What is the only thing worse than having your franchise center, former first-overall draft pick injured and out of the lineup indefinitely? Having both of your franchise centers, first-overall draft picks out indefinitely. This is where the New Jersey Devils currently reside, in limbo waiting for the return of their top two skaters.
Thus far, they have weathered the storm, returning with a 2-2 record from a four-game swing through the Midwest, but with important Metropolitan Division games looming in the next ten days, they need to play better or risk falling behind. Here are four areas that hold the key to not only surviving but thriving in the absence of Nico Hischier and Jack Hughes.
Devils Must Maintain Power Play Dominance
The Devils needed to weaponize their elite offensive talent, and after years stuck in the middle of the pack in power-play percentage, they have found the right mix of creativity and balance to lead the NHL in power-play success. Through 12 games, they are seven percentage points clear of the league.
They have maintained their dominance even in the absence of Hughes and Hischier and must continue to find goals here as 5v5 goals have been, and will likely continue to be, tough to come by in the absence of their 1C and 2C. The team has scored 22 goals at even strength and 19 on the power play. To remain atop the Metro they will need to stay dominant with the man advantage.
The talent is still there. A power play with Dougie Hamilton, Timo Meier, Jesper Bratt, and Tyler Toffoli would likely be a top-ten unit in the league. Last game, against the Colorado Avalanche on Tuesday (Nov. 7), the group produced two power-play goals, keeping the team in the game through two periods. This is the time and place for Hamilton and Toffoli to make their biggest impact. Hamilton is an elite power-play quarterback, and while Luke Hughes has paired well with the top group, it may be time to reunite Hamilton’s seeing-eye slapshot with the top unit permanently.
Devils’ Secondary Stars Need to Shine
Many have ranked the Devils’ forward group among the deepest and best in the NHL. While, before the season, it seemed easy to pencil Hischier and Hughes in for at least 175 points combined, the roster is not devoid of other talent. The rest of the group contains six additional forwards who have each scored at least 23 goals in a season. Scoring should not be a problem, but it is a bad time for any of them to slump, and imperative that players like Dawson Mercer regain their form, quickly.
In three games since Hughes was injured, Bratt, Toffoli, Michael McLeod, and Palat have xGF% over 60. Despite dominating play, when on-ice, the Devils have scored four times while giving up four goals. That balance has to change if the team is going to stay in the playoff picture.
The team can’t go another three games, hoping that Curtis Lazar continues his torrid two-goals-in-three-game streak. Other than Lazar, the only forwards to score at 5v5 during the three-game stretch are journeyman Max Willman and Toffoli, with one each. On balance, the stats show a team that is out-chancing (83-68), getting more high-risk chances (42-27) yet being outscored (7-4). the bottom line is they need to find ways to convert more of these opportunities. Getting tangible results from Bratt, Meier, Palat, Mercer, and Haula is critical right now for New Jersey.
Devils Must Fix the Defense, Fast
The Devils surrendered an unsustainable amount of odd-man rushes to the Avalanche on Tuesday. After the game, much of the chatter surrounding the team was that, outside of the power play, they simply were not playing well enough to contend. To a man, the team, coaching staff, and management have all conceded that they are blowing defensive coverages and need to make the individual effort to play a better team game of defense.
As the numbers cited above show, they are giving up more goals while allowing fewer opportunities, which means that they are either not getting goaltending or they are giving up way too many grade-A chances that teams are cashing in on. To the eye, it appears to be the latter, as the goaltending, while not Vezina-caliber, has not been the reason for the losses.
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Defending is a full team effort, and placing blame solely on the defensemen is a mistake. Last season, the team’s group defensive effort was the key to their ascension. Thus far, they have overcome a start where they have a -9 differential at 5v5 over 12 games, but as the power play will likely regress, the Devils will need to take advantage of 5v5 soon.
With players like Hamilton and Luke Hughes looking to jump-start the offense by joining rushes or pinching deep in the offensive zone, it is incumbent on the forwards to make sure they are rotating behind the defensemen and backchecking after changes of possession. They also need to be more careful in the defensive and neutral zones, as those turnovers seem to lead to a disproportionate amount of goals.
The return of Tomas Nosek at practice on Thursday gives the Devils hope that there will be reinforcements coming soon. Nosek would add another experienced, defense-first forward and allow head coach Lindy Ruff to scratch players who are underperforming or need a break due to nagging injuries. It is unlikely the Devils look to supplement the team from outside the organization, as it seems Hischier, Hughes, and Colin Miller will return and provide depth by December, but their defensive breakdowns have existed all season and need to be addressed.
Vanecek and Schmid
Devils goalies Vitek Vanecek and Akira Schmid essentially are who we thought they were. Their performances throughout the young season have ranged from spectacular to solid to, at times, poor. Since Hughes went down, goals are now at a premium, and the team needs the goalies to quickly restore their regular season form of a year ago.
After a three-game break, Schmid returned to that form spectacularly holding the St. Louis Blues to two goals on 28 shots on Friday (Nov. 3), keeping the Devils in the game throughout. He saved .55 goals above expected and put up a .929 SV% at 5v5. These numbers are still below his last season output but should he sustain something in that range, the Devils will have a chance.
Vanecek rode a four-game winning streak into the game against the Avalanche. He proceeded to give up .5 goals above expected at 5v5 and posted a .857 SV%. It is difficult to judge him on this game, as the team surrendered an inordinate number of high-danger and odd-man chances that left Vanecek needing a Herculean effort to just keep the team competitive.
All three of his 5v5 goals against were on high-danger chances and had he not been locked in, it could have been much worse, as he stopped five of eight of these opportunities. He helped steal a game in Chicago against the Blackhawks on Saturday and may need to steal a few more while the centers recuperate. Consistent, solid, and occasionally spectacular goaltending is what the Devils need, and what Vanecek is capable of producing.
Every team faces critical junctures throughout a season when they need players to step up. The Devils have attempted to adopt a “next man up” mentality as they battle through catastrophic injuries. The fortunate part is they have the answers in-house with a group of talented, experienced players who can provide enough scoring to tread water in the absence of Hischier and Hughes.
The unfortunate part is they don’t have a clear picture of how long they need to tread water. This is the point in a season when players can cement their status on the team and show that they can be counted on when it matters. The sky is not falling for the Devils, they are 7-4-1, have the third-best points percentage in the league as of Nov. 8, and are well within a playoff spot. How they play over the next two weeks will go a long way to determining whether they are still being chased or become the pursuers as the season progresses.
