They finished in the bottom third in expected goals share (xG%) last season and mostly got by due to their stellar goaltending and lethal power play. That’s generally not a formula for sustained success from year to year, so they will need to be better at five-on-five. If they are, they can challenge the Lightning for first.
Metropolitan Division: Carolina Hurricanes
The Metropolitan Division is the weakest it’s been in years, but the Carolina Hurricanes are one of the only teams that have not fallen off much. They added some scoring talent by signing Nikolaj Ehlers in free agency and shored up their defense by acquiring K’Andre Miller in a trade with the New York Rangers.
There’s no question the Hurricanes are the most talented team in the Metro. They’re the heavy favorites to win it for a reason, but they’re not without some flaws. They’re one Sebastian Aho injury away from first-line center Jordan Staal, and their goaltending is a significant question mark. Still, the Hurricanes’ top-to-bottom depth appears unmatched in the Metro. They’re not a guarantee to win the division, but it’d be a surprise if they didn’t.
Who Can Challenge the Hurricanes for First?
The Washington Capitals won the Metro with 111 points a season ago, but there could be some hard regression for them this season. That’s not to say they’ll miss the playoffs, but their over/under is set at 94.5 for a reason. If there’s a team that can challenge the Hurricanes, it should be the New Jersey Devils.
Related: How the NHL’s Metropolitan Division Became the Worst
The key for the Devils is the health of Jack Hughes. He’s played in just 62 games in each of the last two seasons due to shoulder injuries. If that’s the case again, they’re more likely to be in a battle for a wild-card spot than first place. But if Hughes stays healthy, the talent is there. Their depth should be improved with the additions of Evgenii Dadonov, Connor Brown and Arseny Gritsyuk, and their defense and goaltending should be among the best in the Metro. It’ll take some work to catch the Hurricanes, but they’re the Metro team best suited to give the Hurricanes a run for their money.
Central Division: Dallas Stars
The Central is arguably the best in the NHL, with as many as six teams that could compete for playoff spots. The Jets had a season for the ages in 2024-25, winning the Presidents’ Trophy and the Central Division crown, but it’ll be hard to repeat those efforts. They should still be a playoff team, but the Dallas Stars look best-equipped for a Central Division title this season.
There aren’t many teams that can compete with the center depth the Stars have; how many clubs can boast a player like Wyatt Johnston as a 3C? Plus, there are two star players on the wing in Mikko Rantanen and Jason Robertson. They have two No. 1 defensemen in Miro Heiskanen and Thomas Harley, and their goaltending should be top 10 in the NHL. Despite the coaching change, they should still be one of the top five-on-five teams in the NHL; it’d be a surprise if they weren’t with their roster.
Who Can Challenge the Stars for First?
Though the Stars should be the favorites to win the Central, I wouldn’t argue with you if you have the Colorado Avalanche taking the crown. Nathan MacKinnon is a top-three player in the NHL, and Cale Makar is arguably the best defenseman in the league. There are some questions about the Avalanche’s depth, but their high-end talent is among the elite. The race for the Central should come down to the wire between these two teams, and it would not shock me if the Avalanche won it.
Pacific Division: Vegas Golden Knights
Adding a player of Marner’s caliber will only help the Golden Knights, who already have one of the best rosters in the NHL. Marner has been one of the most valuable players in the league for quite some time, with his play generally being worth an additional 2-3 wins per season. Combine that with the talent the Golden Knights already have, and they should be the favorites to win the Pacific.
If there’s a team that can match the Stars’ center depth, it’s the Golden Knights with Jack Eichel, Tomas Hertl and William Karlsson. On the wing, there’s more than just Marner. There’s Mark Stone, an emerging top goal-scorer in Pavel Dorofeyev, and Ivan Barbashev. They may miss Alex Pietrangelo, whose playing career may be over, but this team could hit the 110-point mark if they stay healthy.
Who Can Challenge the Golden Knights for First?
This is probably obvious, but the Edmonton Oilers pose the greatest threat to the Golden Knights in the Pacific Division. Any time you have two of the best players in the world in Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl, you will always have a shot at winning your division.
However, the Oilers are not without some concerns. Goaltending remains a question mark, but they’re also one of the older teams in the NHL. They’ve played plenty of hockey the last two seasons, so could that catch up to them? Luckily, there don’t appear to be any other serious threats in the Pacific.
The Los Angeles Kings should be a playoff team, but they might not even challenge for second place this season. Bottom-feeders like the San Jose Sharks, and especially the Anaheim Ducks, have improved, so there won’t be as many freebies when playing against the bottom of the division. But that still shouldn’t matter for the Oilers. Their high-end talent should keep them in the race for first.
The Panthers’ injuries have added a new wrinkle to the division favorites, but there could be some turnover in the division winners this season. It’ll be interesting to see how it plays out in what should be an exciting 2025-26 NHL season.
