The offseason is in full swing and all the big moves are in the rearview mirror. The New York Islanders for the most part will return a similar roster to the one they had last year. They re-signed their unrestricted free agents (UFAs) and extended Ilya Sorokin but didn’t acquire any players in free agency or in a trade.
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With a veteran-heavy team and a lot of key players playing integral roles, the Islanders can’t afford to have players regress. If a few take a step back, the Islanders can both miss the playoffs and finish near the bottom of the Eastern Conference this season. The one player, in particular, they can’t afford to regress is arguably their most valuable, the one in between the pipes.
Ilya Sorokin
Ilya Sorokin had a Vezina Trophy-caliber season last year. With a .924 save percentage (SV%) and a 2.34 goals-against average (GAA) on 1,838 shots, he finished in second place in the Vezina voting and singlehandedly carried the Islanders. His lights-out performances, which included six shutouts, propelled the team to the playoffs, allowing them to earn a wild card spot in the Eastern Conference.
The Islanders didn’t make any moves in the offseason, making it easy to think that they won’t be competitive this season, especially since the core is older and aging out of contention. However, Sorokin’s presence in the net gives the Islanders a chance to win on a nightly basis and makes them a playoff-caliber team.
With the Islanders relying on Sorokin to propel them to the playoffs, a down year is all the more costly. He doesn’t need to be a Vezina finalist again but a rough season will have the Islanders near the bottom of the Eastern Conference. Yes, the team has a reliable backup in veteran Semyon Varlamov, who signed a four-year contract this summer, but at 35 years old, he can only play a minimal role in the net. Sorokin needs to not only start the majority of the games but continue to play at a high level to keep the team competitive.
Brock Nelson
Brock Nelson has been the Islanders’ best skater in the past few seasons and his elite play was finally recognized last year as he was selected for the All-Star Game. He led the team in both goals and assists with 36 and 39 respectively and in the past two years, he scored 73 goals.
Since turning 30, he’s played his best hockey, a reversal from the normal trend where players regress once they reach that age. For Nelson, he’s not only honed in all his scoring skill sets but he’s become a center that can impact the game in a variety of ways. He can gash opponents on the rush or with a methodical attack in the offensive zone. He finds open skaters with quick passes but can also find the back of the net with a quick shot. His versatility made him one of the bright spots in the first round as he scored two goals and three assists against the Carolina Hurricanes, who defeated the Islanders in six games.
Nelson’s been playing at a high level in recent years but the Islanders have gotten used to his production. If he takes a step back, at 32 years old, the entire offense could fall apart. He makes the skaters around him better and centering a top-six line, he often carries the offense. The past two seasons have been a pleasant surprise, with Nelson eclipsing the 30-goal mark each year, but now, the Islanders are counting on him to have a similar season in 2023-24.
Anders Lee
This can be the season when age catches up to Anders Lee. He’s 33 and has taken a beating in the past few years. Halfway through the 2020-21 season, he tore his ACL and missed the second half of the season. He returned at the start of the 2021-22 season but it took a few months for him to return to form. Moreover, Lee’s style of play, fighting for loose pucks and finishing scoring chances near the net, has forced him to take extra hits and a more physical toll.
Lee’s been one of the Islanders’ best scorers and needs to continue to find the back of the net this season. He scored 20 goals or more in each of the last two seasons and in six of the last seven. However, a dropoff from him could leave the Islanders without a finisher in their forward unit. He is the skater that can find the back of the net in the dirty areas and without a player like him in their top-six, the offense can fall apart.
Other Islanders That Can’t Afford a Regression
Mathew Barzal is coming back from an injury and is expected to take a big leap this season, especially playing alongside Bo Horvat. He’s the team’s best skater and most dynamic playmaker, proving he has the ability to emerge as an elite player. The problem is if Barzal fails to do so, he’ll leave the Islanders’ offense a step behind.
The defensive unit has been integral to the Islanders’ success in recent years and it needs to continue to play well to keep the team competitive. A falloff from any skater on the defense could unravel the season and a disappointing campaign from Scott Mayfield would be particularly concerning considering he signed a seven-year deal this offseason.
The Islanders have a roster built on depth which helped them reach the Stanley Cup Semifinals in 2020 and 2021. Their depth gives them an advantage on a nightly basis but to compete for the Cup, they’ll need the entire roster to step up and they can’t afford to have disappointing seasons from any of their players.
