The Vegas Golden Knights had about as good of a start to the 2023-24 regular season as they could’ve asked for, winning 11 of their first 12 games and taking points in each game up until their first regulation loss to the Anaheim Ducks on Nov. 5. However, things haven’t been going as well lately. They’ve lost eight of their last 12 games with a 4-5-3 record and have only managed to score seven five-on-five goals in their last six games, with all seven being scored in their last two.
With the Vancouver Canucks and Los Angeles Kings continuing to pressure the Golden Knights for the top spot in the Pacific Division, should fans be concerned that their recent struggles may lead to bigger worries later in the season? Absolutely not.
Golden Knights’ Scoring Issues
The biggest problem for the Golden Knights has been the results, not the process. The lack of goals at even strength shouldn’t be a big concern because they’ve still been able to generate a ton of scoring chances. In fact, the numbers may actually suggest that they have been doing better than they were to start the season at generating offensive chances.
Despite the results being much better than they have been as of late, the Golden Knights were 17th in scoring chances per-60 at 5-on-5 (SCF/60) and were 18th in high-danger chances per-60 at 5-on-5 (HDCF/60) in the 12 games before their first regulation loss. During this recent 12-game stretch, the Golden Knights are sixth in the league in SCF/60, and are eighth in HDCF/60.
As for expected goals, the Golden Knights have also improved at even strength. They were 24th in expected goals per-60 at 5-on-5 (xGF/60) in their opening 12 games and are eighth in the league over their last 12 games. So why hasn’t the scoring come as easy as it did before? Well, it’s mostly because they were converting on their chances at an incredibly high rate.
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In their opening 12 games, they scored 51 goals for a league-leading average of 4.25 goals per game (GF/GP). They scored three or more goals in every game and were somehow 24th in shots on goal per game (S/GP). With their shooting rate being so low and their scoring rate being so high, it was inevitable that there was going to be some regression at some point, although nobody could’ve anticipated such a big change.
Over their last 12 games, they are first in S/GP with an average of 34.5 and are 30th in GF/GP with 2.33. It’s hard to really comprehend just how bad their luck has been during this stretch, but if they continue to generate offense in the way that they have, things will eventually bounce their way.
Defense and Goaltending Staying Strong
We can’t have a conversation about the Golden Knights’ ability to stop teams from scoring without starting with how incredible their goaltending has been. Adin Hill leads all starting goaltenders with a .935 save percentage (SV%) and also leads goaltenders with a 1.87 goals-against average (GAA).
Hill also leads all goaltenders in goals saved above expected (GSAx), which is a stat that shows the difference between the total expected goals a goaltender has faced and the actual goals they’ve allowed. Logan Thompson isn’t far behind Hill in any of these categories, carrying a .916 SV%, and 2.49 GAA, while also sitting 10th in GSAx among goalies with 10 or more games played.
While their offensive production has done a complete flip, their defense has been extremely consistent. The Golden Knights have given up 57 goals in 24 games for an average of 2.38 GA/GP, which is second-best in the NHL behind the Kings. In their opening 12 games, they were fourth in the league with an average of 2.15 GA/GP, and they slightly dipped to eighth with an average of 2.75 in their last 12 games.
The scoring chances against (SCA) have been almost exactly the same as well, allowing an average of 15.1 SCA over their last 12 games as opposed to the 14.8 they gave up in their opening 12 games. This is pretty impressive, given the injuries that the Golden Knights have dealt with to their defensive core early on, with their top six only playing together in a few games this entire season.
With Hill being taken out of their last game against the Canucks for precautionary reasons, it’s likely that Thompson will carry a bigger load over the next few games. But if the Golden Knights can continue to play as structurally well defensively as they have, there shouldn’t be any cause for concern.
Final Thoughts
Every team experiences the highs and lows of the NHL season, and this has happened to be a particularly rough stretch for the Golden Knights. Their defensive structure has still been solid, their goaltending has been among the best in the league, and aside from a lack of scoring, their winning habits have kept them in almost every game they’ve played this season.
With two consecutive wins against the Vancouver Canucks and the Washington Capitals this weekend, the Golden Knights have an opportunity to get their scoring back to normal after a stretch of games against some much weaker opponents. With games against the San Jose Sharks, Buffalo Sabres, and Calgary Flames all within the next two weeks, the Golden Knights can rewrite the narrative of being in a slump very quickly.
All stats and analytics used in this article courtesy of NaturalStatTrick.com and MoneyPuck.com
